January Severe

todays 12z euro... syaing, we MAY have to start a january severe weather thread?

If the thermodynamics were a bit better, I'd say the system on the 9th/10th had a better chance at producing thunder than the 12th/13th, but with dew points in the mid to upper 40s, it's only going to be a terd floater.

New Thread for January. I moved a few posts over here that were in Dec. Severe. Carry on.

12z Euro really bombs that second system around the 11th-12th time frame, 60s dews to St. Louis and the 10˚C line at H85 is into Central MI. Intense negatively tilted H5 anomaly with extremely strong wind profiles throughout the troposphere (talking a 90 kt max at H85), that would really have the potential for something big somewhere. Obviously being 216 hrs out, anything like that is far from certain.

I'm not so sure with this first system considering the lack of moisture return, although I find the trend towards a more open wave on several models interesting, which would likely enhance snow prospects further north.

andyhb wrote:12z Euro really bombs that second system around the 11th-12th time frame, 60s dews to St. Louis and the 10˚C line at H85 is into Central MI. Intense negatively tilted H5 anomaly with extremely strong wind profiles throughout the troposphere (talking a 90 kt max at H85), that would really have the potential for something big somewhere. Obviously being 216 hrs out, anything like that is far from certain.

I'm not so sure with this first system considering the lack of moisture return, although I find the trend towards a more open wave on several models interesting, which would likely enhance snow prospects further north.

I came to bring the pain via 988mb of low pressure

i have been watching that timeframe for some time... if that verifies what toots is showing... it would be like

meg is starting to hint at some tornado potential with thursday system... a potent triple point area setting up... i tend to agree with that, as i have been harping n watching this for over a week... second system coming n late next weekend, looks to be even more potent... surface dewpoints get to low 60s even just north of nashville into lower ohio valley regions... pattern to me looks more favorable for severe that way any winter threat for at least 2 weeks or maybe longer.

still watching the big severe weather treat on 28th 29th... todays euro run has trough flatter vs yesterdays runs... latest gfs has the slp further north which takes best shear with it... still time for change and watch trends, this has tremendous potential, especially areas back more to the west, perhaps into west tn... intersting to see what spc will do in mornngs updates... more post later

and just what i thought after yesterdays model runs, the severe threat is zapped... didnt like the trends i saw yesterday... doessnt suprise me... still may get a iso severe storm here in west tn... nothing big though.

looking at models today, we are starting to head back into a severe event with more ump... especially for west tn and into southern mid. tenn... the 12z gfs is like wow... getting close to a nice cape high shear event... shouldnt be no problem to get dew points into the mid 60s here in west tn... thats plenty of juice itself in a winter time threat... now if we just get a nice dry punch in the mid levels... we should get some sunshine that afternoon for tuesday... that will only flare up the instability even more... consider me intersting in this threat big time... spc should come back with circles on outlooks if 0z models hold

and just what i expected, spc beefed her up big time. over lapping a day 4 and day event... super cells with tornadoes are a concern this go around, no doubt... if models hold... i will surely be on top of this baby, cause i may take off tuesday to have me some fun. stay tuned folks...

What Bruce is referring to

Code:

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
  ACUS48 KWNS 260925
  SPC AC 260925
 
  DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0325 AM CST SAT JAN 26 2013
 
  VALID 291200Z - 031200Z
 
  ...DISCUSSION...
  LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE PRESENTS A BETTER GENERAL CONSENSUS
  IN THE FORECAST EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE
  CONUS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO
  THIS TIME YESTERDAY. WHILE THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE
  CONFIGURATIONS AND MAGNITUDES OF THE VARIOUS FLOW FIELDS AND
  PARAMETERS...ANALYSIS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CMC/GFS ENSEMBLE AND
  DPROG/DT LOOPS LEND SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FOR THE REINTRODUCTION OF A
  SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST...NOW VALID FOR D4/TUESDAY...WITH A
  CONTINUING THREAT INTO AT LEAST PART OF D5/WEDNESDAY.
 
  AS INDICATED IN THE D3 OTLK...A WARM MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS
  EXPECTED TO RESIDE ACROSS THE SCNTRL U.S. AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING
  LARGE SCALE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. WHILE ECMWF
  CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND LESS FULLY-PHASED UPPER
  TROUGH WHEN COMPARED WITH GFS/UKMET MODELS...EVEN IT COMES AROUND TO
  FORECASTING AN AMPLIFIED AND SUBSTANTIALLY PHASED LARGE SCALE UPPER
  TROUGH ACROSS THE SCNTRL AND ERN U.S. BEGINNING D4/TUESDAY AND
  CONTINUING THROUGH D5/WEDNESDAY. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
  RAPID ONSET OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AND SUBSEQUENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT
  ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SHARPENING COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP EWD/SEWD
  ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND THEN TO THE
  TN VALLEY/NRN GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHEAR AND
  INSTABILITY AS CURRENTLY FORECAST WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED STORMS IN
  EITHER SUPERCELL OR LINEAR FORMS FROM NORTHEAST TX ACROSS THE
  ARKLATEX TO SERN MO/WRN TN. SQUALL LINE OR LINE SEGMENT EVOLUTION
  SHOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY WITH TIME AS COLD FRONT/CONVECTIVE COLD
  POOLS FURTHER INTENSIFY AMIDST MODEST INSTABILITY. DAMAGING
  WINDS...POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD...WILL BE THE GREATEST HAZARD WITH THIS
  CONVECTION. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR
  TORNADOES AS WELL.
 
  EXPECT THE STRONG FORCING AND SHEAR TO MAINTAIN A QLSC WITH DAMAGING
  WIND POTENTIAL AT LEAST INTO THE TN VALLEY THROUGH EARLY
  WEDNESDAY/D5. BEYOND THIS TIME...GREATER MODEL SPREAD AND RESULTING
  UNCERTAINTY BEGIN TO IMPACT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER.
  HAVE OPTED TO RELY ON GFS ENSEMBLE JOINT PROBABILITY FORECASTS FOR
  INSTABILITY AND SHEAR THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. THESE PRODUCTS SUGGEST
  THAT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN WITH EWD
  EXTENT DESPITE STRONG QPF AND UVV SIGNALS ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT
  TO THE EAST COAST. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MAY BE ADDED IN LATER
  OUTLOOKS IF MODEL CONSENSUS IMPROVES.

tennessee storm09 wrote:and just what i expected, spc beefed her up big time. over lapping a day 4 and day event... super cells with tornadoes are a concern this go around, no doubt... if models hold... i will surely be on top of this baby, cause i may take off tuesday to have me some fun. stay tuned folks...

I'll be there with you.

Bleh!! Im not seeing any organized threat..looks like a strung out mess to me. Isolated severe at best!

Toot wrote:Bleh!! Im not seeing any organized threat..looks like a strung mess to me. Isolated severe at best!

not the gfs, euro has most precip behind front, which makes no sense...

I cant find a good organized event on any operational model

Dyersburg Weather wrote:

tennessee storm09 wrote:and just what i expected, spc beefed her up big time. over lapping a day 4 and day event... super cells with tornadoes are a concern this go around, no doubt... if models hold... i will surely be on top of this baby, cause i may take off tuesday to have me some fun. stay tuned folks...

I'll be there with you.

on one of these events dyer, you want to get up with me... just let me know... i love it man... todays euro isnt doing us no good today... but the gfs has great interest still, more than aduquate instabillity approaching 1000 k/jt cape, 60 knts shear is plenty to get things going big in a winter severe event

tennessee storm09 wrote: but the gfs has great interest still, more than aduquate instabillity approaching 1000 k/jt cape, 60 knts shear is plenty to get things going big in a winter severe event

18z GFS looks pretty meh to me..unorganized double barrel low too far north for much here in TN

0z gfs looks ppretty darn good to me toot, directional shear may be lacking some... but low level shear is insane... and the 0z gfs develops another secondary low over illininois which will help backing of wind speed in the lower atmosphere, not sure what yor seeing man... but look for spc to contine its high probs of a sevre event at least west middle tennessee... now lets see if the 0z euro can lean more toward the gfs again like last nights run

well spc continues its prsopects with this up coming severe event...most of arkansas into extreme west tn in the 30 percent already... look for this to expand some as more model data comes in... spc already hinting at going with a area of moderate risk... nice cape face values now up 1000 k/jt over parts of west tn... as fred gossage has mention to me before, alots of times models even under do that more often than not... i like the lookks of a seconday slp developing just south of st.louis and it rapidly deepens, this can get nasty folks... meg has already hinted at super discrete cells getting out ahead of a itense qlcs with tornadoes embeded along that even.

wow, 12z nam coming very ominous with a very intense qlc over western tn... with few super cells just ahead... whats intersting is behind it... according to the 850 thickness, snow develops behind it in west tn. with the development of another surface lp over central miss

This has the potential to be big. Shear and dewpoints are good. Cape is on the lower side but respectable. I see where analogs keep coming up for Super Tuesday 2008.

good point dyer, actually the cape is starting to get modeled slightly higher it seems with each run, 2 things we need to happen for sure... directional shear is in question and cap need to break earlier than modeled, which lots of time, models have hard time picking up that... if that happens, storms can get more surface based, then it will be game on like that situation, that being siad, very confidednt this will be our biggest severe threat here in some time... which has been lacking anyways

This whole thing is being progged as a strung out mess. Ive read the SPC and MEG discussions but for the life of me I just dont see it with this type of look

still looking like a very intenses qlcs with embed quick spin ups, cap can breaksome earlier, different ball game... spc even mentions that. wouldnt doubt we get into a moderate risk especially along or just east of ms river... respect yor input toot, but please stick to the winter side of things buddy. but we are still friends...