Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

by **snowdog** 2013-01-15, 12:12 am

00z Ukie doesn't agree with the NAM.

by **SEMonroeWx** 2013-01-15, 6:01 am

6z NAM still looks good for East TN

by **dahrkdaiz** 2013-01-15, 6:26 am

So other forums are pretty much "laughing" at the NAM's forecast. Would someone mind explaining why the NAM is considered unreliable/reliable in this situation? Or is this just something where some models are finally playing catch up now that this recent front has passed/is passing through.

by **Reb** 2013-01-15, 7:35 am

GFS holds its serve, meanwhile NAM gets our hopes up

**Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013** - Page 6 HVMHi

by **tom23** 2013-01-15, 8:41 am

I'm still not about to buy it... local mets and mrx are talking, at best, about a couple hours of a mix. No way we get anything out of a mix. Looks like the temps will be the issue here.

by **Toot** 2013-01-15, 8:55 am

dahrkdaiz wrote:So other forums are pretty much "laughing" at the NAM's forecast. Would someone mind explaining why the NAM is considered unreliable/reliable in this situation? Or is this just something where some models are finally playing catch up now that this recent front has passed/is passing through.

The nam tends to swing around wildly from run to run past 48 hrs..but its actually being pretty consistent right now. That said I wouldnt trust it!

Anyways..gotta like the trends in ensemble guidance this morning if you're in east TN

GFS ensembles hr 54 and 60
**Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013** - Page 6 F54

**Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013** - Page 6 F54

**Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013** - Page 6 F60

**Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013** - Page 6 6a00e55379bee888330133ecd68112970b-pi

by **Neals** 2013-01-15, 9:46 am

Accuweather is not showing any snow. WBIR has 30% wintry mix for Friday AM hours. I would love for them to get on board. They must see something that you guys can not.

by **tom23** 2013-01-15, 9:50 am

Neals wrote:Accuweather is not showing any snow. WBIR has 30% wintry mix for Friday AM hours. I would love for them to get on board. They must see something that you guys can not.

Temps will be the major issue here. Moisture won't be a problem IMO, but the temps will make it a mix most likely

by **Jed33** 2013-01-15, 9:58 am

12z NAM, I love you E TN and W NC! I don't know guys, it could be on to something. The gfs ensembles support it fwiw

by **OakRidgeWeatherGuy** 2013-01-15, 10:07 am

http://www.weatherstreet.com/CloudsPrecip.htm very interesting...take a look around 1pm on thursday...showing big snow in the state of tn!

by **snowdog** 2013-01-15, 10:18 am

Taking the NAM temps verbatim from the skew-t's, a lot of warmth to overcome in east TN. Not saying it can't be overcome, since ULL usually depend on dynamically driven cooling.

by **Toot** 2013-01-15, 10:19 am

Folks...the news channels and nws office around here pretty much have a policy of waiting to the last minute to call for snow. This is nothing new..they have operated for years this way. Being in the south this normally works out for them...but there is always a few times outta of the year it dont. This will likely be one of those times. This is one of the main benefits of reading a weather forum...you get to see the same raw data that they use and draw up your own opinion. The data that I see suggests a winter storm for us here in east TN. That said..I would be much more comfortable if the euro comes more on board with this today

by **Neals** 2013-01-15, 10:20 am

Jed33 wrote:12z NAM, I love you E TN and W NC! I don't know guys, it could be on to something. The gfs ensembles support it fwiw

Can you give me a link?

by **tom23** 2013-01-15, 10:30 am

snowdog wrote:Taking the NAM temps verbatim from the skew-t's, a lot of warmth to overcome in east TN. Not saying it can't be overcome, since ULL usually depend on dynamically driven cooling.

Yes, the temps will end up making the system a mixed bag of precip. I'm willing to bet on it.

by **Jed33** 2013-01-15, 10:39 am

Sorry neals, I'm using my phone for all this data, and despite being a smart phone, it's not a very big storer of data, and doesn't post images well. I can try to post later.

by **AndyP** 2013-01-15, 10:45 am

At this point, I am just happy that MRX is showing a 60 percent chance of rain/snow for my area Thursday into Thursday night. That leaves them the leeway to tinker with their forecast as Thursday gets closer.

by **snowdog** 2013-01-15, 10:51 am

Neals wrote:
Jed33 wrote:12z NAM, I love you E TN and W NC! I don't know guys, it could be on to something. The gfs ensembles support it fwiw

Can you give me a link?

LINK TO PSU EWALL SITE

by **Toot** 2013-01-15, 10:52 am

12z nam completely overcomes any warm temps

Attachments

: se.namptype12-20.gif You don't have permission to download attachments.(26 Kb) Downloaded 5 times

by **Toot** 2013-01-15, 10:56 am

I hope that image uploaded ok..im on my phone and dont normally post images from my phone

by **tom23** 2013-01-15, 11:01 am

Toot, the image uploaded perfectly. However, what happens with all that moisture before it changes to snow?? It is rain, or mixed at best. Plus, one run is not enough conclusive evidence that temps won't be an issue.

I am predicting a mix at best. Nothing significant. That is my first call. I will update my call tomorrow morning after looking at tonights runs

by **VFL** 2013-01-15, 11:19 am

Lol, I'm glad our current system is not snow. Holly balls that would suck.

by **windstorm** 2013-01-15, 11:44 am

I think as far as snow goes better put the big dog back inside, There are so many places to put weather suff at i don't know where to put anything. But i was going to say our local weatherman said he see NO COLD OR SNOW IN THE NEXT 14 DAYS. ?????????????? HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!! Does the models not show a outbreak somewhere around the 22nd to 24th for about the last week. If this hold true am firing him and takening over. Have a good one. Always a good day when you are above ground. Later dudes.. console

by **Jed33** 2013-01-15, 12:07 pm

Lol, your local weatherman is either forecasting for cancun, mx or he's not using his brain. Next week, along about wed. Ask him again about the cold lol