Toots 2012-13 winter outlook

Im releasing this a few days early here on this forum as I have had some extra time this weekend. It will not be released anywhere else for a few days. If you want to share it somewhere else..be my guest.

2012-13 Winter Outlook

Winter weather patterns over the eastern united states depend on several atmospheric oscillations and some of these oscillations depend on sea surface Temperatures. Certain weather patterns usually teleconnect to these oscillations. I have based certain aspects of this outlook off of several different Oscillations which I will discuss here.



*Longterm Oscillations/SST's*

-The PDO decadal cycle-

The PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) is described as warm or cool surface waters in the Pacific Ocean 20 degrees and north. During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool. Eastern parts of the Pacific become warm during a cool or negative phase.. and vice versa. I put most of the weight of this outlook on the current decadal cycle of the PDO. The snowy winters of 09/10 10/11 were products of this relatively new Cold decadal cycle of the PDO just like all the snowy winters of the 50's 60's and 70's were part of the last negative decadal cycle of the PDO.

This value argues strongly in favor of a colder and snowier than normal winter in the southern tier of the nation.

Posistive and Negative phases of the PDO




-ENSO-

ENSO is another Oscillation that is used to get an idea of a future weather pattern. When you here someone mention La Nina or El Nino they are talking about ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation). I expect a borderline Neutral to weak El nino ENSO episode this winter. This particular value will also argue for a colder and snowier southern tier of the nation. There are other longer range Oscillations that are less important to me..but we wont talk about those here.

El Nino and La Nina




*Local Shorterm Oscillations*


-EPO-

The East Pacific Oscillation or EPO is the western most Oscillation in a set of what I like to call local Oscillations or Indice's. The EPO's values depend on values of high and low pressure's and/or heights in the Northern Pacific. A positive EPO is a warm signal in the eastern united states during winter.. and a Negative EPO is a cold signal here during winter.

Positive phase of the EPO


Some of these "local" Oscillations are much harder to predict than say ENSO or the PDO.

Although..sometimes there are signals that correlate these local Oscillations to a particular value. Thats how they become useful in long range forecasting and recent data trends are suggestive of a more negative EPO this winter.



-PNA-

The PNA (Pacific North American pattern) is a weather pattern with two distinct cycles denoted by positive and negative.. which relates to the atmospheric pattern over the North Pacific Ocean and parts of western North America. It is often influnenced directly by the EPO and is usually a directly opposite value of the EPO. Again there are signs of this favoring a colder winter.

Positive Phase of the PNA




-NAO/AO-

Perhaps the most important (During winter) of all the indices that we have discussed is the North Atlantic Oscillation and its twin Brother.. the Arctic Oscillation. The reason this one is the most important.. is because its value directly effects our weather pattern here in the eastern US. This is because the NAO is the most local of all of the Oscillations that affect our weather during boreal winter.

A negative value almost always equals a colder pattern due to the high latitude blocking that phase produces. Predicting NAO/AO values outside of two weeks has proven to be extremely difficult.. but again there are correlations that for the most part can usually give one a good idea of the mean winter value. Several different signal's/correlations argue that the NAO/AO will be mostly negative this winter. However.. if this value winds up being mostly positive this winter.. it will trump this and any other cold outlook in the eastern united states.


Positive and Negative phases of the NAO




-Winter Analogs-

Another method used to forecast in the long range is past weather data of a certain year and season. Most of the analogs are based on the decadal cycle of the PDO...some are based on ENSO and some are based on weather patterns this summer and fall. This coming winter the majority of the analogs are of the colder variety!

Here is a list of the analogs used in this outlook
1952/53
2009/10
1976/77
2006/07
1987/88

Here is an average of composite temp anomalies for the said winters.




-Recent weather Pattern Over North America-

If one has been paying attention to the current weather pattern.. that person could easily see a cold season pattern setting up with the split in the jetstream. Polar/Subtropical. This pattern also favors a colder southern tier of the nation. I could easily see how several powerful Nor'easter type systems are produced from what I expect to be some major phasing of the polar and subtropical jetstream's this year. Having said all the above..and when I mix all these ingredients together I come up with the images below and my final winter outlook.


Temps


Snow


Highlights


Thanks for reading

outstandiing job toot...

Toot, good job man. I think november will be more telling for the winter where the trough sets up. Thats how i see it currently.

Have you ever predicted a warm winter. (no hate) But, every time I see your winter forecast its always having below normal temps and above normal snowfall with perfect snow tracks. I just don't think you are looking at all the information maybe i'm wrong maybe everything every year points to perfect snow weather but surely if that's the case you know that we don't have perfect winters every year. Again no hate just dont really understand all about winter forecasting this early.

Im relatively new to this Skills..This is only my 4th one! But since you ask.

I went cold the winter of 09/10 (Verified) Cold in 10/11(Verified) Cold in 11/12 (Busted) and now im going cold again in 12/13. This has nothing to do with me liking cold weather. The state of the PDO along with ENSO argues for cold (as stated above)and so do the analogs that I came up with (as stated above)

Im not predicting a perfect winter by any means.. just colder than normal..and that alone will argue for more snow. If I told you the data argued for warm...I would be telling a lie.

Good job Toot. Now I have someone to blame if it does not snow.

Thanks yall..and I'll gladly be your glutton for punishment if that forecast busts!

Toot how does the well above average Atlantic SST's off the northeast coast factor into your prediction if at all? I noticed on your ENSO graphic they show a cool Northwest Atlantic SST with Nino and opposite with Nina. I think the weird acting Nino (rare to see a growing Nino just die like this one did) may play an unseen role in this winter.

snowdog wrote:Toot how does the well above average Atlantic SST's off the northeast coast factor into your prediction if at all? I noticed on your ENSO graphic they show a cool Northwest Atlantic SST with Nino and opposite with Nina. I think the weird acting Nino (rare to see a growing Nino just die like this one did) may play an unseen role in this winter.

Warmer than normal Gulf Stream SSTs have an important influence on initiating and strengthening disturbances in and around the east coast. So warmer than normal SST's off the east coast could act to enhance any potential Nor'easter or LPS. In theory if this occurs a few times it could create a cold feedback loop in the eastern US.

Good work Tooter.

Stovepipe wrote:Good work Tooter.

I concur. Hope it works out for us Toot. Looks like it could be a good winter for the whole state.

larry cosgroves latest newsletter tonite, he is saying a west based weak ellnino, no doubt he says... saying by the end .of the month, things getting going in earnedst with this... gfs is already showing signs of split flow setting up in long range

Well I for one hope you right like you was back in 09 that was a awesome year for snow. I personally think whatever happens this year we all will enjoy compared to the torture we went through last year. Heres to snow

Outstanding analysis Toot! I hope this verifies! I would love to see an E TN winter with above normal snowfall!

Thanks yall..I hope we all get a metric ass ton of snow this winter!

looks good toot! i’m loving the weather the past few days, finely feels like fall/winter. i love when it’s cold out side! and maybe i can get some good snowboarding in this winter.

Toot,
Can you look at 77/78 and tell me how it compares to what we are looking at this year ? That was the my favorite winter growing up. SNOW SNOW and more SNOW,

Sure DW..I know it was cold and snowy but I will look at the details after I get through making the first winter storm threat thread around Thanksgiving timeframe. Im almost done with it...give me a few.

DW..I expect 77/78 would also be another great analog for this winter It was a backend brutally cold winter as the AO/NAO tanked in Jan! And really snowy too as Nashvegas recieving almost 26" of snow with a 12"+ major storm in Jan with snow in Feb and March also!

Toot wrote:DW..I expect 77/78 would also be another great analog for this winter It was a backend brutally cold winter as the AO/NAO tanked in Jan! And really snowy too as Nashvegas recieving almost 26" of snow with a 12"+ major storm in Jan with snow in Feb and March also!

I know it was epic here. We called Wednesdays " Wicked Wednesday". Starting the first week of Jan. thru the first half of Feb. it snowed EVERY Wednesday. We had snow on the ground to some degree for 48 days. We missed 18 days of school.

Dyersburg Weather wrote:

Toot wrote:DW..I expect 77/78 would also be another great analog for this winter It was a backend brutally cold winter as the AO/NAO tanked in Jan! And really snowy too as Nashvegas recieving almost 26" of snow with a 12"+ major storm in Jan with snow in Feb and March also!

I know it was epic here. We called Wednesdays " Wicked Wednesday". Starting the first week of Jan. thru the first half of Feb. it snowed EVERY Wednesday. We had snow on the ground to some degree for 48 days. We missed 18 days of school.

dw, you sure that wasnt the winterof 76 77... i remember dave brown calling it wicked wednesday also... both of those winters were great... i missed almost all of january of gramar school

Definately an Epic winter DW...BTW an updated version of my winter forecast can be found here

http://www.talkweather.com/forums/index.php?/topic/58660-my-201213-winter-outlook/

I just havent transferred it here yet because ive been too busy..its not much different..just different text about the similarities to 2009/10

those 2 winters featured a positive pdo... which is forecasted to stay slightly negative at best this winter.