Re: March 5-6th Winter Storm

by **connerconner** 2013-03-04, 8:54 pm

Think I may take Wednesday off and head up to Cataloochee.. How much of the QPF will fall as snow at 4000ft?

by **joereb1** 2013-03-04, 8:55 pm

It looks like I might get a 1/2" or so here in South Knoxville. What do you guys think at this point?

by **Reb** 2013-03-04, 9:37 pm

Someone post 0z nam accum map

by **Toot** 2013-03-04, 9:48 pm

connerconner wrote:Think I may take Wednesday off and head up to Cataloochee.. How much of the QPF will fall as snow at 4000ft?

I seen the 18z 4km nam produce near 20 inches of snow along the highest elevations of the smokies

joereb1 wrote:It looks like I might get a 1/2" or so here in South Knoxville. What do you guys think at this point?

Possible

Reb wrote:Someone post 0z nam accum map

Wxbell has crashed tonight uh oh

by **Dyersburg Weather** 2013-03-04, 9:48 pm

To my eye , the 0z NAM was the best looking run for TN in a couple of days.

by **Toot** 2013-03-04, 10:16 pm

Dyersburg Weather wrote:To my eye , the 0z NAM was the best looking run for TN in a couple of days.

Indeed..the snowfall graphic dont reflect it but the rest of the data looks pretty sexy here in east TN

by **John1122** 2013-03-04, 10:23 pm

Yeah, not much precip on there when the cold arrives per NAM, 1-2 on the Plateau, 3-6 in the mountains on the snow map.

by **Toot** 2013-03-04, 10:32 pm

0z nam sim radar

March 5-6th Winter Storm - Page 4 NAM_221_2013030500_F33_CREF_SURFACE

March 5-6th Winter Storm - Page 4 NAM_221_2013030500_F36_CREF_SURFACE

March 5-6th Winter Storm - Page 4 NAM_221_2013030500_F39_CREF_SURFACE

March 5-6th Winter Storm - Page 4 NAM_221_2013030500_F42_CREF_SURFACE

by **ballpark** 2013-03-04, 10:35 pm

It needs to slide another 50 miles futher South.

by **snowman72** 2013-03-04, 10:57 pm

I received 2.5" of snow Saturday. I will try and post pics. I hope to see more of the same tomorrow night into Wed.

by **Neals** 2013-03-04, 11:16 pm

Toot wrote:
Dyersburg Weather wrote:To my eye , the 0z NAM was the best looking run for TN in a couple of days.
Indeed..the snowfall graphic dont reflect it but the rest of the data looks pretty sexy here in east TN

In my nonexpert opinon Suspect

it does look like it matches a lot of the potstir

characteristics of the things we need to take place to get a decent snow here in east tenn mountains. lmao

by **Toot** 2013-03-05, 12:38 am

Normally..I dont quote Joe Bastardi but I like this one..lol lol!

Remember the NAO is king Feb 15-Apr 15... And a king aint satisfied till he rules everything

by **John1122** 2013-03-05, 4:10 am

MRX went warning for the mountains, then punted to dayshift for my area and SWVA.

by **Reb** 2013-03-05, 5:07 am

wow sounds amazing

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TODAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PUSH IN BEHIND
THE FRONT...AND AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS...AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS...WATCHES AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. FOR
MORE DETAILS...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS FROM
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ACCUMULATING SNOW CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...FOLLOWED BY A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

THUS...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

by **John1122** 2013-03-05, 6:05 am

Plateau

Tonight: Rain showers or snow showers in the evening...then snow showers after midnight. Breezy. Snow accumulation 1 to 3 inches. Lows around 30. West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.

Wednesday: Cloudy. Snow showers likely in the morning and early afternoon...then a chance of snow showers or a slight chance of rain showers late in the afternoon. Brisk. Snow accumulation up to 2 inches. Total snow accumulation 2 to 4 inches...locally higher amounts possible. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to around 40 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

by **John1122** 2013-03-05, 6:08 am

Central Valley.

Tonight: Rain showers or snow showers in the evening...then snow showers after midnight. Breezy. Snow accumulation up to 2 inches. Lows in the lower 30s. West winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 35 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.

Wednesday: Cloudy. Snow showers likely in the morning and early afternoon...then a chance of snow showers or rain showers late in the afternoon. Brisk...colder. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch. Total snow accumulation up to 3 inches. Highs in the upper 30s. Northwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 35 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

by **John1122** 2013-03-05, 6:10 am

Northern Valley.

Tonight: Rain showers or snow showers until early morning... Then snow showers. Breezy. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch. Lows around 30. West winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.

Wednesday: Cloudy with snow showers likely. Brisk...colder. Snow accumulation up to 2 inches. Total snow accumulation up to 3 inches. Highs in the upper 30s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to around 35 mph. Chance of snow 60 percent.

by **John1122** 2013-03-05, 6:11 am

Southern Valley

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Rain showers likely until early morning. Snow showers likely after midnight. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch. Lows in the lower to middle 30s. West winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Brisk...colder. A chance of snow showers in the morning and early afternoon. A slight chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 40s. Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

by **John1122** 2013-03-05, 6:12 am

Mountains

Tonight: Rain showers or snow showers in the evening...then snow showers after midnight. Windy. Snow accumulation 1 to 4 inches. Lows in the upper teens to lower 30s. West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to around 45 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.

Wednesday: Snow showers in the morning and early afternoon... Then snow showers likely or a chance of rain showers late in the afternoon. Windy...colder. Snow accumulation 1 to 4 inches. Total snow accumulation 2 to 8 inches...with locally heavier amounts possible in the highest elevations. Highs in the mid 20s to upper 30s. Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to around 45 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.

by **John1122** 2013-03-05, 6:16 am

Those are the zone forecasts written by MRX mets. The point forecasts you get by clicking a specific area are computer generated forecasts. They will show far less snow generally than the actual Met written forecast.

by **John1122** 2013-03-05, 6:16 am

by **John1122** 2013-03-05, 6:18 am

OHX said they'd likely issue WWA for their eastern CWA next shift.

by **John1122** 2013-03-05, 6:20 am

Getting heavy rain/thunder right now.

by **Reb** 2013-03-05, 6:56 am

apparently snow accumulations up to 3 inches doesnt warrant an advisory

March 5-6th Winter Storm - Page 4 Face_palm

by **Jed33** 2013-03-05, 7:16 am

Yeah Reb, I saw that too. Their AFD and zone forecasts dont match, as they dont even mention the valley hardly at all in the AFD. Instead, they are stressing out about whether or not the plateau and sw VA can get 4in or to just keep them an advisory, lol. It's almost like there are 2 different forecasts, an AFD and a zone. That way, they can't go wrong, lol.Come on MRX which is it, lol.

WRF this AM, even gets W TN! Middle TN is actually the winner according to it, TRI doesn't get as much on it!

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