Re: Bruce's severe wx playhouse

by **jmundie** 2012-01-17, 8:43 pm

Yeah - OHX was jumping the gun a bit due tithe radar being down, I'd imagine.

I was quite literally directly under the rotation on the Davidson county cell, and actually the exact words I used to my wife, stove, we're "weak sauce".

Maybe a 40 mph gust and a quick downpour.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-01, 7:37 pm

nice thunderstorm cells have been brewing out of se arkansas and north miss close to memphis tis evening... kind of suprise to be honest with you to see some of the cells get tornado warnings, cause the lack of wind shear... but it got around 70 here today and plenty of sunshine late this afternoon got the atmosphere a little unstable enough to get some minor high rotation cells going south of memphis... but it is winding down pretty fast now... i am really looking forward to a big spring severe season... its going to be balls to the walls fun rock on

by **Toot** 2012-02-02, 8:04 am

That looked alot like an MCS yesterday that went through the mid south. Those usually occur around here in a summer pattern facepalm

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-02, 8:31 pm

Toot wrote:That looked alot like an MCS yesterday that went through the mid south. Those usually occur around here in a summer pattern

yes sir, you are absoulutely correct on that, looked more like a summer time mcs.

by **Toot** 2012-02-03, 10:39 pm

Bruce's severe wx playhouse - Page 2 Day2otlk_1730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2012

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD FROM KS INTO MO THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET MAX FROM OK INTO THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY AT 00Z. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
EWD ACROSS SRN MO DURING THE DAY THEN INTO KY AND TN BY EVENING. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SRN MO ACROSS CNTRL AR AND
SWEEPING SWD ALONG THE TX COAST BY MIDDAY...CONTINUING EWD INTO AL
BY 12Z SUNDAY. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL PROVE SUFFICIENT
FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS SRN MO...AR...AND INTO
ERN TX IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM ADVECTION.
THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT LIKELY TO BE SEVERE. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY...SO WILL SHEAR...MAINLY NRN
AREAS. LITTLE HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS WILL
INTENSIFY. A FEW STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY THUS OCCUR FROM
SERN TX NEWD TO THE WARM FRONT ALONG THE WY/TN BORDER.

FARTHER W INTO CNTRL/SRN TX...THE FAST MOVING NATURE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY UNDERCUT ANY DEVELOPMENT WHICH SHOULD REMAIN
NON SEVERE WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW.

..JEWELL.. 02/03/2012

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-03, 10:43 pm

Toot wrote:

..JEWELL.. 02/03/2012

Nice. I didn't know she was a weather buff.

Bruce's severe wx playhouse - Page 2 Xftbpx

by **Toot** 2012-02-03, 10:45 pm

by **Toot** 2012-02-03, 10:58 pm

xcept Joe lundberg the mets at hackuweather are horrible hypsters but their images are cool and accurate sometimes
Bruce's severe wx playhouse - Page 2 400x266_02032101_plainsfrintsat

Bruce's severe wx playhouse - Page 2 400x266_02032101_plainsfrintsat

by **Toot** 2012-02-03, 11:02 pm

Frank Str8 is gr8 alsoz

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-03, 11:10 pm

does look like we will get a break in between showers in the mid late afternoon, with the warm sector cooming through early in the morning... should get enough lift and instability to get a severe storm or two. mainly a line late afternoon or early evening. wind hail threat, main issues

by **Toot** 2012-02-03, 11:51 pm

Nasty line knocking on West TN'z door

Bruce's severe wx playhouse - Page 2 Regional%20Radar

Bruze can haz severe?

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-03, 11:53 pm

Toot wrote:Nasty line knox=cking on West TN'z door

Bruze can haz severe?

I can haz speil check?

by **Toot** 2012-02-04, 12:00 am

Lolz Fixed Stovez

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-04, 12:06 am

Toot wrote:Nasty line knocking on West TN'z door

Bruze can haz severe?

bring that line home to daddy toot, damn, this jack n coke is kicking my ass tonight. rock on

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-06, 6:41 pm

i got my eye out around 16th 18th like i said for a big storm system, what will it be,not so sure at this point of course... could be a big winter storm, a boat load of rain, or a bigtime severe weather outbreak... and with the lack of any blocking, i have my suspision... i am going tolook at tonights 0z really hard tonight... should be getting in the euro range by tonight also... i kno its a little out there still, but the gfs has had this thing on last few runs... were getting close to climo wise were storm systems are going to start to get more dynamic lift to work with... lots of energy on the board folks.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-06, 6:49 pm

Tell us what you see specifically Bruce. I'm interested in learning what to look for.

by **Adam2014** 2012-02-06, 7:00 pm

I think he is seeing that it is a big system and it is far out. It could trend anywhere at this point.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-06, 7:08 pm

Stovepipe wrote:Tell us what you see specifically Bruce. I'm interested in learning what to look for.

no problem stove... course nothing set in stone yet...first off you got nice southerly flow coming up from the gom... look at your trough, its negatively tilted coming down out of the southern plains. also trough looks to be pretty broad vs a sharp deep trough... thats telling me it has nice directional wind shear to work with. a sharper trouhg has more forcing which allows the storm to mainly line out... another thing got my attentiion is a 1004 mb over southern mo on that run. and it deepens as it heads ne.... you want the lp to your nw of you for a classic thunderstom setup. on the 18z run. the low isnt to far to the nw of us, so the warm sector may be in question how far north it can go to get us in the warm and high dp, which makes it more unsatble to work with. nice look on the 18zgfs run to be honest with you... any way i can help stove just shoot me a question buddy... as we get closer to severe systems this spring i will help you, i will go in more detail on the deeper stuff.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-09, 6:28 pm

Am I reading that right, did 18z end on a severe note?

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-09, 7:04 pm

Stovepipe wrote:Am I reading that right, did 18z end on a severe note?

i think you are learning stove, yeppers it sure did..

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-09, 7:05 pm

Huzzah!

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-18, 7:18 am

the euro has a mean system in the 216 hr range... i will be keeping eye on that bad boy. if it holds , details later

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-18, 8:21 pm

wow, after studying the latest gfs... it looks like its fixing to get stormy folks... not talking bout winter storms either...west look just down right troghy, while the east is building a nice ridge look to it... that would be in the medium range. this would allow us to get into a nice rich gulf flow from the south... i just hope this holds... climo wise says this is looking plausable... especially this winter... no blocking what so ever on that run, whats new... if you like severe weather, fun times may lay ahead my friends. wash

by **jmundie** 2012-02-18, 8:37 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:wow, after studying the latest gfs... it looks like its fixing to get stormy folks... not talking bout winter storms either...west look just down right troghy, while the east is building a nice ridge look to it... that would be in the medium range. this would allow us to get into a nice rich gulf flow from the south... i just hope this holds... climo wise says this is looking plausable... especially this winter... no blocking what so ever on that run, whats new... if you like severe weather, fun times may lay ahead my friends.

Are we looking at the same gfs? Looks like two big cold shots in the next 12 days, then after that it has been back and forth the last couple runs.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-18, 8:51 pm

jmundie wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:wow, after studying the latest gfs... it looks like its fixing to get stormy folks... not talking bout winter storms either...west look just down right troghy, while the east is building a nice ridge look to it... that would be in the medium range. this would allow us to get into a nice rich gulf flow from the south... i just hope this holds... climo wise says this is looking plausable... especially this winter... no blocking what so ever on that run, whats new... if you like severe weather, fun times may lay ahead my friends.

Are we looking at the same gfs? Looks like two big cold shots in the next 12 days, then after that it has been back and forth the last couple runs.

i guess i should have been more specific on time mundie, your right on a cold shot or two in the shorter range... its the medium to longer range time frame... course we see how trends from here

by Sponsored content