Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Low of 30 today. No snow. Sun out big time but that North wind has a little bit to it. Not bad, should make lower to mid 50's with lows tonight in the 20's.

Lol at the WRF for tomorrow night into Fri. It says winter will not give up without another fight. MRX not really buying it though. Guess we'll see. They don't buy very much any way though, lol

While the threat for a major winter storm in the eastern united states has dwindled over the past couple of days there is still not much in the way of sustained spring weather likely. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is once again forecast to go extremely negative with the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) also forecast to remain in the negative category.

This will likely mean more of the same (cooler weather with an occasional warm shot) but all this high latitude blocking tends to make storms deepen rather quickly. This will imply that the potential for strong winterlike storm systems are still there but the seasonal jet stream has lifted northward somewhat..meaning the genreral storm track will also move northward. This opens up the door for possible severe weather outbreaks especially as we get closer to and on into April.

For now I would enjoy the cool weather because it wont be long before we are talking about those dreaded subtropical death ridges from hell!! Meanwhile.. get out an extra blanket tonight because its gonna be a cold one for March standards. Here is a look at overnight nocturnal lows progged by the 4 kilometer NAM

There were a few flurries dancing around in downtown Nashville this morning. Very few, but they were there.

There were some who were calling for a very cold start to March. Looks like that verified.

We had snow flurries all day today. Strong winds and the temp stayed in the low 30s. Just an all around January kind of day instead of March.

Clouded back up a while ago and we're getting more light snow/flurries floating around out there.

Am I the only watching radar and low level temps? LOL

Nope, I see it Toot. MRX is not very optimistic, but I think we may in for a little surprise tnite, at least in some areas.

It's 36 and snowing in Crossville. Maybe that batch of moisture in Kentucky aiming this way will give us a dusting or so.

Unless it happened overnight, I didn't see any snow, or even flurries. Did anything fall up your way John?

My son had a PeeWee 7 little league scrimmage last night and it was cooold out there. Finished up the scrimmage with a light sleet falling. Beautiful outside today though. Warming up quickly.

Wow at the day 6/7 euro

It's shown snow for us 3-4 runs in a row now. 12z today was a major storm. Sub 1000mb low along the Gulf. Record breaking -ao.

Lol, WOW!!

GFS also has the sytem, a bit further north. Tracks it from Arkansas, across to off the SC coast.

John1122 wrote:It's shown snow for us 3-4 runs in a row now. 12z today was a major storm. Sub 1000mb low along the Gulf. Record breaking -ao.

The ensemble Arctic oscillation forecast is insane!

Clustered agreement below -5

GFS is creeping closer and closer.

And for good measure 30 hours after that last panel.

Round 1.

And round 2.

Euro still looks good from what I can see of it. Good temps and column moist from 700-850.

JKL inexplicably lying in their AFD this morning.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...AN INTERESTING SET UP
TAKES SHAPE AS SHORTWAVE OVER THE FRONT RANGE DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO
THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND A VIGOROUS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND
MOVES EAST NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP INTO KENTUCKY FROM THE
SOUTH. MODEL CONSISTENCY IS LOW AND DO NOT HANDLE THE SOLUTION FOR
THIS SET UP BUT WILL NEED MONITORED ON DEVELOPMENT IN THE MODELS.

The last sentence is, confusing, poorly worded and a lie. Model consistency is amazingly high right now with the Euro, GFS, and GGEM all very similar for multiple runs in a row. I'd be willing to wager they're not willing to mention what it actually shows due to the time of year it currently is.

1987 was the last time I remember a significant snow this late in the year. Got around a foot on April 2nd 1987

Meanwhile..The DGEX is having fun with areas north of I-40 statewide


This is the 0z euro ensemble control run