March 2nd 2012 in like a lion!! HIGH RISK

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-22, 7:58 pm

Toot wrote:Synoptically..the system towards the first of March looks

i got my eye out on that system toot... thats the one i have been talking about..

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-24, 1:35 pm

nws out of little rock, klzk... is already hinting at a big severe outbreak for the next weeks system... nice read on their afd. meg is saying thunderstomrs just for now.

by **Toot** 2012-02-24, 4:59 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:nws out of little rock, klzk... is already hinting at a big severe outbreak for the next weeks system... nice read on their afd. meg is saying thunderstomrs just for now.

To say that we have good agreement on that storm system would be an understatement!!

March 2nd 2012 in like a lion!! HIGH RISK F90

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-25, 12:24 am

i guess i should made that post in the spring 2012 severe here, but its all about severe, anyways it looks like the system just after the first of the month really hold alot of potential also... maybe even more of a threat to be honest with you... specifics on it when it gets closer.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-25, 6:10 am

and as i expected, spc pulls the trigger... they higlight a risk area from the ozarks to the midosuth... but the system after that one is just down right ugly and scary... especially on the 0z euro... that would be for late next week... time to watch that one for trends.

by **Dyersburg Weather** 2012-02-25, 11:19 am

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CST SAT FEB 25 2012

VALID 281200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
WRN CONUS TROUGHING DESCRIBED IN DAY-3 OUTLOOK WILL LEAD TO
STG/DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE TRACKING FROM CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO UPPER MS
VALLEY DAY-4/28TH-29TH. MOST CONFIDENT SVR POTENTIAL...INCLUDING
THREAT FOR TORNADOES...IS OVERNIGHT OVER PORTIONS
OZARKS/MID-SOUTH/ARKLATEX REGIONS. STG MID-UPPER WINDS -- I.E.
50-70 KT AT 500 MB -- AND HODOGRAPH-ENLARGING LLJ SHOULD OVERSPREAD
SFC DEW POINTS INCREASING TO 60S F. FARTHER N...PRIND MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE MEAGER INTO AREA NEAR SFC LOW...ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF
DEEP-LAYER LIFT AND WIND FIELDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT
LEAST MRGL SVR THREAT WITH ANY SUSTAINED/SFC-BASED CONVECTION THAT
CAN FORM. POTENTIAL OVER CORN BELT APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL ATTM TO
EXTEND CATEGORICAL AREA THERE.

MIDWEST SYSTEM SHOULD DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT AND OUTPACE GULF MOISTURE
RETURN DAY-5/29TH-1ST...THOUGH SVR POTENTIAL IN SRN
APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT REGION AND CAROLINAS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
NEXT SUBSTANTIAL MID-UPPER TROUGH SHOULD CROSS CENTRAL/NRN ROCKIES
DAY-6/1ST-2ND...WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
SOME SVR IS POSSIBLE DAYS 6-7/1ST-3RD FROM SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD
LOWER OH VALLEY AS SFC CYCLONE EJECTS FROM HIGH PLAINS...HOWEVER
SPREAD IN VARIOUS MREF/OPERATIONAL PROGS IS TOO LARGE TO ASSIGN
CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM.

by **Toot** 2012-02-25, 11:50 am

St Louis WRF at hr 84

March 2nd 2012 in like a lion!! HIGH RISK Mslp_84

by **Toot** 2012-02-25, 1:05 pm

12zGFS

March 2nd 2012 in like a lion!! HIGH RISK GFS_3_2012022512_F90_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-25, 1:05 pm

word is reed trimmer and his famous dominator will be in arkansas for the coming up event tuesday.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-25, 1:07 pm

Toot wrote:12zGFS

yep the 12z is stronger with the system from last nites oz... energy dives much further south also popcorn

by **Toot** 2012-02-25, 1:07 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:word is reed trimmer and his famous dominator will be in arkansas for the coming up event tuesday.

From his FB

D2 heading home! In time for upcoming AR chase!

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-25, 1:08 pm

yep there she is wash

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-25, 1:09 pm

I'd cruise it.

rock on

by **Dyersburg Weather** 2012-02-25, 2:58 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:word is reed trimmer and his famous dominator will be in arkansas for the coming up event tuesday.

He was in Dyersburg for a couple of days last year. It was when we were in a high risk but ended up busting. I talked to him for a few minutes and checked out the dominator. Seemed like a cool dude and answered all of my questions that I had for the storm that was coming through. I would be dangerous in that ride of his. rock on

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-25, 3:07 pm

the 12z euro looked wicked for the midsouth for tuesday late into that nite... wind fields look pretty impressive particular in the lower level, which should keep most storms surface based...low level jet looks to be screaming overnight which is very classic trait... models showing lower 60s north as southern illinois... models hold serve, me and my boys may head into far eastern arkansas and work our way back east.... i can see the potential there for some discrete actvity out ahead of a nice line...lets see how tonights 0z handles this... models look like they are struggling some with the second system, cause i think its so close to the first one. nearly back to back.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-25, 3:10 pm

Dyersburg Weather wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:word is reed trimmer and his famous dominator will be in arkansas for the coming up event tuesday.

He was in Dyersburg for a couple of days last year. It was when we were in a high risk but ended up busting. I talked to him for a few minutes and checked out the dominator. Seemed like a cool dude and answered all of my questions that I had for the storm that was coming through. I would be dangerous in that ride of his.

cool dyersburg, i have never met him. that is one bad ride there man.

by **Toot** 2012-02-25, 6:54 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:the 12z euro looked wicked for the midsouth for tuesday late into that nite... wind fields look pretty impressive particular in the lower level, which should keep most storms surface based...low level jet looks to be screaming overnight which is very classic trait... models showing lower 60s north as southern illinois... models hold serve, me and my boys may head into far eastern arkansas and work our way back east.... i can see the potential there for some discrete actvity out ahead of a nice line...lets see how tonights 0z handles this... models look like they are struggling some with the second system, cause i think its so close to the first one. nearly back to back.

Good Post Bruce..I knew you could do it and agree with you now if we cant get eric to post his thoughts rock on

by **Toot** 2012-02-25, 7:27 pm

by **Reb** 2012-02-25, 8:05 pm

yummy and it will move east Very Happy

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-25, 8:41 pm

Reb wrote:yummy and it will move east

And fall apart as it comes off the plateau!

rabbit

by **Toot** 2012-02-25, 8:47 pm

Stovepipe wrote:
And fall apart as it comes off the plateau!

No this is looking like a severe threat from the midsouth to the mid atlantic

by **Toot** 2012-02-25, 9:16 pm

LC

One Storm Leads To Another; Severe Weather Threat Across Mississippi River Watershed Later Week
Plymouth State University Weather Server (2)
NOAA/NCEP

This is an energetic 500MB longwave pattern more in tune with spring than winter. If you look at the MTSAT and GOES WEST images, you cannot help but notice the series of strong disturbances embedded within the polar westerlies that stretch from the Pacific Northwest back into Central Asia. Impulses one and two affect the U.S. during the next four days. A third and possibly strongest system is predicted by the ECMWF and GFS schemes to partially phase with on Thursday and Friday. But unlike the earlier features which will bring heavy snow and ice to parts of the Rocky Mountains and Upper Midwest, the storm and attendant frontal structures in late week could be prolific generators of heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms.

Predictions of instability, 700MB UVV and temperature/wind profiles point toward formation of intense convection over KS....OK....TX on Thursday. As the low pressure center congeals and acquires better surface convergence character over MO and IL during Friday afternoon,I expect a prominent severe weather outbreak over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. The thunderstorms may still fall into the heavy-to-severe category upon reaching the Eastern Seaboard later Friday night.

Continue reading on Examiner.com WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, February 25, 2012 at 7:40 P.M. CT - Houston Weather | Examiner.com http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-houston/weatheramerica-newsletter-saturday-february-25-2012-at-7-40-p-m-ct#ixzz1nRyleqIo

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-25, 9:32 pm

good write up by larry... he is thinking and seeing nothing but severe weather chances as far as he can see... yikes

by **Eric** 2012-02-25, 10:48 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:the 12z euro looked wicked for the midsouth for tuesday late into that nite... wind fields look pretty impressive particular in the lower level, which should keep most storms surface based...low level jet looks to be screaming overnight which is very classic trait... models showing lower 60s north as southern illinois... models hold serve, me and my boys may head into far eastern arkansas and work our way back east.... i can see the potential there for some discrete actvity out ahead of a nice line...lets see how tonights 0z handles this... models look like they are struggling some with the second system, cause i think its so close to the first one. nearly back to back.

Last I checked, wind fields have almost zero to do with keeping storms "surface-based". It's atmospheric moisture content. The closer the dew point is to the surface air temp determines where the LCL (lifted condensation level... i.e. CLOUD BASE) begins. Wind fields might help determine storm mode, but not whether they're rooted in the BL or elevated.

I hope to have my thoughts concerning this potential setup posted Monday...Daddy's taking the weekend off.