2nd hottest July??

by **snowdog** 2012-08-06, 7:52 pm

OHX says this is the 2nd hottest July on record and 4th wettest (both for Nashville area). That doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. How can you have the 2nd hottest July with that much precip. around? Having lived in this area for over 30 years I can tell you this July was pretty normal if not a bit below. The first few days were very hot but then the next few days following the heat wave were well below normal. After that things seemed to be near normal. Does anyone know if OHX is using temps that have been "modified" from the original readings?

by **Toot** 2012-08-06, 8:14 pm

July was definately warmer than normal statewide. Not sure I buy the second warmest or the 4th wettest out that way though. But im a skeptic..lol

by **snowdog** 2012-08-06, 11:24 pm

Skeptic or not just the physics of it seem almost improbable. I don't know it really surprised me when I read it on OHX's site.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-08-07, 1:52 pm

How hard could it be to quantitatively check this? I'm sure the daily highs and precip are listed. No reason to go off feelings on something like this.

This might be a good place to start:

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KBNA/2012/8/7/DailyHistory.html

by **jmundie** 2012-08-07, 2:42 pm

You can color me surprised that an avg mean temp for the month of July of 84 is the 2nd hottest ever. The average max was 93 degrees - which is 2-3 degrees above normal.

I think it must have to do with the morning lows. They didn't go below normal nearly the entire month.

2nd hottest July?? HistGraphAll?day=7&year=2012&month=7&ID=KBNA&type=1&width=614

2nd hottest July?? HistGraphAll?day=7&year=2012&month=7&ID=KBNA&type=1&width=614

by **Toot** 2012-08-07, 7:09 pm

There are so many different variables of measure one can use to claim "this is the second or the fifteenth coldest/warmest driest/wettest yada..yada..yada
{Insert any month} on record..yada..yada..yada." Im not sure which way the NWS comes up with their monthly average temperature.

Not to mention these same variables have no doubt changed since the heat waves of the 1930's.

by **snowdog** 2012-08-08, 8:11 am

jmundie wrote:You can color me surprised that an avg mean temp for the month of July of 84 is the 2nd hottest ever. The average max was 93 degrees - which is 2-3 degrees above normal.

I think it must have to do with the morning lows. They didn't go below normal nearly the entire month.

Yeah looks like morning temps had something to do with it. Might be an interesting study on UHI effects during summer nights with ample monthly precip. Although if you look at the top 10 wettest July's (for BNA), there isn't one on the hottest list except this July. On the top 10 hottest month's at BNA, most were very dry and a couple had 4 or 5 inches but nothing close to what we had this year. Still doesn't make sense.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-08-08, 8:59 am

its been a pretty hot summer to me so far, course im in west tennessee were we have had way less rain than middle and eastern part of the state... its been a consistent type of hot... but i really think the second half of summer will be much cooler n wetter... so hopefully this is all history from here beer

by **Toot** 2012-08-08, 6:48 pm

This will fit here nicely.

NCDC announced today that July 2012 was the warmest July ever in the US.

Lets take a look at past July's using RAW United States Historical Climatology Network's (USHCN) data .

2nd hottest July?? 2lmqe0z

Looking at the graph...the 3 warmest July's occur before 1940. They are actually 1901..1931 and 1934. It has recently come to light that NASA adjusts temps upward using a math formula. NASA adds two degrees to recently observed temps.

Looking at the graph again if you adjust july 2012 temps up two degrees then July 2012 is .5 degrees warmer than any other July in US on the graph. Without the two degrees July 2012 is 1.5 degrees cooler than July 1901.

USHCN data is actually making liars out of NOAA/NASA!

by **Stovepipe** 2012-08-09, 9:09 am

Toot wrote:This will fit here nicely.

NCDC announced today that July 2012 was the warmest July ever in the US.

Lets take a look at past July's using RAW United States Historical Climatology Network's (USHCN) data .

Looking at the graph...the 3 warmest July's occur before 1940. They are actually 1901..1931 and 1934. It has recently come to light that NASA adjusts temps upward using a math formula. NASA adds two degrees to recently observed temps.

Looking at the graph again if you adjust july 2012 temps up two degrees then July 2012 is .5 degrees warmer than any other July in US on the graph. Without the two degrees July 2012 is 1.5 degrees cooler than July 1901.

USHCN data is actually making liars out of NOAA/NASA!

I say we ban all math. Math is obviously evil!

torch

by **snowdog** 2012-08-09, 6:41 pm

I didn't really want to turn this into a climate debate as we all know where each other stands on that topic. Watts had an interesting post today about the new USCRN data set which is a much higher quality data set. Out of 111 stations the avg. temp for July was found to be 2.1 degrees F cooler than of that produced by NOAA. This would also agree with Roy Spencer's ISH data which uses only 50 stations due to strict standards. I have a feeling there was some spurious warming added to the Nashville data (and cooling of past data) as well to produce the 2nd warmest July even though we had the 4th wettest month.

LINK TO WATTS BLOG POST

by **snowdog** 2012-08-09, 9:13 pm

Just to follow up on the USCRN data, I took a look at the Bowling Green station (which is closest station to Nashville). Mean Temp. was 79.8 and Avg. temp was 80.8. OHX reports 83.5 for Nashville.

by **Toot** 2012-08-09, 9:41 pm

This is their own (NOAA'S) graphical data...you do the MATH...lol

2nd hottest July?? Conus_july_2012_ncdc

I know which July I consider the warmest. beer

by **Stovepipe** 2012-08-10, 8:55 am

In addition to banning math, we should shut down NASA and NOAA. Those neck beards are more concerned with putting robots on Mars than recording our weather and climate correctly. I don't want my tax dollars funding such a shoddy organization. Never mind the fact that NOAA compiles the USHCN data. I don't trust any of it. They are all conspiring against us and are up to no good.

by **snowdog** 2012-08-10, 9:17 am

Stovepipe wrote:In addition to banning math, we should shut down NASA and NOAA. Those neck beards are more concerned with putting robots on Mars than recording our weather and climate correctly. I don't want my tax dollars funding such a shoddy organization. Never mind the fact that NOAA compiles the USHCN data. I don't trust any of it. They are all conspiring against us and are up to no good.

Yeah because government run organizations have never been known to cook their books have they? They have never been known to use fuzzy math to push an agenda. Whether it be Dem or Repub. Why is NOAA spending money on having a large reliable weather recording network and then never use the data? Instead relying upon the old network with obvious problems thus giving them a reason to "adjust" the data. Of course the data, when adjusted, just happens to be adjusted to fit the agenda of those at the top of such organizations. I'm sure it is all innocent though. We can trust the government, right Pollyanna?

by **Stovepipe** 2012-08-10, 9:20 am

I love the smell of a good conspiracy in the morning.

cheers

by **Stovepipe** 2012-08-10, 10:43 am

Getting back to the original topic, here is the actual text from OHX:

Nashville's 2nd Hottest and 4th Wettest July on Record

...JULY IN NASHVILLE WAS THE 2ND HOTTEST AND 4TH WETTEST ON RECORD...

JULY CONTINUED THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN NASHVILLE WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 4.1 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...MAKING JULY 2012 THE 2ND HOTTEST JULY ON RECORD AND THE HOTTEST IN NEARLY 60 YEARS.

TEN HOTTEST JULY'S ON RECORD.

1. 1954...84.1 DEGREES...HOTTEST JULY ON RECORD
2. 2012...83.5
3. 1930...83.4
4. 1901...83.4
5. 1993...83.3
6. 1952...83.0
7. 2011...83.0
8. 1980...82.8
9. 1969...82.7
10.1874...82.6

THERE'S BEEN 9 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN NASHVILLE. THE MOST CONSECUTIVE MONTHS EVER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN NASHVILLE IS 12 THAT SPAN FROM MAY 1881 TO APRIL 1882. THERE WAS STRETCH OF 10 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS FROM MAY 1998 TO FEBRUARY 1999...AND A STRETCH OF 11 MONTHS FROM MAY 2007 TO MARCH 2008.

THERE WERE 6 DAYS OF TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES IN JULY 2012...FIVE CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES WHICH IS THE MOST IN THE MONTH OF JULY...TIED WITH 1881.

THE MOST DAYS WITH 100 DEGREES OR ABOVE IN THE MONTH OF JULY IS 9 DAYS BACK IN 1930. THERE WERE 8 DAYS IN 1954...AND 7 DAYS IN 1881.

THERE WERE 16 DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES 95 DEGREES AND ABOVE IN JULY. THE MOST DAYS IN JULY WITH 95 DEGREES AND ABOVE IS 19 DAYS IN 1952. THERE WERE 18 DAYS IN 1954...AND 1930...AND 17 IN 1980.

NASHVILLE HAD ITS HOTTEST JULY 4TH ON RECORD IN 2012 WHEN THE
HIGH FOR THE DAY WAS 103 DEGREES AND LOW WAS 89. IN CONTRAST THE COOLEST JULY 4TH ON RECORD WAS IN 1968...WHEN THE HIGH WAS 81 DEGREES AND THE LOW WAS 55 DEGREES.

NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NASHVILLE SET IN JULY 2012

JULY 1ST...105...PREVIOUS RECORD 101 IN 1954
JULY 4TH...103...PREVIOUS RECORD 101 IN 1948
JULY 5TH...104...PREVIOUS RECORD 101 IN 1954
JULY 6TH...105...PREVIOUS RECORD 100 IN 1874
JULY 7TH...104...PREVIOUS RECORD 102 IN 1954

A NEW RECORD HIGHEST DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (NIGHTTIME LOW) WAS SET ON JULY 1ST WHEN THE LOW WAS 81 DEGREES...PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 77 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1993.

THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF JULY WAS 93.9 DEGREES AND THE AVERAGE LOW WAS 73.0 DEGREES. THE NORMAL (30 YEAR) HIGH FOR JULY IS 88.7 DEGREES...AND THE NORMAL LOW IS 69.5 DEGREES.

THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE DURING THE MONTH WAS 105 DEGREES ON THE 1ST AND 6TH. THE LOWEST TEMPERATURE WAS 68 DEGREES ON THE 30TH.

JULY 2012 IN NASHVILLE ENDED AS THE 4TH WETTEST JULY ON RECORD AND THE WETTEST IN MORE THAN 100 YEARS.

TEN WETTEST JULY'S ON RECORD IN NASHVILLE.

1. 1878...9.43 INCHES...WETTEST JULY ON RECORD.
2. 1897...8.53
3. 1879...8.47
4. 2012...8.38
5. 1936...8.33
6. 1875...8.12
7. 1896...7.83
8. 1950...7.75
9. 1973...7.67
10.1967...7.46

RAINFALL IN JULY TOTALED 8.38 INCHES WHICH WAS 4.74 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WET JULY CAME ON THE HEELS OF THE 2ND DRIEST JUNE ON RECORD IN NASHVILLE.

A NEW CALENDAR DAY RAINFALL RECORD WAS SET ON JULY 14TH WHEN 1.68 INCHES OR RAIN FELL BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 1.59 INCHES SET BACK IN 1947.

THERE WERE 9 DAYS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN JULY 2012 IN NASHVILLE. ON AVERAGE THERE WERE 9 DAYS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN JULY.

THE AVERAGE WIND SPEED WAS 4.8 MILES AN HOUR. THE FASTEST GUST WAS 47 MILES AN HOUR ON THE 19TH.

FOG OCCURRED ON 12 DAYS. THERE WERE NO DAYS WITH DENSE FOG.

$$

BOYD

Pretty interesting write up.

snowdog wrote:Skeptic or not just the physics of it seem almost improbable. I don't know it really surprised me when I read it on OHX's site.

It was hot and there were thunderstorms. Seems probable to me.

by **snowdog** 2012-08-10, 11:03 am

Moist air is harder to heat than dry air. That was one of the big reason we torched in June to early July. Of course more precip. brings more clouds which modifies afternoon heating. A couple of reasons why you usually don't see wet years in July listed as warmest years...this year being the exception and the whole reason why it stood out to me as being odd.

Also I ran some numbers on the Bowling Green stations for comparison sake. Comparing the new CRN Bowling Green station (700') to the NCDC Bowling Green station at the airport (550') here is what July reports.

CRN:
Mean Average: 79.77
Average: 80.75
Average High: 91.12
Average Low: 70.41

NCDC:
Mean Average: 83.78
Average: 84.54
Average High: 95.87
Average Low: 74.40

by **Stovepipe** 2012-08-10, 11:34 am

It seems the record heat was at the first of the month while the record rainfall was towards the middle/end. I don't know, I'm just not seeing what is so odd here.

by **WxFreak** 2012-08-10, 12:19 pm

Questions I would have to pose are: On how many days did rain occur? Was all the heavy rain concentrated in just a few days? In the reading above it states that there were 9 days with thunderstorms. That tells me 22 days were dry, and that most of the rain fell in just a few days with heavy thunderstorms. Thus, considering the summer pattern we were in--a VERY hot ridge of record proportions vacillating back and forth over the area, I would have to deem all-time record heat a possibility.

I know my sweat meter sure thinks it was one of the hottest Julys, at least in my life time.
beer

by **jmundie** 2012-08-10, 2:10 pm

snowdog wrote:Moist air is harder to heat than dry air. That was one of the big reason we torched in June to early July. Of course more precip. brings more clouds which modifies afternoon heating. A couple of reasons why you usually don't see wet years in July listed as warmest years...this year being the exception and the whole reason why it stood out to me as being odd.

Also I ran some numbers on the Bowling Green stations for comparison sake. Comparing the new CRN Bowling Green station (700') to the NCDC Bowling Green station at the airport (550') here is what July reports.

CRN:
Mean Average: 79.77
Average: 80.75
Average High: 91.12
Average Low: 70.41

NCDC:
Mean Average: 83.78
Average: 84.54
Average High: 95.87
Average Low: 74.40

I know that the numbers are supposed to be adjusted for the urban heat island - I do wonder if a significant enough adjustment is occurring (and when we're talking a degree or two being the different between normal and record, it seems even more important)

I can assure you that I see the effects of the urban heat island prominently during the winter. Even with temperatures well below freezing, snow starts sticking in the suburbs of Nashville hours before it starts sticking in my area near downtown. Granted, there's a 3-4 hundred foot different in elevation - but, for instance, I left word in brentwood at elevation 850 or so the morning of the Jan 2010 snow/sleet/snow storm - there was a solid inch of accumulation on parking lots and roads were treacherous. By the time I got to downtown, there was nothing on the road. I sat with the curtain drawn to watch my street - we didn't start getting road accumulation until 4 PM. it had been snowing and sticking to the roads in Brentwood for 6 hours at that point.

And I can guarantee Nashville isn't as bad as Memphis. There are pockets of density here, but there are large expanses of nearly untouched forest covering parge portions ofthe county that Memphis doesn't have.

by **Toot** 2012-08-12, 9:16 pm

I dont have much problem whith BNA's claim of second warmest...there were several insane temps out that way last month. I have a problem with NOAA claiming this the warmest july on record when the data clearly shows otherwise..and its also bad science.

Math is only part of science. Synoptically 1936 was the warmest JULY on record and it still holds most all time hottest recorded temps . July 2012 is close but it doesnt have a chance against the intensity of the heatwave of 1936.

You cant mathematically average temps from 50 different states and get anythng more than just an average. Even then there is a margin(Tolerance) of error. Graphical data paints a much different picture that a two year old can understand.

Tricks are for kids NOAA!

by **Stovepipe** 2012-08-13, 10:24 am

Toot wrote:I dont have much problem whith BNA's claim of second warmest...there were several insane temps out that way last month. I have a problem with NOAA claiming this the warmest july on record when the data clearly shows otherwise..and its also bad science.

Math is only part of science. Synoptically 1936 was the warmest JULY on record and it still holds most all time hottest recorded temps . July 2012 is close but it doesnt have a chance against the intensity of the heatwave of 1936.

You cant mathematically average temps from 50 different states and get anythng more than just an average. Even then there is a margin(Tolerance) of error. Graphical data paints a much different picture that a two year old can understand.

Tricks are for kids NOAA!

by **snowdog** 2012-08-13, 10:32 am

jmundie wrote:I know that the numbers are supposed to be adjusted for the urban heat island - I do wonder if a significant enough adjustment is occurring (and when we're talking a degree or two being the different between normal and record, it seems even more important)

Thats a big point too. They say they adjust for UHI (actually they adjust very little for UHI) but when you look at final numbers vs raw they cool the past 1900-1950's/60's and warm the present. Lately, over the last decade, the temps have been heavily adjusted upward. Which is how you get skewed results that do not seem to jive with expectations. Like 2nd warmest and 4th wettest. Roy Spencer has taken a pretty deep look into the adjustments and has found that most of the "global warming" signal is contained in the adjustments.

by **snowdog** 2012-08-13, 10:42 am

Toot wrote:I dont have much problem whith BNA's claim of second warmest...there were several insane temps out that way last month. I have a problem with NOAA claiming this the warmest july on record when the data clearly shows otherwise..and its also bad science.

We had some insane temps out this way? We had a few very warm days to start the month but we also set a minimum high temp record. The further west you went the worse the temp anomalies were...because they have received very little rain vs Nashville for the month of July. You cannot discard the "math" portion of it. Increased soil moisture and precip in general play a large role in July temps. Why is 2012 the only year on the hottest list that also shows up on the wettest list? Also if you look, the 3 years that were "wetter" were all in the 1800's. I'm not sure what their measuring methodology was back then but 2012 was the wettest of the modern era.