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Make your Winter Forecast for 2012/13

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Make your Winter Forecast for 2012/13

Post by windstorm on 2012-09-28, 4:02 pm

Well here goes nothing and i mean nothing. I have seen some weather links say a cold and snowy winter. More so in the East. Am thinking not as cold in the SE. I think NAO, AO, will stay more on the plus side this winter but from time to time go negative and be short lived. I live in the SE corner of Tn so we may be in the battle zone cold vs warm which i think the warm will win over most of the time. We could have some cold rains this winter. I do think maybe one snow where i live this winter but nothing with 4 or more inches. I think the lowest temp will be between 13 -16 degrees and i think there will be no highs staying at 32 or below for a daily high. I think if we get lows in the GOM i think they will take a more southerly track which will make it hard for any big times snow events. I think places like Smokie Mts and NC Mountains will get the share of some good snows. In part from clipper systems. Am thinking rainfall maybe in the normal ranges this winter. I know i left out many other factors. I have been wrong many, many times and this may well be another year for being wrong. I also think another cause for not as much snow is when the Lows start moving our way we will be more on the warm side the low. This is just my 2 cents worth. But would like to hear from the rest of you on what your thinking about this winter. Yes there are many loop hole in this forecast and i give it a 10% chance of being right. P.S. Ice storm for my area well, it's always a player in any winter season and we a due for a big Ice storm. Not say it's going to happen but the cards are on the table. Thanks Guys and Gals. cliffdive
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Re: Make your Winter Forecast for 2012/13

Post by Jed33 on 2012-09-28, 4:29 pm

windstorm wrote:Well here goes nothing and i mean nothing. I have seen some weather links say a cold and snowy winter. More so in the East. Am thinking not as cold in the SE. I think NAO, AO, will stay more on the plus side this winter but from time to time go negative and be short lived. I live in the SE corner of Tn so we may be in the battle zone cold vs warm which i think the warm will win over most of the time. We could have some cold rains this winter. I do think maybe one snow where i live this winter but nothing with 4 or more inches. I think the lowest temp will be between 13 -16 degrees and i think there will be no highs staying at 32 or below for a daily high. I think if we get lows in the GOM i think they will take a more southerly track which will make it hard for any big times snow events. I think places like Smokie Mts and NC Mountains will get the share of some good snows. In part from clipper systems. Am thinking rainfall maybe in the normal ranges this winter. I know i left out many other factors. I have been wrong many, many times and this may well be another year for being wrong. I also think another cause for not as much snow is when the Lows start moving our way we will be more on the warm side the low. This is just my 2 cents worth. But would like to hear from the rest of you on what your thinking about this winter. Yes there are many loop hole in this forecast and i give it a 10% chance of being right. P.S. Ice storm for my area well, it's always a player in any winter season and we a due for a big Ice storm. Not say it's going to happen but the cards are on the table. Thanks Guys and Gals. cliffdive

Sounds pretty reasonable to me. Although, I am a little further north than you, I live in Morristown, i would agree. However, I do think the at least the N and Central valley could very well have a day or two, maybe more this winter where it stays below freezing all day. It is a little harder for some reason, I've noticed down around the Chattanooga area to keep daytime highs below freezing in the winter time than the rest of the state. However, I do think that even that area will have at least a couple days where it's close, maybe below 32. From what I can tell, I expect a slow start to winter, probably not really getting going good till after Christmas, and quite a few mild shots mixed in with the colder ones. I don't believe for one minute that this will be as warm a winter as last year, but at the same time, I'd be shocked to see it equal 09-10 to be honest. I think there will be snow statewide, but probably at different times, as I don't see as great a potential to have a big statewide snow from W to E this winter. Bottom line, my intial thoughts are probably not going to verify either, but I think a couple of pretty decent cold shots will drop us into at least the upper single digits for one night and highs at least below 32 for 2 days. My intial numbers for Morristown: What a gamble here wacko

Lowest Temp. 9
Lowest Max 28
Most days below 32-2days
Snowfall 4in.

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Re: Make your Winter Forecast for 2012/13

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-09-28, 6:10 pm

i feel really good about seeing a really nice winter pretty much statewide... i see winter getting off to a slow start how ever...but right near the newyears the nao will tank and pretty much stay negative through most of february... i see potential for a strong gulf low or two... coldest period will be mid to late january were i think there will be at least a solid week of below freezing high temps... if we can get some solid snow cover i think we can approach near zero in the colder parts of the state late january for lows.... i am going with 3 solid snows for the western part of the state... those will range from 4 to 8 inches... i think this winter will be better than 09 10, cause the nino wont be to strong, so storm depression will be less unlikely this winter... my solid analong i am going with is still 76 77... i am sticking to my guns folks. rock on

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Re: Make your Winter Forecast for 2012/13

Post by Toot on 2012-09-28, 6:59 pm

One thing that I am seeing that makes me think this winter will be on the snowy side are several early fall gulf type lows. The subtropical jet is cranking up quite early if you hadnt noticed. Last year we had only one memorable gulf type low in October which produced a snowstorm in the NE. This year there is more southern stream activity.

It seems the better winters that I remember have numerous gulf type lows during fall. If this pattern keeps reloading its gonna be fun one beer

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Re: Make your Winter Forecast for 2012/13

Post by Jed33 on 2012-09-28, 8:24 pm

Toot wrote:One thing that I am seeing that makes me think this winter will be on the snowy side are several early fall gulf type lows. The subtropical jet is cranking up quite early if you hadnt noticed. Last year we had only one memorable gulf type low in October which produced a snowstorm in the NE. This year there is more southern stream activity.

It seems the better winters that I remember have numerous gulf type lows during fall. If this pattern keeps reloading its gonna be fun one beer

I hope it can continue all winter. I went kinda conservative on my total snowfall bc I saw that great big gulf of alaska low the other day, and it has me concerned that even though the terrible pattern of last year might not totally reappear this year, we may have it on a smaller scale this year. Maybe it won't screw it up again this year. I could see potentially where we could get dumped on big time, but i'm hesitant to go full out this early on.

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Re: Make your Winter Forecast for 2012/13

Post by windstorm on 2012-11-01, 9:31 am

Update on winter forecast. Still sticking to my forecast this winter season. Still think it will be a mild winter over all. Maybe a little better than last year but i would not count on it. NAO AO will flip back and forth but for now don't see a big flip at anytime to bring extreme cold to Tenn ,,... pass out
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Re: Make your Winter Forecast for 2012/13

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-11-01, 10:09 am

Impossible to have any high degree of confidence in a winter forecast for the south east, but based on the reading I've done so far I'm going all in on AT LEAST an average winter for the state. Average snowfall would be quite welcome for my area as the past decade has been well below. We may get ripped off again, but quite a few parameters are lining up that would suggest we have a pretty good shot this season.

Give me 2 to 4 snows with 2 to 4 inches each and I won't complain. Anything more and I'll be ecstatic.

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Re: Make your Winter Forecast for 2012/13

Post by windstorm on 2012-11-01, 11:54 am

I hope i am way off. Can't stand a winter without cold and snow. popcorn
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Re: Make your Winter Forecast for 2012/13

Post by John1122 on 2012-11-01, 4:06 pm

Historically -NAO Autumn=+NAO Winter and vice versa. But the recent pattern has been exactly opposite of that. 5 consecutive -NAO Octobers have went on to be -NAO winters. Last year's +NAO October would usually produce a -NAO but it was extremely +. Rapid snow growth in Siberia favors a cold winter. If the recent -NAO October trend continues we will have a nice winter.

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Re: Make your Winter Forecast for 2012/13

Post by windstorm on 2012-11-01, 9:05 pm

Historically -NAO Autumn=+NAO Winter and vice versa. I have notice that many times and you are right. I think that might be the reason WSI is looking for a mild to above weather. I know they put a lot of input into there forecast. But all i can see at best would be a normal winter. But what do i know.. I remember 09/10 i think it was where it was a cool to somewhat cold fall so i was thinking it would be a mild to warm winter. But not the case. Just when you think you have it nail down it does something else. I guess it just a wait and see. I hate to go through another winter like last year. Make a person want to pull and Elvis and shoot the TV. slap
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Re: Make your Winter Forecast for 2012/13

Post by Toot on 2012-11-01, 9:49 pm

Ive tried to stay out of this thread..but I cant take it anymore..lol Very Happy

Ive posted this data a couple of times but yall seem to missing it! No? Anyways...if you know anything about the winter NAO you know that it generally follows the winter AO. And if you know anything about the winter Arctic Oscillation you know that the winter AO is a direct result of how strong or weak the winter Polar Vortex is!

The winter PV (Polar Vortex) is generally driven by snow expansion during the month of October! Large gains in northern hemisphere snow expansion during October equals a weak PV/-AO winter! Small gains in snow expansion equals a strong PV +AO winter!

This means there is a strong Winter AO to October AO Correlation

This October has had an AO value that averages moderately to deeply negative! I would say this October will average out around negative 2.00 in terms of AO value! Winter seasons since 1950 with an October AO value of at least -1.00 look like the image below when averaged out tempwise. This correlation STRONGLY argues for a colder than normal winter in the eastern US!

Temp departure from normal for winter seasons
with an October AO value of at least -1.00



This is not my opinion..its the cold hard facts..lol


Last edited by Toot on 2012-11-01, 10:53 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Make your Winter Forecast for 2012/13

Post by Jed33 on 2012-11-01, 10:10 pm

Wow Toot, that looks cold! rock on

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Re: Make your Winter Forecast for 2012/13

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-11-04, 8:12 pm

I like get everyone's perspective on the upcoming winter, scientific or not. Come on guys, tell us what you think, for whatever reason, what will winter be like in TN?!
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Re: Make your Winter Forecast for 2012/13

Post by Jed33 on 2012-12-04, 3:07 pm

Back in Sept. I made a gamble on winter forecasting for this year, in this thread, 2nd post from top. This was based on a hybrid of last year. I thought, well, in a worst case scenario, it might resemble last year to a degree, but would probably not be quite as bad. Kinda like MRX, lol wacko I was hedging my bets against a cold Dec. and only a relatively cool winter with mild shots between. Unfortunately, looks like I was pretty much accurate so far. This had nothing to do really with skill, as I just was playing it very conservative. December will probably feature a turn around, but probably not till after Christmas at the very least. I wish I could say I had more hope in a quick change to winter, but unfortunately, I don't. Part of the post is below:

Jed33 wrote:However, I do think the at least the N and Central valley could very well have a day or two, maybe more this winter where it stays below freezing all day. It is a little harder for some reason, I've noticed down around the Chattanooga area to keep daytime highs below freezing in the winter time than the rest of the state. However, I do think that even that area will have at least a couple days where it's close, maybe below 32. From what I can tell, I expect a slow start to winter, probably not really getting going good till after Christmas, and quite a few mild shots mixed in with the colder ones. I don't believe for one minute that this will be as warm a winter as last year, but at the same time, I'd be shocked to see it equal 09-10 to be honest. I think there will be snow statewide, but probably at different times, as I don't see as great a potential to have a big statewide snow from W to E this winter. Bottom line, my intial thoughts are probably not going to verify either, but I think a couple of pretty decent cold shots will drop us into at least the upper single digits for one night and highs at least below 32 for 2 days. My intial numbers for Morristown: What a gamble here wacko

Lowest Temp. 9
Lowest Max 28
Most days below 32-2days
Snowfall 4in.

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Re: Make your Winter Forecast for 2012/13

Post by windstorm on 2013-03-07, 5:13 pm

I know we have maybe 2 weeks of winter left but am writing to tell how my forecast went for me this winter. No highs of 32 or below. Check! Nothing lower than 13 - 16, lowest i had this winter was 17. Check. Or miss!! One snow. Check! I said normal rainfall. Missed! I said we would be in the battle zone with warm and cold. Check! I guess i got a C+ on this winter. Lows in the GOM was not much of factor this winter. Tell me what u think... wash
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Re: Make your Winter Forecast for 2012/13

Post by Jed33 on 2013-03-07, 6:13 pm

Well, I am amazed that I did as well as I did. I missed my forecast completely though. My lo min. Was forecast at 9. 14 was as low as I made it. My number of max days 32 or below was forecast at 2. I had 6 total. Coldest was 27. I had forecasted 28. Total snowfall was 10.5 in. I had forecasted 4. Basically, I was too conservative on everything except the low temps. Where I was too bullish on how low we would get. My forecast turns out to be an F. However, I give my end result an A++ due to so much snow, 6 daily highs below freezing, and getting to experience thundersnow!

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Re: Make your Winter Forecast for 2012/13

Post by Toot on 2013-03-07, 8:12 pm

I have never seen hemispheric indices defy the weather pattern as much as they did this winter but the NAO delivered here in east TN each time it went considerably negative! This winter should serve as a lesson in what I have known to be true for years. If you dont have a decent negative NAO you might as well forget it in the snow department. This winter has been a memorable one here at my house mainly because of the thundersnow but I bid it adieu! Im ready for darker skin and the warm phase of this year! I will now leave you with a warmer tune by the great Doc watson!


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Re: Make your Winter Forecast for 2012/13

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-03-07, 10:29 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:i feel really good about seeing a really nice winter pretty much statewide... i see winter getting off to a slow start how ever...but right near the newyears the nao will tank and pretty much stay negative through most of february... i see potential for a strong gulf low or two... coldest period will be mid to late january were i think there will be at least a solid week of below freezing high temps... if we can get some solid snow cover i think we can approach near zero in the colder parts of the state late january for lows.... i am going with 3 solid snows for the western part of the state... those will range from 4 to 8 inches... i think this winter will be better than 09 10, cause the nino wont be to strong, so storm depression will be less unlikely this winter... my solid analong i am going with is still 76 77... i am sticking to my guns folks. rock on
lmao... i think i missed it just a tad...

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