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Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Pman1618 on 2014-02-10, 8:18 am

Even for middle tennessee?

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Toot on 2014-02-10, 8:31 am

Pman1618 wrote:Even for middle tennessee?
Probably would be a sharp cut off around the western edge of the plateau but if the euro is correct winter wx advisories may be needed even further west. Meanwhile the 6z GFS finally caved to the other models. Here is the 6zNAM and the 0z euro





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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-02-10, 9:54 am

It looks like the 12z NAM and the 06z GFS are in the same boat now! Very tricky forecast. I can see it either way. Off the coast or up the coast? Smile

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Toot on 2014-02-10, 10:00 am

From MRX


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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Eduardo on 2014-02-10, 10:08 am

MRX is all in...now if Matt Hinkin says it...look out!!! lol!

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Toot on 2014-02-10, 10:17 am

Its off to work for me..but here is the 0z Canadian which looks most accurate to my eye

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Jed33 on 2014-02-10, 11:28 am

I'm hoping for the best with this system, but it has me nevrous as can be. The 12Z NAM looks terrible and barely clips the far eastern valley. We went from a board wide crush at 0z to a Middle and East crush at 6z to a few flurries at 12Z lol. The GFS is trending back in the right direction. I just wish for once we could be sitting where NC is they can't loose!

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-02-10, 11:31 am

Jb has a good write up about what the models are doing. NAM,GFS. He said that any model that is shifting east is suspect. Also he still thinks the euro is right.

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-02-10, 11:36 am

He said that the nam is weaker and further south and east. The reason is that it is trying to break down the ridge. But they won't know until this energy that is coming though today and tonight is out of the way.

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by windstorm on 2014-02-10, 12:07 pm

NC should be a sweet spot for snow. I never seen so many flip flops on forecasting snow as i have seen in the last day or two down here in Chatta. They got burn two weeks ago. I think they need some nerve pills
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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by VFL on 2014-02-10, 12:27 pm

Need some GFS eye candy please.
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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by VFL on 2014-02-10, 1:56 pm

It's boner time!!!!

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by connerconner on 2014-02-10, 2:01 pm

VFL wrote:It's boner time!!!!

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omg! I was depressed when I saw the 12z nam, but now I'm all in again.. What model is this?

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by VFL on 2014-02-10, 2:09 pm

Euro baby!!!!
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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by underdawg45 on 2014-02-10, 2:13 pm

Hell ya. I just started a puppy thread by the way for you VFL

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-02-10, 2:19 pm

Now only if it can come west some! That's for me I don't like gray it shows only 1 1/2" for me! You guys over east enjoy! I think this is close to the out come.

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by VFL on 2014-02-10, 2:29 pm

You temp guys, how far will the warm nose make it up the valley as of now?
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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-02-10, 2:31 pm

Some of the short range models are bringing the precip shield further west! I hope this trend continues. Maybe it will look good for me tonight. Smile

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-02-10, 2:36 pm

As far as the warm nose and temps you guys will be fine. The system will wrap up enough to keep the cold there even if it is above freezing it will still snow.

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Ballcoach on 2014-02-10, 2:42 pm

I just don't understand. Our weather channel forecast shows 39 and rain showers here in knoxville area. Upon the new euro release, they removed all traces of snow from the outlook. How are they not jumping on this at this point?

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by VFL on 2014-02-10, 2:56 pm

Will be very interesting seeing what MRX does here in a min. We're inside watch time frame criteria and it's close on snow totals.
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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by OakRidgeWeatherGuy on 2014-02-10, 3:58 pm

MRX is not making any sense at all. Nor are their forecast even matching up. They just issued a SWS saying 1-4 inches for the valley. But they have this image uploaded on their page
..
this graphic shows 4 to 6 inches for Knoxville..
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mrx/

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by VFL on 2014-02-10, 4:07 pm

That prediction map has been up most of the day.
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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by jeffmac99 on 2014-02-10, 4:15 pm

In reading the MRX update it sounds like they believe this will start out as rain and then transitioins to snow "quickly"...but temperatures in some parts may be an issue.

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-02-10, 4:28 pm

The 18z NAM said no one but the mountains get snow out of this. still way east with its track.

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

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