Snow Potential Late December

by **Stovepipe** 2011-12-19, 9:08 am

With the GFS showing this several runs in a row, the DGEX bombing out, and the Euro sort of on board it's time we dedicated a thread to this possible snow event.

Some eye candy to get things started:

Snow Potential Late December 29p2oeq

[img][/img][img][/img]

Snow Potential Late December Eta.totsnow192

by **snowdog** 2011-12-19, 10:15 am

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:Well...the gfs has ensemble and canadian model support this morning so it looks like we officially have something to track.

I'll put this here since we have an official thread. I'm not seeing much if any GFS ensemble support and there is zero canadian ensemble support. Am I missing something?

by **Stovepipe** 2011-12-19, 10:33 am

Snow Potential Late December Gfs_servicealimentairegordon

Is rolling.

(since Reb isn't around I took the liberty of posting his pic)

by **Toot** 2011-12-19, 10:41 am

snowdog wrote:
Cyclonicjunkie wrote:Well...the gfs has ensemble and canadian model support this morning so it looks like we officially have something to track.

I'll put this here since we have an official thread. I'm not seeing much if any GFS ensemble support and there is zero canadian ensemble support. Am I missing something?

i disagree snowdog..the ensembles have the same system to some degree...and the 0z cmc also showed a very similar setup

by **tennessee storm09** 2011-12-19, 10:48 am

i know that kjan, ohx, meg and even klzk out of little rock is mentioning winter type precip towards xmas or after.

by **Toot** 2011-12-19, 11:11 am

Im on my phone and I havent got used to posting images yet but the 0z cmc looks alot similar to the to the 0z gfs at about 168....but the nice thing about this forum is you can disagree with the admin and there is no problems....lol Very Happy

by **snowdog** 2011-12-19, 11:22 am

0z CMC looks like rain with some backside flurries. Where are you looking at the OP CMC past 144 hours? I know Ewall has the 0z to 240.

by **snowdog** 2011-12-19, 11:27 am

So others can see and comment. Below is the 00z GFS ensembles. Basically the OP is the most aggressive. The theme seems to be, if there is precip the temps are marginal at best vs colder with no precip or very light.

at 168

Here is 174hr

by **tennessee storm09** 2011-12-19, 11:30 am

snowdog wrote:0z CMC looks like rain with some backside flurries. Where are you looking at the OP CMC past 144 hours? I know Ewall has the 0z to 240.

actually the 0z cmc last night supported snow on the northern fringe of the precip... if im reading the columns temps right.

by **Stovepipe** 2011-12-19, 11:44 am

12z GFS says Carolina Special.

by **Reb** 2011-12-19, 11:45 am

GFS way south this run. no precip in tennessee. snow in AL,GA,SC,NC,VA

6z was also south of 0z which was the ETN special.

I'm not at all worried. I am in fact pretty happy with the way this is playing out on the models. You don't want to be in the bulls-eye right now and the fact that its still showing the storm is huge

by **Toot** 2011-12-19, 11:51 am

snowdog....i was talking about the 6z ensembles but even they were nowhere near perfect agreement..but a few had the same general idea...keep in mind the op haz better resolution and will handle cyclogenesis better....still a few days to watch this one

by **Toot** 2011-12-19, 11:53 am

Oh yeah and ewall was were I seen the cmc past 144

by **Toot** 2011-12-19, 11:58 am

Reb wrote:GFS way south this run. no precip in tennessee. snow in AL,GA,SC,NC,VA

6z was also south of 0z which was the ETN special.

I'm not at all worried. I am in fact pretty happy with the way this is playing out on the models. You don't want to be in the bulls-eye right now and the fact that its still showing the storm is huge

the big question to me is does this take the classic miller a track or is it further se...that also seems to b what the models are trying to sort out

by **skillsweather** 2011-12-19, 12:38 pm

Reb wrote:GFS way south this run. no precip in tennessee. snow in AL,GA,SC,NC,VA

6z was also south of 0z which was the ETN special.

I'm not at all worried. I am in fact pretty happy with the way this is playing out on the models. You don't want to be in the bulls-eye right now and the fact that its still showing the storm is huge

I can actually see this happen. Past 2 years all the big storms have been south and east and west and north of middle Tennessee so this is the way I see this playing out. I really really hope it dont but I cant take all these models going back and forth.. I WANT SNOW..... gaah

by **Stovepipe** 2011-12-19, 12:44 pm

by **Southeastbutter** 2011-12-19, 1:44 pm

Is it true that the models have "temporarily" lost the storm?? I haven't been around today to look.

by **Stovepipe** 2011-12-19, 1:57 pm

The storm is still there, it's just suppressed to the south. Lots of time for things to change for better or worse.

by **Adam2014** 2011-12-19, 5:47 pm

Storm is still suppressed, we need some northwest trend my friends! smartass

by **Toot** 2011-12-19, 7:10 pm

Its really close to something nice for east TN...a slight NW shift and we are in buisness here (but dont want a drastic NW shift)...even if this 18z graphic were to verify the precip shield is likely underdid and would be more north and west as that is the case with most lows that take this track...it happened with every single gulf type low last winter.
Snow Potential Late December 2gyc421

I definately am super excited with this system...Its somewhat of a Miller A and those favor the eastern part of the state

by **Adam2014** 2011-12-19, 7:42 pm

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:Its really close to something nice for east TN...a slight NW shift and we are in buisness here (but dont want a drastic NW shift)...even if this 18z graphic were to verify the precip shield is likely underdid and would be more north and west as that is the case with most lows that take this track...it happened with every single gulf type low last winter.

I definately am super excited with this system...Its somewhat of a Miller A and those favor the eastern part of the state

I would fear the drastic NW shift if I were you too, I need some shifting to the northwest also.

by **Toot** 2011-12-19, 7:58 pm

Adam2014 wrote:I would fear the drastic NW shift if I were you too, I need some shifting to the northwest also.

I really like it were it is right now...because I think there will be somewhat of a nw shift..anyways still a few days to watch....gonna be interesting smoke

by **Adam2014** 2011-12-19, 7:58 pm

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:
Adam2014 wrote:I would fear the drastic NW shift if I were you too, I need some shifting to the northwest also.

I really like it were it is right now...because I think there will be somewhat of a nw shift..anyways still a few days to watch....gonna be interesting

Okay someone really needs to join me in the chat room lol.