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March 5-6th Winter Storm

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Grandpa Nasty on 2013-03-01, 11:36 pm

Tooter, I'm on my phone @ work and can't get the maps to load fast enough. From reading your post it sounds like it looks good atm. Where was the low placement and what were the temp profiles for N Ga and se TN? Won't be able to see anything until I get home

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Toot on 2013-03-01, 11:48 pm

Grandpa Nasty wrote:Tooter, I'm on my phone @ work and can't get the maps to load fast enough. From reading your post it sounds like it looks good atm. Where was the low placement and what were the temp profiles for N Ga and se TN? Won't be able to see anything until I get home
It would be heavy snow for most of east TN..dynamic cooling would quickly win out from the snow growth levels down to the surface. Thundersnow would most definately occur somewhere if that particular run verifies. Still a ways to go with this one tho as the shortwave trough has yet to come onshore out west.


Last edited by Toot on 2013-03-02, 12:20 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by jmundie on 2013-03-01, 11:59 pm

Toot - is there some sort of reorganization going on when the ULL is over BNA. As you can see on the accum map, the precip disappears, then blows up again over y'all.


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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Toot on 2013-03-02, 12:10 am

jmundie wrote:Toot - is there some sort of reorganization going on when the ULL is over BNA. As you can see on the accum map, the precip disappears, then blows up again over y'all.

The ULL/SW goes from neutral tilt (West/Mid TN) to a negative tilt (over Chattanooga). It goes from 2 to about 4 contours being closed off

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Reb on 2013-03-02, 12:21 am

Anyway the apps help slow it down and funnel a quicker phase?

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Toot on 2013-03-02, 12:31 am

Not much phasing going on..compact and intense bowling ball of an upper level low but the Apps no doubt slow things down a little.

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Jed33 on 2013-03-02, 7:05 am

The Euro, I hear, wasn't as good to us as the GFS, but still showed a little bit in E TN. NC was the big winner on it. 6z GFS had a weaker low moving through that reduced the precip field, and was more like previous runs. I.d say we will just have to wait and see where this ULL goes, bc it will be along and just N of it where the heaviest snow will fall. I.d think with the -nao block, the further south and west solution would be right. I guess time will tell.

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-03-02, 10:33 am

Lets hope for it to come further south. But I can see how it still goes further north if the blocking up north weakens and moves a little further east. The models tonight should let us know for sure for our area if it is rain or snow or both. The energy will be coming down from the Dakota's Monday. Then where it goes from there who knows????

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Jed33 on 2013-03-02, 1:52 pm

12z Euro. Looks pretty good to me!
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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Toot on 2013-03-02, 2:01 pm

Latest run (12z) of the European model is something not seen in the eastern US in many years. Its a massive late season powerhouse winter storm! Very mature and negatively tilted upper level low that closes off five (Count them) contours. Snowfall records will likely fall in the southern Appalachian and Mid Atlantic regions if this model is anywhere near correct!

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Reb on 2013-03-02, 2:01 pm

toot can you get us the snow map for the 12z euro? looks promising

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Toot on 2013-03-02, 2:05 pm

Reb wrote:toot can you get us the snow map for the 12z euro? looks promising

They have not finished updating but they havent been corresponding well at all with upper level graphics.

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-03-02, 2:10 pm

Toot do you think it will have any impact on the midstate? Or will it be to Far East and to far north for us here? I know you guys up east may get some action I can't tell as far as middle! Thanks

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-03-02, 2:17 pm

Like I said yesterday I think NC and VIRG get hammered the euro and gfs both have been consistent with the placement for them but the path it takes to get there is key I can't tell the impact for midstate my forecast for Monday and Tuesday call for rain and a high of 61?

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Toot on 2013-03-02, 2:39 pm

The further north and east you are the better you will do with this one. I can see some light accumulations in mid TN but TRI will likely be the big winner as far as the state of Tennessee goes. This thing has the potential to be a monster though..and im not sure we have seen the correct solution progged yet. So things can surely change quickly with this

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Adam2014 on 2013-03-02, 2:41 pm

Yep Toot is right... I will wait around and watch if it comes further south, but it looks like this will slide just to my North.

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Toot on 2013-03-02, 2:47 pm

I stole this from DT but I think totals could be a little underdone in NE TN

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Jed33 on 2013-03-02, 4:29 pm

12z euro mean
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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by connerconner on 2013-03-02, 4:37 pm

Jed33 wrote:12z euro mean

Good lord, that would be close to 20:1 ratios if that verified.

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-03-02, 5:17 pm

New gfs run came in further north! What I feared the blocking is not going to be as strong to force this thing further south! But I am still holding on for hope for later runs. If no improvement by later tonight or tomm morning. Spring is here folks! popcorn

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by connerconner on 2013-03-02, 10:29 pm

Heard the latest NAM was a good run for E TN... Can anyone confirm?

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-03-02, 11:20 pm

It's not great!!!!! Even the new gfs run looks about the same. It has some wrap around snow but this looks to pound virg it stalls out there just off the coast! May euro run show something good for us! sneaky

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Toot on 2013-03-02, 11:21 pm

connerconner wrote:Heard the latest NAM was a good run for E TN... Can anyone confirm?
I wouldnt call it a good run for east TN but its better than the last run. The GFS isnt much better..looks like the shortwave will be well sampled by 12z tomorrow..so still time for better/worse trends

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-03-02, 11:24 pm

Sorry toot! We where typing at same time I think! Lol. Very Happy

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-03-02, 11:28 pm

Toot, did the 12z GFS look goofy to you ? The low starts in Okla. , goes down in Texas , then takes a left through Ark. and Kentucky all the way to WV and then turns right through NC. WTF

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

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