WRF cast
Satellite Loop
Current Watches
Current Snow Cover
Conus Radar
Regional Radar
Tennessee Radar
SE RADAR
Enlarge
24 hr Temp change
Current MDs
Regional Temps
Conus Temps
Current CPC NAO and forecast
Top posters
Toot (6644)
 
Stovepipe (4148)
 
Adam2014 (1424)
 
tennessee storm09 (1302)
 
Jed33 (930)
 
windstorm (891)
 
John1122 (885)
 
snowdog (855)
 
Homemommy (824)
 
WxFreak (812)
 


March 5-6th Winter Storm

Page 3 of 8 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8  Next

View previous topic View next topic Go down

Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Toot on 2013-03-02, 11:28 pm

Lol..this is enough to make me sick..100 miles to my north and east is going to get clobbered with a possible dusting here
lol! facepalm

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-03-02, 11:42 pm

Yeah! It sucks. like you said the runs in the morning may be better I really wanted this to play out for us! I have had about 3/4 in of snow all winter. This was the last chance for the season! smoke

_________________
REMEMBER!!!!!! The day when man and dinasouar walked the earth together..... In the beginning things were good!
avatar
Jscentraltn
Admin

Posts : 703
Join date : 2013-01-19
Age : 39
Location : Cheatham county

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by connerconner on 2013-03-03, 1:23 am

Welp guys.... The 00z went SUPER SOUTH.. looks like we're back in the ballgame!


connerconner
Founding Member

Posts : 46
Join date : 2012-01-12

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by John1122 on 2013-03-03, 1:27 am

That definitely puts North Carolina in a good spot.

John1122
Winter Specialist

Posts : 885
Join date : 2011-12-06
Location : Campbell Co

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Toot on 2013-03-03, 2:07 am

We are just in a not so good spot where a transfer of energy takes place at the surface. The Euro definately looks better for east TN but this is a tricky system and one that I havent had any kind of track experience with. It will be very interesting to see how it plays out

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by connerconner on 2013-03-03, 2:09 am


connerconner
Founding Member

Posts : 46
Join date : 2012-01-12

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Coach B on 2013-03-03, 8:17 am

Boy, that map hates middle TN. Smile Look at that 90 degree bend in accums just to avoid the Nashville area.

Coach B
Founding Member

Posts : 45
Join date : 2012-02-19
Location : Marshall County

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by weathertree4u on 2013-03-03, 9:13 am

Coach B wrote:Boy, that map hates middle TN. Smile Look at that 90 degree bend in accums just to avoid the Nashville area.

One of these years we will be in the bullseye, just like the Winters from childhood of the late 1970's where we had snow on the ground reliably every Winter; I am over this Winter though, onto Spring 2013 - then we can start discussing patterns for the 2013/2014 Winter Season Smile

weathertree4u
Member

Posts : 14
Join date : 2013-02-08
Age : 46
Location : Cottontown TN

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Toot on 2013-03-03, 9:40 am

If the euro and its ensembles are correct I think parts of TN may be in the ballgame here with the deformation band.

Notice the deform band getting well south into parts of western/middle TN..it scoots across most of the state like this




_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Big and wet flakes for NE TN?

Post by Grandpa Nasty on 2013-03-03, 3:14 pm

Well damn. I just logged in on my phone and no updates. Word around here from a few good sources says Chattanooga area looks like temps wayyyy too warm, prob mid 50s but NE of Knoxville could be borderline with either heavy rain or big, fat, juicy snow flakes coming. Down with as much as 6 inches of wet snow before melting off in 24 hours or so.


down at about a 5 to 1 ratios with thunder and lightning.

_________________
Sincerely from the filthy one,


Grandpa Nasty (formerly Uncle Nasty)
avatar
Grandpa Nasty
Founding Member

Posts : 189
Join date : 2012-01-09
Location : Chattanooga, TN

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by John1122 on 2013-03-03, 5:15 pm

Wow at my afternoon updated forecast for Tuesday night/Wednesday

Tuesday Night Snow showers. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 28. West wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Wednesday Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

80% Thundersnow I can handle!

John1122
Winter Specialist

Posts : 885
Join date : 2011-12-06
Location : Campbell Co

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Toot on 2013-03-03, 7:29 pm

I would have to agree with the MRX afd..light accums could be a good bet Plateau and east/I-40 and North.

MRX
Code:
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN THE LAPSE RATES. CAPES OF 100-150 J/KG
WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING
SLOWLY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITATION WILL
QUICKLY CHANGED TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING. ALONG WITH THE
INSTABILITY...INCREASING NORTHWEST BOUNDARLY LAYER FLOW WILL
PRODUCE GOOD OROGRAPHIC/NORTHWEST FLOW SNOWFALL INTO THE MOUNTAINS
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DIMINISHING WEDENSDAY NIGHT.

HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...SUCH AS
HIGH KNOB. A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS.
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY ALSO
PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE PLATEAU...SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by connerconner on 2013-03-03, 9:34 pm

latest nam!


connerconner
Founding Member

Posts : 46
Join date : 2012-01-12

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by dahrkdaiz on 2013-03-03, 9:48 pm

I hate to be optimistic, I do remember the last ULL that we got, the NAM was the big winner on that one.

dahrkdaiz
Member

Posts : 27
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 34
Location : West Knoxville

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by John1122 on 2013-03-04, 2:12 am

Models went pretty far North tonight. We still get some backside snow but it doesn't bomb NC/VA quite like before.

John1122
Winter Specialist

Posts : 885
Join date : 2011-12-06
Location : Campbell Co

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Snowflake on 2013-03-04, 8:10 am

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. John, looks like you're under a Winter Storm Watch at this point.
avatar
Snowflake
Member

Posts : 26
Join date : 2012-10-24
Location : Oak Ridge, TN

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by SnowManiac on 2013-03-04, 10:29 am

Has anyone seen the 12z nam today?? It looks further west than the 0z run does. And don't worry about the north trend shown on the gfs. DT says that this is due to a fake piece of energy being pulled up from the low that hits the blocking mechanism in place, and causes the LP to scoot further northward. Because it is fake, it will not happen that way.

SnowManiac
Member

Posts : 1
Join date : 2013-02-27

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Jed33 on 2013-03-04, 1:08 pm

Latest WRF looks better than I thought it would actually. Shows a fair amount of light snow wraping around. Guess we'll have to wait and see.

Jed33
Admin

Posts : 930
Join date : 2011-12-09
Location : Morristown, TN

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by John1122 on 2013-03-04, 3:38 pm

I hope the heavy snow reaches down to me. The forecast for me says heavy snow possible all day Wednesday. But also mentions the above 2500 feet, which is a bit above me.

John1122
Winter Specialist

Posts : 885
Join date : 2011-12-06
Location : Campbell Co

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by John1122 on 2013-03-04, 4:04 pm

In the afternoon update MRX said they were leaving the WSW up as there was a chance the Plateau would get warning level snow, but that they'd likely only issue a WWA.

John1122
Winter Specialist

Posts : 885
Join date : 2011-12-06
Location : Campbell Co

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by John1122 on 2013-03-04, 4:09 pm

Updated forecast.

Tuesday Night: Rain showers or snow showers in the evening... Then snow showers after midnight. Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible...especially over the higher elevations. Lows in the upper 20s. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.

Wednesday: Cloudy with snow showers likely. Brisk. Additional snow accumulation possible. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Northwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 60 percent.

John1122
Winter Specialist

Posts : 885
Join date : 2011-12-06
Location : Campbell Co

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Toot on 2013-03-04, 7:59 pm

I personally think this event will over perform here in northern parts of east TN and especially in the higher elevations. It just has backlashed look to it.


It certainly wouldnt surprise me to see a couple inches even here in the northern valley

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by John1122 on 2013-03-04, 8:26 pm

I expect a winter storm warning for the Eastern Mtns and SWVA above 2500 feet for 3-8 inches. A WWA for the Plateau and counties that border Virginia for 1-4. Probably an SPS for the rest for 1/2-2 inches.

John1122
Winter Specialist

Posts : 885
Join date : 2011-12-06
Location : Campbell Co

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Toot on 2013-03-04, 8:37 pm

Some nice looking graphics from the NAM tonight brrrm!

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Jed33 on 2013-03-04, 8:43 pm

I think we could see a little bit here too Toot. This is certainly a weird system. I saw on amwx where the huge atlantic storm is pulling moisture somehow off the Pacific today. Dont think ive ever seen anything like that before. Also makes me wondwr if this is what has screwed up the blocking that we have in the Atlantic.

Jed33
Admin

Posts : 930
Join date : 2011-12-09
Location : Morristown, TN

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 3 of 8 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8  Next

View previous topic View next topic Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum