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**Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by snowdog on 2013-01-15, 12:12 am

00z Ukie doesn't agree with the NAM.

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by SEMonroeWx on 2013-01-15, 6:01 am

6z NAM still looks good for East TN

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by dahrkdaiz on 2013-01-15, 6:26 am

So other forums are pretty much "laughing" at the NAM's forecast. Would someone mind explaining why the NAM is considered unreliable/reliable in this situation? Or is this just something where some models are finally playing catch up now that this recent front has passed/is passing through.

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Reb on 2013-01-15, 7:35 am

GFS holds its serve, meanwhile NAM gets our hopes up


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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by tom23 on 2013-01-15, 8:41 am

I'm still not about to buy it... local mets and mrx are talking, at best, about a couple hours of a mix. No way we get anything out of a mix. Looks like the temps will be the issue here.

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Toot on 2013-01-15, 8:55 am

dahrkdaiz wrote:So other forums are pretty much "laughing" at the NAM's forecast. Would someone mind explaining why the NAM is considered unreliable/reliable in this situation? Or is this just something where some models are finally playing catch up now that this recent front has passed/is passing through.
The nam tends to swing around wildly from run to run past 48 hrs..but its actually being pretty consistent right now. That said I wouldnt trust it!



Anyways..gotta like the trends in ensemble guidance this morning if you're in east TN

GFS ensembles hr 54 and 60



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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Neals on 2013-01-15, 9:46 am

Accuweather is not showing any snow. WBIR has 30% wintry mix for Friday AM hours. I would love for them to get on board. They must see something that you guys can not.

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by tom23 on 2013-01-15, 9:50 am

Neals wrote:Accuweather is not showing any snow. WBIR has 30% wintry mix for Friday AM hours. I would love for them to get on board. They must see something that you guys can not.

Temps will be the major issue here. Moisture won't be a problem IMO, but the temps will make it a mix most likely

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Jed33 on 2013-01-15, 9:58 am

12z NAM, I love you E TN and W NC! I don't know guys, it could be on to something. The gfs ensembles support it fwiw

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by OakRidgeWeatherGuy on 2013-01-15, 10:07 am

http://www.weatherstreet.com/CloudsPrecip.htm very interesting...take a look around 1pm on thursday...showing big snow in the state of tn!

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by snowdog on 2013-01-15, 10:18 am

Taking the NAM temps verbatim from the skew-t's, a lot of warmth to overcome in east TN. Not saying it can't be overcome, since ULL usually depend on dynamically driven cooling.

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Toot on 2013-01-15, 10:19 am

Folks...the news channels and nws office around here pretty much have a policy of waiting to the last minute to call for snow. This is nothing new..they have operated for years this way. Being in the south this normally works out for them...but there is always a few times outta of the year it dont. This will likely be one of those times. This is one of the main benefits of reading a weather forum...you get to see the same raw data that they use and draw up your own opinion. The data that I see suggests a winter storm for us here in east TN. That said..I would be much more comfortable if the euro comes more on board with this today


Last edited by Toot on 2013-01-15, 10:23 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Neals on 2013-01-15, 10:20 am

Jed33 wrote:12z NAM, I love you E TN and W NC! I don't know guys, it could be on to something. The gfs ensembles support it fwiw

Can you give me a link?

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by tom23 on 2013-01-15, 10:30 am

snowdog wrote:Taking the NAM temps verbatim from the skew-t's, a lot of warmth to overcome in east TN. Not saying it can't be overcome, since ULL usually depend on dynamically driven cooling.

Yes, the temps will end up making the system a mixed bag of precip. I'm willing to bet on it.

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Jed33 on 2013-01-15, 10:39 am

Sorry neals, I'm using my phone for all this data, and despite being a smart phone, it's not a very big storer of data, and doesn't post images well. I can try to post later.

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by AndyP on 2013-01-15, 10:45 am

At this point, I am just happy that MRX is showing a 60 percent chance of rain/snow for my area Thursday into Thursday night. That leaves them the leeway to tinker with their forecast as Thursday gets closer.
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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by snowdog on 2013-01-15, 10:51 am

Neals wrote:
Jed33 wrote:12z NAM, I love you E TN and W NC! I don't know guys, it could be on to something. The gfs ensembles support it fwiw

Can you give me a link?



LINK TO PSU EWALL SITE

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Toot on 2013-01-15, 10:52 am

12z nam completely overcomes any warm temps
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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Toot on 2013-01-15, 10:56 am

I hope that image uploaded ok..im on my phone and dont normally post images from my phone


Last edited by Toot on 2013-01-15, 11:02 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by tom23 on 2013-01-15, 11:01 am

Toot, the image uploaded perfectly. However, what happens with all that moisture before it changes to snow?? It is rain, or mixed at best. Plus, one run is not enough conclusive evidence that temps won't be an issue.

I am predicting a mix at best. Nothing significant. That is my first call. I will update my call tomorrow morning after looking at tonights runs

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by VFL on 2013-01-15, 11:19 am

Lol, I'm glad our current system is not snow. Holly balls that would suck.
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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by windstorm on 2013-01-15, 11:44 am

I think as far as snow goes better put the big dog back inside, There are so many places to put weather suff at i don't know where to put anything. But i was going to say our local weatherman said he see NO COLD OR SNOW IN THE NEXT 14 DAYS. ?????????????? HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!! Does the models not show a outbreak somewhere around the 22nd to 24th for about the last week. If this hold true am firing him and takening over. Have a good one. Always a good day when you are above ground. Later dudes.. console
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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Jed33 on 2013-01-15, 12:07 pm

Lol, your local weatherman is either forecasting for cancun, mx or he's not using his brain. Next week, along about wed. Ask him again about the cold lol

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by snowdog on 2013-01-15, 2:28 pm

Not a good run of 12z models if you want the big dog barking.

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by VFL on 2013-01-15, 2:32 pm

snowdog wrote:Not a good run of 12z models if you want the big dog barking.

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

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