March 2nd 2012 in like a lion!! HIGH RISK

looking at the last frame on the 0znam... sub 996 over nw arkie, thats before it really stats to bomb out also...i saw a skwe chart posted of that run for kmem. i just dropped my jaw

Eric wrote:So...temps looks good. Moisture looks good. Shear looks good. Synoptic setup looks good. Instability looks good. Is this setup conducive to a severe weather outbreak? I'm going to say yes....but will it happen? That's the $64,000 question.

I like the way you talk.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
600 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-291130-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
600 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT NEAR
THE TENNESSEE RIVER...MAINLY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
MIDDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WIND IS THE MAIN THREAT
BUT STRONG SHEAR MAY ALSO LEAD TO ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

REPORTS FROM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED.

$$

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

07

Be carefeul out there Bruce and DW







Here is the new day two it seems close to the same

Toot wrote:Be carefeul out there Bruce and DW







Here is the new day two it seems close to the same

Wow. Yea I didn't see the tornado risk at 10%. (At work and tired) Please stay safe and keep us updated.

The latest Tor:Con from Dr. Forbes this Tuesday A.M. 6:15.
Tuesday February 28

AR west - 4
AR night - 3 to 4
IL south night - 3
IN southwest night - 3
KS central, northeast - 3
KS southeast - 3
KY west night - 3
MO southwest - 3
MO central, south night - 3
NE south-central, southeast - 3
OK central - 3
OK east - 4
TN west night - 3
TX north-central - 3
TX northeast - 2
Other areas - less than 2

Tuesday Night February 28

AR northeast - 4
KY west - 4
MO southeast (only) - 3 to 4
TN west - 3 to 4

Wednesday February 29

AL north - 3
AR east, south - 3
GA northwest - 3
IN east, south - 3
KY - 4
LA north half - 3
MI southeast - 3
MS north, central - 3
NC west - 3
OH - 3
PA west - 3
TN - 4
TX east-central - 3
VA southwest - 3
WV - 3
Other areas - less than 2

Toot wrote:Be carefeul out there Bruce and DW

I have got my eye on it. Been busy with work. I will be here tonight with updates.

Wednesday's event is still on track, IMO, to still be a standard Dixie Alley SLGT risk, with wind and hail being the main threats, but an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Thunder should begin in earnest around 3pm (+/- an hour or two) E of I-65. 12z NAM is way aggressive with instabiity values (~2000j/kg), so I'm choosing to go with a 12z GFS/09z SREF blend of about half that. Thermodynamics look good with all points well close to 70F with dew points in the low-to-mid 60s. Unfortunately (or fortunately - whichever camp you fall into), thermodynamics are the only thing that really look good for tomorrow. The distance between TN and the SLP in Minnesota is really mitigating the severe chances for Wednesday.

Here's my look at Friday...the show should begin in earnest over areas of West TN by lunchtime, with storm motion being NE while the entire system pushes E. Initial storm mode appears to be discrete, but should transition to more of a multi-cellular look. Do not be surprised, though, if these multi-cells put down a tornado or two as they undergo a transition to more of a QLCS-type structure. While helicity values aren't that impressive, they are substantial enough to allow for rotating updrafts.

Both the 12z GFS and 12z NAM paint a bulls-eye of +2000j/kg over the majority of Mid TN by 3pm on Friday. The mid-layers of the atmosphere continue to remain free of moisture from about 6am throughout the afternoon, with a nuclear cap that should erode slowly as the temperatures rise. That should allow for a mostly sunny afternoon ahead of the convection, which will drive the temps up. Dew points look good as well, with the entire warm sector sitting in the mid-60s.

i will say that anyone who looks at the NAM skew-Ts should, at least at this juncture, do so with a grain of salt. They are vastly different (i.e. overly more dramatic) than the GFS at the timeframe. As some have noted already, that is perhaps due to the NAM being at the far end of it's resolution. I'm inclined to agree.

In summary, while Friday doesn't look like a red-letter day, IMO, there will be a few tornadoes, with magnitude left to be determined. Synoptically speaking, everything appears to be lining up for a low-end MDT risk for areas of Dixie Alley, and future models runs will help narrow that area down. Until then, be sure to go over your severe weather plan now...if you don't have one, get one.

12z NCAR WRF sim radar looks a little sexy for tomorrows system

Frame 10





Meanwhile discrete action is popping out west

So thats at 4am tomorrow morning? I thought this would be here till like lunchtime it looks like from that image that it will be out before morning rush hour.

mmm...eggs wrote:So thats at 4am tomorrow morning? I thought this would be here till like lunchtime it looks like from that image that it will be out before morning rush hour.

No thats valid for 18z tomorrow...My mistake it wasnt hour 10 that was frame 10

Toot wrote:Be carefeul out there Bruce and DW

trust me toot, i got my eyes on friday...if models hold or even trend stronger, i am taking off work and we are heading out , me n the boys going chasing... i am chomping at the bit

SPC for the first system in case people havent seen it

THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN MOST AREAS...VERY STRONG
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST...WITH VERY
STRONG/QUASI-UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
CLOUD-BEARING LAYER. WHILE LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND A COUPLE
OF ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEARS POSSIBLE...MAIN SEVERE THREAT THIS
PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS -- WITH FAST-MOVING LINES/LINE
SEGMENTS. THE GREATEST THREAT SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ALONG AND WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS -- INCLUDING THE MID AND UPPER OH
AND TN VALLEYS. SOME THREAT MAY CROSS THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT AS
THE WEAKENING FRONT ADVANCES...WITH THREAT POSSIBLY REACHING THE
MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

Very classic Spring weather system we are dealing with here, Blizzard warnings to the north and possible severe in the south. I think because of the dynamics of this system we could really see some good severe weather tommrow. I do not think there will be a major tornado threat just because of the lack of spin in the atmosphere. I am learning like all the rest of you so please correct me if I am wrong.

Adam2014 wrote:Very classic Spring weather system we are dealing with here, Blizzard warnings to the north and possible severe in the south. I think because of the dynamics of this system we could really see some good severe weather tommrow. I do not think there will be a major tornado threat just because of the lack of spin in the atmosphere. I am learning like all the rest of you so please correct me if I am wrong.

nice post adam... i still like friday, if that other low can develop, which models have a hard time picking up on... were looking at a pretty decent tornado do i dare say outbreak... watch for trends.

tennessee storm09 wrote:

Adam2014 wrote:Very classic Spring weather system we are dealing with here, Blizzard warnings to the north and possible severe in the south. I think because of the dynamics of this system we could really see some good severe weather tommrow. I do not think there will be a major tornado threat just because of the lack of spin in the atmosphere. I am learning like all the rest of you so please correct me if I am wrong.

nice post adam... i still like friday, if that other low can develop, which models have a hard time picking up on... were looking at a pretty decent tornado do i dare say outbreak... watch for trends.

I really have been looking friday for a more severe weather outbreak, that is really where we have some potential with a nice potent cold front to get some storms stirred up.

Although the first system dont look like a tornado outbreak I still think it looks like a potentially strong straight line wind event across much of the state...OHX mentioned it in their latest AFD also. I would also watch the warm front tonight...could be some storms fire that are associated with it somewhere in the state.

Interesting next few days in the wx department.

Toot wrote:Although the first system dont look like a tornado outbreak I still think it looks like a potentially strong straight line wind event across much of the state...OHX mentioned it in their latest AFD also. I would also watch the warm front tonight...could be some storms fire along it somewhere in the state.

Interesting next few days in the wx department.

i agree toot, if we can get that second low pressure to develop to the south of primary surface low, our backing of winds come from southeast, south. something to watch

if it wasnt for this severe threat tonight into tomorrow, nws office would be putting out special weather statements by tomorrow afternoon on the fridays event... guess they will take the one system at a time approach, i cant blame them.

tennessee storm09 wrote:if it wasnt for this severe threat tonight into tomorrow, nws office would be putting out special weather statements by tomorrow afternoon on the fridays event... guess they will take the one system at a time approach, i cant blame them.

Care to quantify that statement? I've seen nothing corraberating this...just today, OHX issued an AFD specifically highlighting Friday's risk as being more "impressive".

yes sir, be glad to... the system friday holds way more potential than this first one... models back this up also... just saying, there is a severe threat with the system tomorrow... so they dont want to overlook this threat by any means... it would just only confusse the average person... guarauntee you, there will be a statement by thursday mornings package, its not really a big of a deal anyway... just made a post about a statement eric...

I just didn't want it being suggested that any WFO was "overlooking" Friday's event because of tonights. I think MEG, OHX, and MRX are fully capable of multi-tasking.

And just like that...

903 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY AS WELL. MAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DAMAGING WIND BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

REPORTS FROM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED.

Eric wrote:I just didn't want it being suggested that any WFO was "overlooking" Friday's event because of tonights. I think MEG, OHX, and MRX are fully capable of multi-tasking.

And just like that...

903 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY AS WELL. MAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DAMAGING WIND BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

REPORTS FROM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED.

o i gree with you eric, no doubt, they are quite capable... i think we are blessed to have two great nws office in our respective areas