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Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-11-22, 1:50 pm

12z euro for wed!!!! This is the closest it gets for now...

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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-11-22, 1:56 pm


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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by Toot on 2014-11-22, 3:54 pm

Jscentraltn your images are not showing up..anyways here is my thoughts so far...



As expected guidance models trending west with thanksgiving snow!!

There is a huge amount of smaller scale details to work out (phasing...storm strength..snow amounts..duration etc etc..) concerning this system but each run of trusted guidance models since mid day yesterday continues to shift westward with said snow storm. I expect more trending west over the next 24 hrs before a solution is settled upon.

As with just about any winter type gulf or east coast low pressure system there is almost always a north/westward trend. And past climatology will also argue for the same. So with that in mind and knowing guidance model bias here is what I think about the chances of a significant snow (more than 3") during the Thanksgiving timeframe.


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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by Neals on 2014-11-22, 4:11 pm

That looks good, toot. I don't look at the models but from what I experienced the last couple years, it looks spot on with northwest flow.


Last edited by Neals on 2014-11-22, 10:10 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by Neals on 2014-11-22, 4:16 pm

It usually snows more and later than suggested with that setup in my area.



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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by etnwx on 2014-11-22, 4:25 pm

Hey Toot, my daughter is coming down from the Detroit area on Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, and will return Sunday afternoon. Do have even a rough estimation when the heart of the storm will hit? Thanks.

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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by VFL on 2014-11-23, 6:08 pm

This is a legit threat but I'd feel much better if we can get the system to shif another 75 or so miles west. If it phases we might see that shift. It would also wrap some more cold air in the system.
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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by Toot on 2014-11-24, 9:07 am

Id say the heart of the storm will be wednesday evening about dark..gonna be a sharp cutoff in accumulations just east of the plateau it looks like. Mountains and counties along the NC border look to take it on the chin with less totals as you go west

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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by snowman72 on 2014-11-24, 9:34 am

Looks like I might see some of the white stuff here in walland.

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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by VFL on 2014-11-24, 9:38 am

Temps are borderline, better get some high precip rates.
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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by Toot on 2014-11-24, 6:08 pm

There will be no temperature problems in TN..may even be an all snow event and not even start as rain! The issue is how far west the precip shield gets. This is a classic setup for a mod to heavy snow for us

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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by Toot on 2014-11-24, 6:09 pm

There will be no temperature problems in TN..may even be an all snow event and not even start as rain! The issue is how far west the precip shield gets. This is a classic setup for a mod to heavy snow for us

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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-11-24, 7:23 pm

LWere I'm at, my only hope for any snow would be from the clipper that follows it up... No complaints from me though. season is just starting..... Smile


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?

Post by realdeal2414 on 2014-11-24, 8:34 pm

Toot wrote:There will be no temperature problems in TN..may even be an all snow event and not even start as rain! The issue is how far west the precip shield gets. This is a classic setup for a  mod to heavy snow for us



Toot you say that it will be all snow in TN, I'm in tri cities area and they are giving rain. What is chances we get snow in NE TN?

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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by Math/Met on 2014-11-24, 10:43 pm

The NAM shows rain changing over to a period of heavy snow for KTRI. We'll see if the other 0z models agree.

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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by realdeal2414 on 2014-11-25, 12:18 am

You got a time frame on this math? Thanks

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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by VFL on 2014-11-25, 8:30 am

Temps will be a problem outside of 2k feet and up. Maybe a few flakes on the end of the system but Knoxville is gonna be shutout.
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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by Toot on 2014-11-25, 8:44 am

VFL wrote:Temps will be a problem outside of 2k feet and up. Maybe a few flakes on the end of the system but Knoxville is gonna be shutout.
Are you talking about surface temps?

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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by VFL on 2014-11-25, 10:28 am

Yes Toot. Now your neck of the woods might be good to go but JMO, anything under 1500-2k ft will be rain. Like I said though this is my opinion.
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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by Math/Met on 2014-11-25, 11:32 am

IF the 4km NAM verifies, then this would be significant snow rates for KTRI. The thermal profile in this sounding also suggests that it would produce large snowflakes with this event, which would have a better chance of surviving warmer temperatures near the surface. This model actually drops the surface temperature to 0C for a few hours.



Obviously, other models show less precipitation and warmer temperatures at the lower levels.  However, I’m not ready to throw out the NAM just yet. There are several legitimate reasons that it COULD potentially have a better handle on this dynamic cooling situation.

From MRX:
WILL BE AN INTERESTING SCENARIO
FOR TONIGHT AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD AND WARM ADVECTION
COMPETES WITH DYNAMIC COOLING FOR PRECIP TYPE.

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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by Toot on 2014-11-25, 12:22 pm

This will be an all snow event for 2500 ft and above and will change over very quickly from the northern valley and move southward. Ive seen this play out too many times to count. The further north and east u are the better u will do. Winter storm watches should be issued for the mtns and northern valley if they havent been

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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by underdawg45 on 2014-11-25, 1:16 pm

Toot
Are you going to put out a map of possible snow totals

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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by Math/Met on 2014-11-25, 3:21 pm

Well, the 18z NAM increased precipitation totals again.

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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by Toot on 2014-11-25, 4:30 pm

Whole thing slowing down and phasing earlier and going neg tilt on top of us. Gonna be a nice one!! I will do accumulation graphics about dark.

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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

Post by VFL on 2014-11-25, 6:09 pm

If it's phasing early, that changes the whole game. That's why I felt like we where out of the game.
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Re: Significant snows possible last two weeks of November

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