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Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

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Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Toot on 2014-02-08, 3:48 pm

The only model that is not on board for this seems to be the GFS. The NAM for now two runs in row just cripples most of the state with a classic southern slider/Miller A! Very unpredictable pattern that we are in so anything could really happen here from nothing to over a foot of snow! Alot will depend on exact surface low track


Last edited by Toot on 2014-02-12, 12:34 pm; edited 2 times in total

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-02-08, 4:28 pm

I know man! I've looked at this and kinda breaks my heart. This happened back early in 2000. At my house it was cold and sunny but about 50 to 60 miles to my south got hammered. Iam talking 8 to as much as 13". Will be a tough call! Euro looked a little further south.

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-02-08, 4:50 pm

Just looked at the gem and the euro again! I'm hoping this thing can jog about 40 to 50 miles north. But the models all show about the same area getting pounded. Of course i40 south state wide.

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by VFL on 2014-02-08, 4:52 pm

Seriously MRX? The GFS is most consistent?

"LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO FORM ON THE GULF COAST...AND THEN
PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK. ECMWF AND NAM ARE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE CWA...WITH GFS
AND SREF KEEPING MAIN CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP AND SNOW ACCUMULATION
TO SOUTHEASTERN TN AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. GFS SEEMS TO BE
THE MOST CONSISTENT BETWEEN MODEL RUNS...WITH ADDITIONAL MODELS
ALIGNING TO THE GFS OUTPUT. HAVE GONE WITH THE GFS FOR NOW."
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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by windstorm on 2014-02-08, 5:17 pm

From early today we were looking at 5 plus inches. Looks like they are backing down on the snowfall to around 3 to 4. Most likely the time it gets here if it does it will be rain. But NWS talks about watching this system and may have to add a WSW OR WSW. Who knows anymore. Be nice to get one good one before winter is gone.
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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Neals on 2014-02-08, 8:17 pm

I love it! bring it on.

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-02-08, 9:36 pm

Toot! Make 3 in row for the nam.

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Neals on 2014-02-09, 7:43 am

Do you guys see anything new worth mentioning with this storm system? Thanks!

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Neals on 2014-02-09, 7:45 am

Just for fun. Do you guys think I should go get some bread, milk, and beer? I live on the Tenn/NC border.

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-02-09, 8:36 am

To be honest it is hard to say! I never have bought in to the go stock up on things anyway. I enjoy driving in the snow even if I get stuck. But the problem is if it does hit the stores are empty. But as far as the storm the nam has went with the gfs. Went further south! I can't say this is right I would say tonight there should be enough confidence to say take a road trip or not!
 brrrm! 

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2014-02-09, 10:08 am

 beer i think the 12z runs of the gfs and euro today will drive the final nail n the coffin for most of tennessee folks today... trends not good... bring me severe weather season soon plz... i have been really working very hard on my severe knowledge hard this off season, ready to put them to the test...

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Toot on 2014-02-09, 11:21 am

I think this one is gonna be a big deal..especially I-40 and south. Precip with gulf lows is pretty much a given to be much further north than modeled.  wash 

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Toot on 2014-02-09, 1:08 pm

New canadian model is big hit for east TN!!

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by connerconner on 2014-02-09, 2:33 pm

Toot wrote:New canadian model is big hit for east TN!!

has that been pretty reliable this year? Disappointed by the latest nam runs, hopefully they'll come back around to the canadian

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Toot on 2014-02-09, 3:13 pm

connerconner wrote:

has that been pretty reliable this year? Disappointed by the latest nam runs, hopefully they'll come back around to the canadian
The Canadian has been pretty good this year with winter storms..there have been many times where it had the right idea while the gfs didnt. Anyways the latest euro is in too..another decent hit for east TN. Will post graphics in a few

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by VFL on 2014-02-09, 3:15 pm

Euro baby

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-02-09, 4:36 pm

Wow! That new run of the euro has came way east with the precip the 0z run had just about all of tn under at least 5" of snow. Just looked at the NAM it is showing something different the last 2 runs. I still think this thing will still endup further north and west with the precip. I have seen it to many times this winter. But if not bring the
 torch 

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by VFL on 2014-02-09, 5:16 pm

GFS has came in North and West. It's getting closer to putting us in the game.
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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Toot on 2014-02-09, 6:05 pm

18zNAM

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by connerconner on 2014-02-09, 6:10 pm

Toot wrote:18zNAM

just a little farther NW come on storm.. That being said, I do like the trends of the 18z NAM and GFS

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by VFL on 2014-02-09, 7:10 pm

Can't believe how slow this board is.
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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Neals on 2014-02-09, 7:24 pm

VFL wrote:Can't believe how slow this board is.

I know! Best chance the valley and smokies have had in a while!

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by VFL on 2014-02-09, 7:35 pm

NAM is about to run. Very interested in this one.
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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-02-09, 7:48 pm

These systems have been all around me this year. 40 to 50 miles to the north,south,east and west. Just can't get it. If the trend continues I may end up o.k. But if not I'm on vacation this week and may just take a trip over to gatlinburg.

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by connerconner on 2014-02-09, 8:08 pm

guys, is it happening? We might be in business

https://twitter.com/TWCNews_CLTWX/status/432671221025472512/photo/1

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

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