Late January warmup with possible severe

by **Toot** 2012-01-14, 11:46 pm

This storm could possibly shake up the pattern and get us winter wx lovers closer to something we have been looking for since winter began... but that remains to be seen and we can put that on the back burner for now because the story for the second half of January is warm.

Im affraid that there could be some records broken after January 20th and those would be record highs for the month of January. These temps could be aided by a strong lakes cutting system that pulls excessive amounts of warm air up from the tropical regions into the eastern US and im talking 70 degrees or better in January.

Being that there is a substancial warm up coming in about a week or so the chances for severe weather will be higher than normal for this time of year. With that in mind I went looking for something to track and wa-la I about shit when I seen what the euro is showing at Hr 240

Its still a long ways out but that is definately a severe look with arctic air just pouring down into the western US and moist tropical like air being sucked up into the warm sector in the eastern US. Fireworks would go off where those two airmasses butted heads. Not only that but that type of storm could definately flip a pattern completely over yikes

Late January warmup with possible severe 2vry83l

Would love to see 2m temps for that hour Stove?

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-01-15, 5:44 am

and the 0z euro holds serve toot, the gfs has hinted at a big storm around this time frame for some time also. i think this strom system will be talked about quite a bit the up and coming days as we get closer... and no doubt about it, it could change the pattern.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-15, 11:32 am

by **Toot** 2012-01-15, 2:14 pm

Thanks stove...I think it will get a little warmer than that if a similar storm that the euro is showing verifies.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-01-15, 10:39 pm

already spc is hinting in its long range saying a MEAN trough develops out west and after the jan. 22 period a active convective pattern looks to be setting up... course this is beyond their 4 cast period... but gees, this far out and already hinting on the very beginning, its fixing to be rock n roll time around 24th.

by **Toot** 2012-01-16, 7:25 pm

12z GFS is something serious..... has a really mature cyclone.... 988mb yikes

Late January warmup with possible severe 2012011612_EUS_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_192

984 at 216 yikes

Late January warmup with possible severe 2012011612_EUS_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_216

If a storm like that verifies. Its ON!!

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-01-16, 7:40 pm

toot, look at the 18z... down right scary folks... upper jet and lower jet both look very impressive... that baby just bombs out as it passes to our north. what a system.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-01-16, 7:44 pm

this system is modeled to pull dew points in the lower 60 s far north as southern illinois...look at the rich deep gulf moisture out ahead of this baby... i may loose it yall... i know its still early, but this system has been modeled for nearly a week...

by **Toot** 2012-01-16, 8:11 pm

Kevin (Memphisweather)... has some good input

The GFS solution would probably be nothing more than a fast moving squall line...that may not even be severe.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-01-16, 8:32 pm

Toot wrote:Kevin... has some good input
The GFS solution would probably be nothing more than a fast moving squall line...that may not even be severe.

lmao... just plain facepalm

by **Homemommy** 2012-01-17, 8:10 am

I tell you what, guys. These storms lately have got me worried about spring. Down right scary.

by **Toot** 2012-01-17, 9:43 am

Just saving some images here to see how this ends up verifying..this was from the 18zgfs yesterday

Late January warmup with possible severe 2vkkpyd

Late January warmup with possible severe 2vkkpyd

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-17, 10:57 am

lol simulpost!

by **Toot** 2012-01-17, 10:59 am

Stovepipe wrote:lol simulpost!

lol...great minds think alike Razz

by **Toot** 2012-01-17, 4:01 pm

12z FIM

Late January warmup with possible severe 3hap_sfc_f180

Late January warmup with possible severe Wind_850_f180

Late January warmup with possible severe Wind_250_f180

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-17, 4:16 pm

Wow 75 knots would be over 85 mph at 850mb. yikes

by **Grandpa Nasty** 2012-01-17, 4:45 pm

Not sure what kind of weather everyone else is getting now but it's pissing buckets here. Lightning, thunder, heavy rain. Slow commute on the way to work. Sucks because I'm on nights next 2 weeks and won't be able to enjoy it tonight.

Severe thunderstorm warning in effect here now.

Radar on phone looks nasty. Idiots leaving day shift with no umbrellas. Ha.
Have fun tonight and drink 1 for me the next 2 weeks.

dar Radar

by **Toot** 2012-01-17, 6:23 pm

Latest 18zGFS completely throws out any severe threat as the low is much further south lmao

Probably just an off run but if continues to trend south we'll be talking about this one in the winter section hurry

by Guest 2012-01-17, 7:00 pm

Bruce said 18z gfs was a messed up run. Discard it

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-01-17, 7:54 pm

Tom23 wrote:Bruce said 18z gfs was a messed up run. Discard it

there is just way 2 big of a change on that run... only just 6 hours from last run. lmao.... course i will try to look at the 0z gfs tonigh if i can make it, gees they are working the crap out of me at work this week... by the way, 12 euro finally showing sign of trending towards the gfs, finally ejecting its energy east... but its a weaker soulution, still some severe.

by **Toot** 2012-01-17, 9:07 pm

Next Mondays highs as predicted by the NWS

Late January warmup with possible severe MaxT6_conus

Spring fever may set in.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-17, 9:08 pm

We are so going to get a major snow storm after that, and it's going to catch everybody off guard.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-01-17, 9:17 pm

Toot wrote:Next Mondays highs as predicted by the NWS

Spring fever may set in.

nice fuel for the fire there brother... dew points approachiing the mid 60s also.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-01-17, 10:27 pm

Tom23 wrote:Bruce said 18z gfs was a messed up run. Discard it

there are 2 main reasons thats going to keep this system to our north. there isnt any blocking to squash the system to our south, the positive nao prooves that. second there is a se ridge in place, enough to help deflect the lp to our nw.... this has the makings of being a classic la nina wiinter outbreak.