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Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

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Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by Toot on 2014-11-10, 8:53 am

( ( Weather pattern becoming primed for a couple of significant snow storms..possibly even a major one during the last two weeks of Novemeber ) )

Good morning..The remnants of Typhoon Nuri entered North Americas weather pattern as the strongest Mid Latitude low pressure system to EVER hit the north pacific! The energy from this system will be the catylyst that drives a very strong Arctic cold front through the eastern U.S

Meanwhile we are seeing a tall ridge in the jet stream developing out west and also one developing near Greenland. This is what we call in the weather world as a dual blocking signal. This will allow a piece of the tropospheric polar vortex to plunge southward into Canada and the eastern U.S

When you mix these ingredients with an active southern or subtropical jet stream you have the recipe for a classic winter storm in the eastern U.S. The Arctic front will begin to penetrate our area this coming wednesday.

After the Arctic air settles in for a few days the whole pattern becomes very mature and the threat of 2 to even 3 snow storms from Nov 15 through thanksgiving. The first system should form late this coming weekend into the first of next week. The reason this is significant is this is a pattern that you would possibly see in late December or January not the middle of November!!

Anyways if youre looking for snow be pateint..its coming and I have a feeling there is going to be some record breaking snow for some being its only Novemeber.





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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by Neals on 2014-11-10, 8:29 pm

Heck yeah!

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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by Toot on 2014-11-12, 2:55 pm

Snow storm #1 out of a series set to pound areas from the spine of the Appalachians and to the west of them Monday into Tuesday!!

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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by Neals on 2014-11-12, 5:09 pm

Toot, do you think it will hit south enough for our county?

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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by snowman72 on 2014-11-12, 6:29 pm

Toot, I have yet to hear any local met call for snow , are they seeing something that we are not? I see what you see. Plus they keep raising the temps.

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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by Neals on 2014-11-12, 10:19 pm

I hate fantasy snow season. It starts off and you think you got a good chance to cash in. Then you lose some temp degrees. Next your moisture just isn't there no more. Then before you know it there isn't a single set of parallel lines left and polar vertex is gone.

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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by Toot on 2014-11-13, 6:41 am

snowman72 wrote:Toot,  I have yet to hear any local met call for snow , are they seeing something that we are not? I see what you see. Plus they keep raising the temps.
I dont pay attention to local TV mets...they get paid to look pretty and be calm..lol I suggest u do the same
beer

Neals wrote:I hate fantasy snow season. It starts off and you think you got a good chance to cash in. Then you lose some temp degrees. Next your moisture just isn't there no more. Then before you know it there isn't a single set of parallel lines left and polar vertex is gone.
There is nothing fantasy about this..im expecting snow but not a whole lot..just not the perfect setup for us. Also...the polar vortex is NEVER gone..it always exists

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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by VFL on 2014-11-13, 3:59 pm

Apps runner. Western Valley and mountians might see some flakes. Cold air chasing moisture type systems suck. Not much with this system. NAO going almost positive toward the end of the month will warm things back up. Will need to watch for Tstorms. Hopefully this will reload in to December and Greenland block will get back in the action.
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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by Toot on 2014-11-13, 7:36 pm

Not an apps runner...models just having trouble with the various storm centers..the key is when the coastal one takes over..if it takes over soon enough u can see what could happen per gfs ensembles
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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by Toot on 2014-11-13, 7:38 pm

And the NAO will follow the AO...this is a perfect apttern for snow especially for november..ive already got eleven inches for the season..lmao

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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by Toot on 2014-11-14, 1:20 am

snow accums from midnight run of gfs..not much in the valley as its still november but higher elevations and mid to west tn may get in on some significant accums if the GFS is correct. Nam much further north which would be all rain for most everyone

complicated pattern tho..so I still expect some changes

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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-11-14, 12:53 pm

It's good to be back....if you live from west to middle tn, north of I40 to Nashville ne into Kentucky it may be the heaviest zone for accum. Looks like 1-3 maybe some 2-4... It will shift some who knows how far north and east! Tonight will know for sure..... Later


Last edited by Jscentraltn on 2014-11-14, 12:58 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : It didn't post whole statement.)

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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by Toot on 2014-11-16, 7:41 pm

Meso models are really laying it to yje OH vallew..wow

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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by VFL on 2014-11-17, 2:15 pm

Looking at a possible severe weather outbreak next weekend. A high sheer low cape event IMO. Typical fall type system.
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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-11-17, 7:18 pm

I'm looking past that! May be a good snow storm close if not in our area the week of thanksgiving.. It will warm going into the weekend, but is not going to last. I ended up with about 1/2 inch this morning.. Setting at 21 degrees right now... Got a new wood stove so let winter set in for good Smile

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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by Toot on 2014-11-18, 2:36 pm

Yeah Im weary of any lakes cutter storms right now..if the models show that I dont buy it just yet

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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by Toot on 2014-11-20, 8:38 pm

Watch the thanksgiving time frame Nov 26-29...something unusual is brewing..and u can write that down in ur lil black book

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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by etnwx on 2014-11-20, 9:29 pm

Toot wrote:Watch the thanksgiving time frame Nov 26-29...something unusual is brewing..and u can write that down in ur lil black book

Any hints? cyclops

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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by fire rescue87 on 2014-11-20, 11:36 pm

Toot, I didn't know we still used books! Guess I will wait and see what you post on facebook.
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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by Neals on 2014-11-21, 7:06 am

Me too!

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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by windstorm on 2014-11-21, 2:25 pm

This looks colder to me than what our local weathermen are forecasting for day after Thanksgiving. http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/6e/gfs_850_6e.gif
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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-11-21, 7:30 pm

It is hard to tell! It will be cold... The models are still struggling to pick up which system it will be. The GFS es is showing wed- thur a system coming down out of Canada and phasing with a system out of the south!!!! It could be interesting!!!! I'm ready. Smile

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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by windstorm on 2014-11-21, 10:09 pm

me too..
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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-11-22, 9:20 am

Looking at the euro it is showing a poss east coast storm.. With a clipper coming right in behind it.... Be nice if they could phase! Later this weekend the models should get a better handle on it.

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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-11-22, 1:36 pm

Needs to come west a lot more before we get any action!!!! I can see it coming further West with time. Time will tell... I hate this part though. sneaky

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