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Wxeasterns 2012/13 final winter forecast update

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Wxeasterns 2012/13 final winter forecast update

Post by Toot on 2012-11-16, 4:24 pm

A few things have changed recently such as the Arctic Oscillation and a few fall analogs which does have a significant impact on the first graphics I issued..so here is an update! Now im gonna go get loaded..because this is the third time I have wrote copy/pasted parts of this update as the forum rejected my first three attempts and I had to start from scratch every time mad




Final 2012/13 winter outlook

Winter weather patterns over the eastern united states depend on several Atmospheric oscillations and Oceanic oscillations. Oceanic oscillation values depend on sea surface temperatures. Atmospheric Oscillation values depend on pressure/height patterns at various levels of the atmosphere and its clear to me that the Arctic Oscillation will dominate this winter!!!

Certain weather patterns usually teleconnect to these oscillations and I have based most aspects of this outlook off of several different oscillations which I will discuss here.




*Longterm Oscillations/SST's*



-The PDO decadal cycle-

The PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) is described as warm or cool surface waters in the Pacific Ocean 20 degrees and north. During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool. Eastern parts of the Pacific become warm during a cool or negative phase.. and vice versa. I put most of the weight of this outlook on the current decadal cycle of the PDO. The snowy winters of 09/10 10/11 were products of this relatively new and cold decadal cycle of the PDO.. just like all the snowy winters of the 50's 60's and 70's were part of the last negative/cold decadal cycle of the PDO. It is my belief that the decadal cycle of the PDO is a bigger driver of climate than ENSO is!

This value argues strongly in favor of a colder and snowier than normal winter in the southern tier of the nation.

Posistive and Negative phases of the PDO




-ENSO-

ENSO is another Oscillation that is used to get an idea of a future weather pattern. When you here someone mention La Nina or El Nino they are talking about ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation). Im expecting a borderline Neutral to weak El nino ENSO episode this winter. This particular value will also argue for a colder and snowier than normal southern tier of the nation. There are other longer range oscillations that IMO are less important to weather patterns over North America..but we wont talk about those here.

El Nino and La Nina





*Local Shorterm Oscillations*

Some of these "local" Oscillations are much harder to predict than say ENSO.. or the PDO because they change much more quickly.

Although..sometimes there are signals that correlate these local Oscillations to a particular value. Thats how they become useful in long range forecasting. I label them with the word "Local" because I consider them local in respect to the longwave weather pattern over North America.



-EPO-

The East Pacific Oscillation or EPO is the western most Oscillation in the set of local Oscillations.The EPO's value depends on values of high and low pressure and/or heights in the Northern Pacific. A positive EPO is a warm signal in the eastern united states during winter.. and a Negative EPO is a cold signal during winter. Recent SST data and wx pattern trends over the northern Pacific are suggestive of a more negative EPO this winter!

Positive phase of the EPO





-PNA-

The PNA (Pacific North American pattern) is a weather pattern with two distinct phases denoted by positive and negative which relates to the atmospheric pattern over the Northern Pacific Ocean and sections of western North America. The PNA is often influnenced directly by the EPO and a majority of the time is a direct opposite value of the EPO. The same atmospheric and oceanic data signals that say the EPO will be mostly negative this winter.. are the same signals that say the PNA will be mostly positive this winter. A positive phase of the PNA is a cold signal here in the eastern US.

Positive Phase of the PNA






-NAO/AO-

Perhaps the most important (During winter) of all these indices that we have discussed.. is the North Atlantic Oscillation and its twin Brother/sister.. the Arctic Oscillation. The reason the NAO is the most important is because its value directly effects our weather pattern here in the eastern US during winter. This is because the NAO is the most local of all the local oscillations that affect our weather during boreal winter.

A negative value almost always equals a colder pattern during the winter season. This is due to the high latitude blocking that the negative phase produces. Predicting NAO/AO values outside of two weeks has proven to be extremely difficult.. but again there are correlations that for the most part can usually give one a good idea of the mean winter value. Several different signal's/correlations argue that the NAO/AO will be mostly negative this winter. SST data in the North Atlantic/Summer to winter NAO correlation data/and IMO.. the most important correlation is the October AO to winter AO correlation. All these signals argue that NAO/AO should be mostly on the negative side this winter. However.. if this value for some unexpected reason ends up being mostly positive this winter.. it will trump this and any other cold outlook in the eastern united states.

Positive and Negative phases of the NAO



Here will be the biggest local driver of this outlookk.. the October AO correlation broken down in three different increments. The following meteorlogical winter average anomaly temps from all October AO values since 1950 that averaged out to at least -0.5 ...The mean December AO value from these is -0.343

The October input years are 1960 1966 1968 1974 1976 1979 1980 1981 1993 1997 2002 2003 2004 2006 2009


Average anomaly winter temps with a previous October AO value of at least -1.00


And since this October went -1.51 here is the average anomaly winter temps from the only two years that had October AO values of at least -1.40






*Winter Analogs*

Another method used to forecast in the long range is past weather data of a certain year and season. Most of the analogs are based on the decadal cycle of the PDO...some are based on ENSO and some are based on weather patterns this summer and fall. This coming winter the majority of the analogs are of the colder variety! The analogs that are based on ENSO are ones that take the DJF ONI data only into account.

Here is a list of the analogs used in this outlook
*Winter Analogs*

Another method used to forecast in the long range is past weather data of a certain year and season. Most of the analogs are based on the decadal cycle of the PDO...some are based on ENSO and some are based on weather patterns this summer and fall. This coming winter the majority of the analogs are of the colder variety! The analogs that are based on ENSO are ones that take the DJF ONI data only into account.

Here is a list of the analogs used in this outlook in terms of weight NOTICE HOW WELL THE ANALOG ANOMALIES MATCH THE AO ANOMALIES
2009/10
1952/53
2002/03
1976/77
1987/88

Here is an average of composite temp anomalies for the said winters.




-Recent weather Pattern Over North America-

If one has been paying attention to the current weather pattern that person could easily see a cold season pattern setting up with the split in the jetstream. Polar/Subtropical. This pattern also favors a colder southern tier of the nation. I can easily see how several powerful Nor'easter type systems (One of them is already currently in the works) are produced from what I expect to be some major phasing of the polar and subtropical jetstream's this year. Having all of this and when I average all these ingredients together I come up with the graphics below which is the last section of my winter outlook.

My predictions based on the above info



Last edited by Toot on 2012-12-27, 11:29 pm; edited 3 times in total

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Re: Wxeasterns 2012/13 final winter forecast update

Post by Jed33 on 2012-11-16, 4:55 pm

Excellent analysis Toot! I am all for this coming to pass. Hopefully, this is exactly what happens this year. If so wash I just hope it's not delayed too long. I figure it will be about the 1st-2nd week of December before we see it starting to really get cold.

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Re: Wxeasterns 2012/13 final winter forecast update

Post by Toot on 2012-11-16, 5:08 pm

Jed im just amazed at how well the analog temp anomalies match the AO correlation tempanomalies..thats eerily uncommon because not all of those analogs featured the October neg AO pass out

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Re: Wxeasterns 2012/13 final winter forecast update

Post by Toot on 2012-11-16, 5:09 pm

I have a very unusually high confidence in somethimg similar to this verifying

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Re: Wxeasterns 2012/13 final winter forecast update

Post by etnwx on 2012-11-16, 6:29 pm

Everyone in my family (including me) is praying for a cold, snowy winter. Last winter really sucked. gaah

Nice analysis Toot! I hope it verifies.

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Re: Wxeasterns 2012/13 final winter forecast update

Post by Toot on 2012-11-16, 7:27 pm

Thanks yall..ive really spent days and days of my free time on this during the weekends and evenings after I got off from my day job. I think and hope I have a decently accurate winter forecast for yall now.

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Re: Wxeasterns 2012/13 final winter forecast update

Post by windstorm on 2012-11-16, 8:26 pm

http://snowday1.wordpress.com/2012/11/16/final-winter-forecast-2012-2013-winter-returns/
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Re: Wxeasterns 2012/13 final winter forecast update

Post by Toot on 2012-11-16, 8:35 pm

Thats a nice looking site and all but Craig Mcpeak the owner and forcaster of that site is from Nebraska..its funny how he has keyed in on his own area without giving much support. When no other outlook I know of even resembles his!

That said I wish him luck with his fcorecast!

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Re: Wxeasterns 2012/13 final winter forecast update

Post by joereb1 on 2012-11-16, 11:20 pm

Toot, great job!!! I believe in faith this will verify!!!!! Bring it on : )

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Re: Wxeasterns 2012/13 final winter forecast update

Post by skillsweather on 2012-11-17, 4:20 am



Well look how things have changed. I guess they are figuring we are going to have alot of moisture this winter. (Guess they see this winter to be troughy around our parts.) Were bulls-eye for the moisture and so far were colder then average Very Happy Looking good folks.
Also, the temps they have us in equal chances (probably because of some uncertainties) but they have real good chance of warm winter in west (thats good). So thats another reason why I think even they think we will have a troughy weather in eastern US of A. Very Happy



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Re: Wxeasterns 2012/13 final winter forecast update

Post by Toot on 2012-11-17, 8:20 am


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Re: Wxeasterns 2012/13 final winter forecast update

Post by windstorm on 2012-11-17, 9:29 am

Craig from snowday.org use to have live webcast a few years back. I have talk to him but i don't know if he is a real forecaster or just and amateur forecaster..
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Re: Wxeasterns 2012/13 final winter forecast update

Post by windstorm on 2012-11-20, 9:37 pm

Here is what our local weather man or saying for this winter. We had one other local weatherman to give his forecast Wednesday 11/21/12. Here are the way two are thinking right now. So, the outlook for this winter is leaning heavily on past statistics. This winter should not be anything like last year. It looks like a colder than normal winter can be expected locally. December could start that trend as colder air may not wait long to roll in. I also like our snowfall chances this year. We could have above normal chances for ice/snow through the season. This could mean several "borderline"scenarios of snow/ice/rain. Meaning that some frustrating, anxious days of forecasting could be ahead. Since we could be in that borderline scenario, our chances for ice could increase as well. I don't know about you, but I would take snow any day over ice! Our yearly average for snow is only 4.8", and I think we could at least reach that (possibly more if these patterns persist).

Overall precipitation (rainfall) should lean close to normal. So, hopefully we won't head into Spring with a huge rainfall deficit like the past few years. This could be an interesting season, because past stats have trended at or just below normal.

So, there ya go! I absolutely enjoy doing this every year. And, we'll do a mid season update in late January or so to see how the season is progressing. Please keep in mind that no matter what past seasonal stats indicate or computer models we track show......the weather is going to do what it wants to do! cold
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Re: Wxeasterns 2012/13 final winter forecast update

Post by Toot on 2012-11-20, 10:31 pm

Is this your forecast Windstorm? Or is it someone elses? Next question...who's yearly snowfall average is only 4.8 inches. Is that CHA?

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Re: Wxeasterns 2012/13 final winter forecast update

Post by tom23 on 2012-11-20, 11:14 pm

Toot wrote:Is this your forecast Windstorm? Or is it someone elses? Next question...who's yearly snowfall average is only 4.8 inches. Is that CHA?

Yeah Toot, that needs clarification. I was "corn"fused too when I first read it and was hoping I wasn't the only one. I think he said a forecaster was calling for that, and he quoted the forecaster's words or something. Then I think the location that gets 4.8 is where he's located at.

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Re: Wxeasterns 2012/13 final winter forecast update

Post by windstorm on 2012-11-21, 6:14 am

This is from David Glenn Channel 9 from Chattanooga, Tn. Also Paul from News Channel 3 said above snowfall and cold. And yes, 4 to 5 inches of snowfall at the airport here in Chattanooga is normal. But the real Avg is more like 5 -8 when you take the terrain around Chattanooga. Also David Glenn said looking at past History this winters cold, may have a some morning with below 10 degree temps. I expect the News Channel 12 weatherman to follow close to what the other two are saying. David Glenn and Paul seem to think the coldest weather this year will be in the NE. But would you expect anything difference? cold I gave a forecast a few months back, that tend to be a little milder than this. But one thing my forecast has in common with these two, is where they talk about where the battle zone will set up. Sorry to not making it more clear when i posted. I will update on what the other local weatherman sayings either tonight or Thanks giving..
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Re: Wxeasterns 2012/13 final winter forecast update

Post by Grandpa Nasty on 2012-11-21, 8:14 pm

Just to add to what windstorm wrote, here is the video of Paul Barys winter outlook.

http://www.wrcbtv.com/story/20139510/pauls-winter-weather-outlook-20122013

David Glenn outlook

http://www.newschannel9.com/news/top-stories/stories/david-glenns-long-range-winter-forecast-3253.shtml


Last edited by Grandpa Nasty on 2012-11-21, 8:27 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : added David Glenn)

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Re: Wxeasterns 2012/13 final winter forecast update

Post by windstorm on 2012-11-21, 10:33 pm

Glad you added the video Grandpa Nasty . Great job.. rock on
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Re: Wxeasterns 2012/13 final winter forecast update

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-11-22, 8:40 am

enjoyed the videos. Thanks Nasty. Lets hope they come true.
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Re: Wxeasterns 2012/13 final winter forecast update

Post by joereb1 on 2012-11-22, 2:03 pm

Awesome, Nasty, thanks!!!

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