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Wet Summer plus expected +QBO could equal warm winter

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Wet Summer plus expected +QBO could equal warm winter

Post by Toot on 2013-07-20, 10:03 am

I picked out 7 summers that matched this summers precipitaion patterns and anomalies the best. This is not based on Tennessee alone but more of the whole country. Most of these summers had one thing in common right off the bat! They were mostly neutral to positive NAO summers like this one. Im starting to believe more and more in the theory that a pos NAO during summer means cooler and wetter conditions here. Anyways.. here are the years where the summer precip patterns best match the current one.

1967 1971 1989 1992 1994 2003 2004

Here are those years averaged out into one for summer precip anomalies and you can see that a clear pattern emerges






yikes yikes Here are the following winter temp anomalies averaged out into one from the same years. A clear pattern also emerges and its not a good one for winter weather lovers especially with the expected +phase of the QBO which more often than not prevents long periods of a -AO/-NAO phase during winter. A positive QBO favors a +NAO/AO



QBO values for DJF


ENSO values for DJF


This will be the starting point for my analogs for this winter and I will continue to adjust these years according to the weather pattern and teleconnection values over the next several months. If anyone wants to see some precip or temp data from other years that they feel are important just speak up and I will try and post it. Until next time..have a good one beer


Last edited by Toot on 2013-07-28, 12:28 am; edited 5 times in total

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Re: Wet Summer plus expected +QBO could equal warm winter

Post by windstorm on 2013-07-20, 6:25 pm

Thanks for the info Toot.
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Re: Wet Summer plus expected +QBO could equal warm winter

Post by Toot on 2013-07-28, 12:28 am

Since 2004 is the only triple waited analog in regards to summer weather pattern and similar expected QBO and ENSO values this winter. That will make it the most important analog so far but there is a long ways to go but this temp anomaly for the winter of 2004/05 will have more weight than the ones above due to it being 66.6% more weighted in the important indices of (ENSO/QBO) and it still looks like torch city torch torch torch torch torch torch 



I will continue to adjust these analogs and possibly add and subtract some according to Hurricane season and fall weather pattern/indice values



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Re: Wet Summer plus expected +QBO could equal warm winter

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-07-28, 12:33 am

Toot wrote:Since 2004 is the only triple waited analog in regards to summer weather pattern and similar expected QBO and ENSO values this winter. That will make it the most important analog so far but there is a long ways to go but this temp anomaly  for the winter of 2004/05 will have more weight than the ones above due to it being 66.6% more weighted in the important indices of (ENSO/QBO) and it still looks like torch city torch torch torch torch torch torch 



I will continue to adjust these analogs and possibly add and subtract some according to Hurricane season and fall weather pattern/indice values


bring on some severe weather this winter:torch: 

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Re: Wet Summer plus expected +QBO could equal warm winter

Post by windstorm on 2013-07-30, 12:54 pm

It would not be no surprise to have a warm /mild winter this year because of spring, and summer a little odd this year. I have seen it go below normal all the way into fall and then when winter got hear it's, like someone turn the heater on just in time for winter.
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Re: Wet Summer plus expected +QBO could equal warm winter

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-07-30, 9:03 pm

windstorm wrote:It would not be no surprise to have a warm /mild winter this year because of spring, and summer a little odd this year. I have seen it go below normal all the way into fall and then when winter got hear it's, like someone turn the heater on just in time for winter.
if it worked out like that, just think of all the energy we could save on our electric bill this year... cooler summer, warmer winter:beer: 

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Re: Wet Summer plus expected +QBO could equal warm winter

Post by windstorm on 2013-07-31, 7:42 am

Am all for cool summers. I like some bone cold weather from time to time. As in below zero. Last time it was below zero in Chattanooga was 1985. minus 10 .Long time. But getting that extreme cold cuts into any good snow you might get when the cold is that cold in the south. Shuts the door on the GOM.
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Re: Wet Summer plus expected +QBO could equal warm winter

Post by Toot on 2013-08-01, 8:58 am

JAMSTEC on board for a warm winter also Sad



The CFS for comparison

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