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Fall Severe Weather Thread

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Fall Severe Weather Thread

Post by Toot on 2012-09-02, 4:14 pm

The next couple of days could be pretty active in the severe weather department. The 4km NAM continues to suggest some fierce looking storms today/tonight in the TN valley. The graphic below is suggestive of possible shortlived supercells that could produce some quick spinup tornados once again today/tonight. Im also watching for the possibility of a late season embedded MCS to form as storm mode becomes more linear towards dark.

This possible MCS would mainly affect middle TN and parts of Alabama as it works its way southeastward.








Last edited by Toot on 2013-04-15, 8:39 pm; edited 2 times in total

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Re: Fall Severe Weather Thread

Post by Toot on 2012-09-02, 4:16 pm

TOR watch until 10pm CDT


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Re: Fall Severe Weather Thread

Post by Toot on 2012-09-02, 5:09 pm

This may be the first significant SVR threat of the fall season if the 12z Euro is correct. Euro says strong cold front and LPS with a classic track for SVR next weekend



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Re: Fall Severe Weather Thread

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-09-02, 6:35 pm

Toot wrote:This may be the first significant SVR threat of the fall season if the 12z Euro is correct. Euro says strong cold front and LPS with a classic track for SVR next weekend

O MY PAW PAW wash just getting off work... off tomorrow. be up late tonight to study this particular system toot is showing

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Re: Fall Severe Weather Thread

Post by Toot on 2012-09-02, 6:56 pm

The expected MCS is taking shape in southern TN into Alabama. The threat of damaging winds will go up in the shaded area this evening and tonight!!


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Re: Fall Severe Weather Thread

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-09-03, 7:12 pm

still like the potential of some severe weather here by late friday into early saturday morning... euro has now gone to a stout close off low. just to our north... gfs has a powerful cold front boundary slammming into some a unstable air mass... cmc is going with that solution also... a very sharp deep trough follows behind this system... low and mid level jet look favorable for severe late friday... something we need to keep eye as week rolls along.

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Re: Fall Severe Weather Thread

Post by Toot on 2012-09-05, 4:20 pm

Line of severe storms are approaching the state..be interesting to see if an MCS can form or if the convection starts to weaken as we lose daytime heating. Anyways.. watches are already out towards west TN and up into KY


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Re: Fall Severe Weather Thread

Post by Toot on 2012-09-05, 8:04 pm

Not far from here up in KY
uh oh
Funnel cloud reported by trained spotters

TORNADO WARNING
KYC121-147-235-060045-
/O.NEW.KJKL.TO.W.0045.120905T2356Z-120906T0045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
756 PM EDT WED SEP 5 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
KNOX COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
NORTHEASTERN MCCREARY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
NORTHERN WHITLEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 845 PM EDT

* AT 753 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD
NEAR CUMBERLAND FALLS S.P....OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF WHITLEY CITY.
A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AT ANY TIME. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS
DANGEROUS STORM MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
KRUPP AND BARK CAMP AROUND 805 PM EDT.
CLIO...YOUNGS CREEK...LIBERTY AND REDBIRD AROUND 810 PM EDT.
WALDEN...DEERING...GOLDBUG AND RYE AROUND 815 PM EDT.
WOFFORD AROUND 820 PM EDT.
ROCKHOLDS...FABER AND BARTON AROUND 825 PM EDT.
WOODBINE AROUND 830 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE LIBERTY...
SILER AND PROVIDENCE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

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Re: Fall Severe Weather Thread

Post by Toot on 2012-09-05, 8:06 pm

That cell was not in a watch and wasnt under the slight risk..lol

facepalm

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Re: Fall Severe Weather Thread

Post by Toot on 2012-09-06, 3:27 pm

A strong cold front will sweep across the eastern US this weekend bringing severe storms over a rather large area. The atmosphere will destabilize along and ahead of this cold front so instability will be plentiful. Adequate shear along with strong forcing will be there to support several storm modes. Damaging winds and hail will be the main threats with the possibility of a slight Tornado threat in the upper OH valley and northeast.

After the storms pass it will feel like heaven!!

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Re: Fall Severe Weather Thread

Post by Toot on 2012-09-06, 7:53 pm

Looks like DW is taking it on the chin right about now. MCS headed SE probably through western and middle TN. That sucker is screamin!! affraid


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Re: Fall Severe Weather Thread

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2012-09-06, 7:56 pm

Man we just had an awesome outflow boundry come through off of the bow echo to our NW. 50 mph gusts at least. You can also see it racing SE in front of the storm on radar.
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Re: Fall Severe Weather Thread

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-09-06, 8:06 pm

it will be interestiing to see if some more storms fire along that boundary dw... something to keep eye on

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Re: Fall Severe Weather Thread

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2012-09-06, 8:16 pm

In the last week or so we have had a hurricane come through , two severe TS warnings and one Tornado warning at my house and it has rained a total of 1 inch . gaah

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Re: Fall Severe Weather Thread

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-09-06, 8:34 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:it will be interestiing to see if some more storms fire along that boundary dw... something to keep eye on
and thats what is exactly is going on at the moment... new storms firing between dyersburg and brownsville.

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Re: Fall Severe Weather Thread

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2012-09-06, 8:52 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:it will be interestiing to see if some more storms fire along that boundary dw... something to keep eye on
and thats what is exactly is going on at the moment... new storms firing between dyersburg and brownsville.

Go outside. Wind should be there any second
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Re: Fall Severe Weather Thread

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-09-06, 9:32 pm

Dyersburg Weather wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:it will be interestiing to see if some more storms fire along that boundary dw... something to keep eye on
and thats what is exactly is going on at the moment... new storms firing between dyersburg and brownsville.

Go outside. Wind should be there any second
yeppers dw, i was outside wathcing the cloud come in... like you said nice wind gust out front, almost took my pattio furniture down the road a bit.

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Re: Fall Severe Weather Thread

Post by Toot on 2012-09-07, 8:44 am

Excellent discussion from MEG

A POTENT POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING WILL EJECT SOUTHEASTWARD AND TAKE ON A MORE NEUTRAL TILT
AS IT PUSHES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO
FORCE A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
INTO THE OZARKS OF ARKANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LINE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE
OVER TOP OF THE EXPANSIVE WARM SECTOR IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN
EXCESS OF 40 KTS...WITH 30-40 KTS AT 850 MB AND 40-60 KTS AT 500
MB...ALONG WITH STRONG FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD
SUPPORT A QUASI LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS) WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS. THIS LINE OF STORMS SHOULD FEED OFF OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG AND LI/S
BETWEEN -4C AND -6C. SEVERE STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE SHOULD
PRESENT A THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH SOME
LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. THE GREATEST SEVERE
WEATHER RISK WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY TEND TO BE SOME WEAKENING WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI LATE TONIGHT AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY
WEAKENS...A SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND THIS AREA WILL BE
INCLUDED IN THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.

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Re: Fall Severe Weather Thread

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-09-07, 5:56 pm

things are firing pretty good in missouri and arkansas... meso just came out for my area.

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Re: Fall Severe Weather Thread

Post by Toot on 2012-09-07, 6:27 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:things are firing pretty good in missouri and arkansas... meso just came out for my area.

Looking at mesoanalysis its pretty damn unstable over your way. Probably gonna explode anytime now scared

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Re: Fall Severe Weather Thread

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-09-07, 9:37 pm

storms just to the west of jonesboro starting to show signs of bow signatures... i may have to go out n play later

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Re: Fall Severe Weather Thread

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2012-09-07, 9:39 pm

Not where I can post it but look at the wind velocity radar out of Memphis, affraid Two headed monster. One toward Dyersburg and one toward Memphis. 80 mph winds in Arkansas.

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Re: Fall Severe Weather Thread

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-09-07, 10:00 pm

yep good catch dyer... the storms seem to be holding together quite nicely

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Re: Fall Severe Weather Thread

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-09-07, 10:34 pm

i am about reaady to call this thing a derecheo folks... just west of the miss. river

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Re: Fall Severe Weather Thread

Post by Toot on 2012-09-11, 8:10 pm

Looking at models the Fall severe season is fixing to get started. I wont use the word outbreak.. but it sure is looking interesting to say the least!!


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