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March 5-6th Winter Storm

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March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Jed33 on 2013-02-28, 11:51 am

With the Euro having shown a pretty decent hit for Middle and parts of E TN, and now the 12z GFS showing some support for this, I think it's time to create a thread for this potential. Here's hoping we can capitalize on one more snow event before spring! rock on

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by snowdog on 2013-02-28, 12:42 pm

12z Ukie was close to something very good as well.

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by ballpark on 2013-02-28, 1:42 pm

Can anyone show the 12z Euro.

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Jed33 on 2013-02-28, 2:34 pm

Only someone that pays could get you the data. I'm sure Toot will come in later on this evening and post it for us. At least I hope he will. lol, I'm just going off what I've heard at the other boards, as to what the maps look like. Sounds like both the GFS and Euro are giving better trends than has been the case. Still sounds like the further E you are the better off you'll be at this stage, but the models have been shifting further S and W with the last few runs. I think this Euro gives Middle TN about a dusting to an inch, increasing to a couple inches in E TN. I know text output for Knox. is 0.53 in but 2m temps are slightly above freezing, and 850's crash below 0 during the event, meaning a rain to snow scenario, but still maybe a couple inches. TRI gets .45qpf, most of which is snow. Sorry, I can't help more with the Middle TN data. Maybe Mundie or Snowdog could help better for now, till we can get a map.

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Jed33 on 2013-02-28, 5:43 pm

18z GFS looks slightly better than 12z. Even getting over cclose to Bruce there in W TN and DW in NW TN!
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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-02-28, 8:18 pm

Jed33 wrote:18z GFS looks slightly better than 12z. Even getting over cclose to Bruce there in W TN and DW in NW TN!

I was not going to mention that this has similarities to the famous 09 west Tn snow. Did not want to jinx us. Boy that would be a good way to end the winter. popcorn

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Toot on 2013-02-28, 9:04 pm

LOL..Im still scratching my head from the progged track of this system. The weather bell euro snowfall graphic doesnt correspond well with the other graphics so I may post some euro slp/precip graphics here in a sec

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Reb on 2013-02-28, 9:05 pm

dooo itttt

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Toot on 2013-02-28, 9:34 pm

Reb wrote:dooo itttt
Posted in the members section

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by ballpark on 2013-03-01, 12:03 am

0Z Run was not good for Snow. Lets hope the Euro is better.

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Jed33 on 2013-03-01, 7:14 am

No consistency here for this storm. 0z not that good, Euro jumps 500mi N, 06z GFS ok again, lol. Just like Robert Gamble (foothills) has been saying, models are going to be showing wild solutions right now. I wouldn't put too much stock in any one run for now.

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Vanster67 on 2013-03-01, 8:55 am

Gee only 500 miles north? LOL! glad the Latest GFS op run is better and of course were still quite a few days out
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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-03-01, 10:43 am

Still a lot of uncertainty but this has a chance to be big for someone in Tn IMO.

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-03-01, 11:09 am

Hmmmm


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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Grandpa Nasty on 2013-03-01, 2:06 pm

Dyersburg Weather wrote:Hmmmm

That looks ok for middle and west TN but too warm east for snow. if that verified maybe low could wrap some cold back into all areas and have sustained snow for awhile.

I'm still hanging out on the fence for these systems until we're within a couple of days.

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-03-01, 8:27 pm

The poss storm is still in the pac ocean. Until it comes ashore the models will not do well so you can't take any run that comes in. Maybe sat evening or sun morning runs will be close to what will happen! The gfs and the euro have the low placement close to the same location off the virg coast wed??? We need it to drop further south and west for me to get anything decent from it snow wise! We will see!!!!!!!! sneaky

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-03-01, 8:40 pm

The models watching will be fun the next couple of days. I really believe this has a chance to be a big surprise.
Latest from KPAH

THE MORE INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST IS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
EVENING...WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
OR MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIABILITY
CONCERNING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE. THE 12Z GFS IS
CERTAINLY THE SNOWIEST SOLUTION OF THE 12Z MODEL SUITE. THE 12Z GFS
TRACKS A RATHER STRONG AND COMPACT 500 MB LOW SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TUESDAY. THIS MODEL RUN BRINGS ENOUGH
COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW FOR MAINLY SNOW ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ABOUT HALF OF THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION.

ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE OTHER HALF OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A SOMEWHAT WEAKER AND MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF
THE 500 MB LOW. THIS SOLUTION SUGGESTS MILDER TEMPS AND CONSIDERABLY
LESS QPF. GIVEN THE HIGH MODEL VARIABILITY...THE BEST COURSE OF
ACTION IS TO INTRODUCE SNOW BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY. POPS
WILL BE KEPT IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY ON TUESDAY...SINCE THE MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK INDICATED BY THE ECMWF WOULD MEAN LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP.

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-03-01, 9:13 pm

That will be the key! I do hope for the more southern road b-4 it takes it's turn east. This is our last chance for a snowstorm! After this spring is coming!!! club

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Toot on 2013-03-01, 9:22 pm

I will be up late for the 0z run of the euro tonight. This could be a big boy storm! brrrm!

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by John1122 on 2013-03-01, 10:25 pm

Channel 8 substitute Met said he thinks Monday night into Tuesday has the best chance for snow all season.

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-03-01, 11:09 pm

Congrats boys in the east. What a beauty. Sucks to be me. rfl


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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Toot on 2013-03-01, 11:10 pm

0z GFS is a bowling ball ULL from hell!!

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-03-01, 11:14 pm

Toot wrote:0z GFS is a bowling ball ULL from hell!!

Beat you to it. lol

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Toot on 2013-03-01, 11:17 pm

Dyersburg Weather wrote:

Beat you to it. lol
Lol..you sure did..I went into anaphylactic shock after seeing it. It took me a while to come back to my senses lmao

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-03-01, 11:28 pm

I have not been over there but I bet American Weather has melted the server. lmao

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

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