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March 5-6th Winter Storm

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by connerconner on 2013-03-04, 8:54 pm

Think I may take Wednesday off and head up to Cataloochee.. How much of the QPF will fall as snow at 4000ft?

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by joereb1 on 2013-03-04, 8:55 pm

It looks like I might get a 1/2" or so here in South Knoxville. What do you guys think at this point?

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Reb on 2013-03-04, 9:37 pm

Someone post 0z nam accum map

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Toot on 2013-03-04, 9:48 pm

connerconner wrote:Think I may take Wednesday off and head up to Cataloochee.. How much of the QPF will fall as snow at 4000ft?
I seen the 18z 4km nam produce near 20 inches of snow along the highest elevations of the smokies

joereb1 wrote:It looks like I might get a 1/2" or so here in South Knoxville. What do you guys think at this point?
Possible

Reb wrote:Someone post 0z nam accum map
Wxbell has crashed tonight uh oh

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-03-04, 9:48 pm

To my eye , the 0z NAM was the best looking run for TN in a couple of days.

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Toot on 2013-03-04, 10:16 pm

Dyersburg Weather wrote:To my eye , the 0z NAM was the best looking run for TN in a couple of days.
Indeed..the snowfall graphic dont reflect it but the rest of the data looks pretty sexy here in east TN

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by John1122 on 2013-03-04, 10:23 pm

Yeah, not much precip on there when the cold arrives per NAM, 1-2 on the Plateau, 3-6 in the mountains on the snow map.

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Toot on 2013-03-04, 10:32 pm

0z nam sim radar






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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by ballpark on 2013-03-04, 10:35 pm

It needs to slide another 50 miles futher South.

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by snowman72 on 2013-03-04, 10:57 pm

I received 2.5" of snow Saturday. I will try and post pics. I hope to see more of the same tomorrow night into Wed.

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Neals on 2013-03-04, 11:16 pm

Toot wrote:
Dyersburg Weather wrote:To my eye , the 0z NAM was the best looking run for TN in a couple of days.
Indeed..the snowfall graphic dont reflect it but the rest of the data looks pretty sexy here in east TN
In my nonexpert opinon Suspect it does look like it matches a lot of the potstir potstir characteristics of the things we need to take place to get a decent snow here in east tenn mountains. lmao

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Toot on 2013-03-05, 12:38 am

Normally..I dont quote Joe Bastardi but I like this one..lol lol!

Remember the NAO is king Feb 15-Apr 15... And a king aint satisfied till he rules everything

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by John1122 on 2013-03-05, 4:10 am

MRX went warning for the mountains, then punted to dayshift for my area and SWVA.

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Reb on 2013-03-05, 5:07 am

wow sounds amazing
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TODAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PUSH IN BEHIND
THE FRONT...AND AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS...AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.


WINTER STORM WARNINGS...WATCHES AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. FOR
MORE DETAILS...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS FROM
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ACCUMULATING SNOW CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...FOLLOWED BY A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

THUS...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by John1122 on 2013-03-05, 6:05 am

Plateau

Tonight: Rain showers or snow showers in the evening...then snow showers after midnight. Breezy. Snow accumulation 1 to 3 inches. Lows around 30. West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.

Wednesday: Cloudy. Snow showers likely in the morning and early afternoon...then a chance of snow showers or a slight chance of rain showers late in the afternoon. Brisk. Snow accumulation up to 2 inches. Total snow accumulation 2 to 4 inches...locally higher amounts possible. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to around 40 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.


Last edited by John1122 on 2013-03-05, 6:10 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by John1122 on 2013-03-05, 6:08 am

Central Valley.

Tonight: Rain showers or snow showers in the evening...then snow showers after midnight. Breezy. Snow accumulation up to 2 inches. Lows in the lower 30s. West winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 35 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.

Wednesday: Cloudy. Snow showers likely in the morning and early afternoon...then a chance of snow showers or rain showers late in the afternoon. Brisk...colder. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch. Total snow accumulation up to 3 inches. Highs in the upper 30s. Northwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 35 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by John1122 on 2013-03-05, 6:10 am

Northern Valley.

Tonight: Rain showers or snow showers until early morning... Then snow showers. Breezy. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch. Lows around 30. West winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.

Wednesday: Cloudy with snow showers likely. Brisk...colder. Snow accumulation up to 2 inches. Total snow accumulation up to 3 inches. Highs in the upper 30s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to around 35 mph. Chance of snow 60 percent.

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by John1122 on 2013-03-05, 6:11 am

Southern Valley

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Rain showers likely until early morning. Snow showers likely after midnight. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch. Lows in the lower to middle 30s. West winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Brisk...colder. A chance of snow showers in the morning and early afternoon. A slight chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 40s. Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by John1122 on 2013-03-05, 6:12 am

Mountains

Tonight: Rain showers or snow showers in the evening...then snow showers after midnight. Windy. Snow accumulation 1 to 4 inches. Lows in the upper teens to lower 30s. West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to around 45 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.

Wednesday: Snow showers in the morning and early afternoon... Then snow showers likely or a chance of rain showers late in the afternoon. Windy...colder. Snow accumulation 1 to 4 inches. Total snow accumulation 2 to 8 inches...with locally heavier amounts possible in the highest elevations. Highs in the mid 20s to upper 30s. Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to around 45 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by John1122 on 2013-03-05, 6:16 am

Those are the zone forecasts written by MRX mets. The point forecasts you get by clicking a specific area are computer generated forecasts. They will show far less snow generally than the actual Met written forecast.

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by John1122 on 2013-03-05, 6:16 am


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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by John1122 on 2013-03-05, 6:18 am

OHX said they'd likely issue WWA for their eastern CWA next shift.

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by John1122 on 2013-03-05, 6:20 am

Getting heavy rain/thunder right now.

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Reb on 2013-03-05, 6:56 am

apparently snow accumulations up to 3 inches doesnt warrant an advisory


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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

Post by Jed33 on 2013-03-05, 7:16 am

Yeah Reb, I saw that too. Their AFD and zone forecasts dont match, as they dont even mention the valley hardly at all in the AFD. Instead, they are stressing out about whether or not the plateau and sw VA can get 4in or to just keep them an advisory, lol. It's almost like there are 2 different forecasts, an AFD and a zone. That way, they can't go wrong, lol.Come on MRX which is it, lol.

WRF this AM, even gets W TN! Middle TN is actually the winner according to it, TRI doesn't get as much on it!

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Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

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