Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

by **John1122** 2013-01-24, 4:05 pm

What I just saw on channel 8 is exactly why the whole advisory system is just stupid.

Because the winter storm watch was cancelled the news people asked the met basically "So, since the winter storm warning stuff is gone that mean's this event is downgraded and not as bad right?"

He had to explain to them that it's still the same event that the Winter Storm Watch was for and travel would still be extremely dangerous if there was .10-.25 ice on the roads.

But I personally know people who will take it just like those reporters and will not plan accordingly for extremely bad conditions.

by **John1122** 2013-01-24, 4:08 pm

Jed33 wrote:Lol, they don't get into this kind of situation enough to forecast it. I bet if you took some guys out of MEG (Memphis) and gave them this data, the forecast would look different. That said, maybe it wouldn't, John is right, there are so many micro-climates around here, it's difficult to forecast it right. I've just seen too many ice storms from living over in W TN and N MS to know that when it's below freezing or just barely above, and you have a dp of 1 degree, that if you get precip to fall into that layer, you have evap. cooling that kicks into HIGH gear. It's extremely difficult to overcome that kinda cooling with WAA and a low that's as weak as what's being progged. Also, I would think that bc the valleys around here are way deeper than over there, that there would be more low level cold air trapped over here, resulting in more pro-longed freezing precip. Just my opinion though.

That's why I posted last night about knowing your area in East Tennessee being as important as anything they forecast. I know that traditionally, because I live in an area with great cold air drainage and the fact that the above freezing layer isn't going below 2000 feet per MRX, it's unlikely that I ever get above freezing as long as the precip rate is above drizzle.

by **John1122** 2013-01-24, 4:25 pm

You have to laugh at WFO reasoning. Nashville says that the Plateau and NE sections of their CWA will probably get Ice Storm Warning criteria ice but that because the system is moving fast they think the advisory is fine.

by **tom23** 2013-01-24, 4:56 pm

What does everyone think about traveling from Jeff City to Morristown at around 7:30 tomorrow?? I have a class at 8 up here at WSCC, and I will be going back home at around 12

by **VFL** 2013-01-24, 5:04 pm

tom23 wrote:What does everyone think about traveling from Jeff City to Morristown at around 7:30 tomorrow?? I have a class at 8 up here at WSCC, and I will be going back home at around 12

You may get there, may not get home though. I would not but that's JMO.

by **Jed33** 2013-01-24, 5:06 pm

Might want to get a zamboni!

by **tom23** 2013-01-24, 5:08 pm

Jed33 wrote:Might want to get a zamboni!

But Jed! I'd rather have one of these fine things!! brrrm!

by **Toot** 2013-01-24, 5:42 pm

Its fun to watch all the forecasters chase their tails with this system. One minute..its the southern valley that will see the most ice...the next minute they show the latest high res model saying the northern areas will get the most ice accumulation. I dont know why they just dont pick a forecast and stick with it. I mean is it really a forecast if it keeps changing by the hour? Sounds more like mass confusion if you ask me!

by **AndyP** 2013-01-24, 5:54 pm

Hope everyone stays safe tomorrow. As for us here in Erwin, I really have NO CLUE what to expect. One minute its several inches of snow, then its ice. Oh well. I guess we will just take it as we get it.

by **Jed33** 2013-01-24, 5:56 pm

Down to 25 now, after a high of 32. This dry air is allowing temps to fall quick now as the sun goes down.

Whats your thoughts Toot? Any late adjustments?

by **SEMonroeWx** 2013-01-24, 6:15 pm

Does anyone see MRX upgrading to an Ice Storm Warning? Just seems like their accum totals are too low.

by **Toot** 2013-01-24, 6:26 pm

Jed33 wrote:

Whats your thoughts Toot? Any late adjustments?

Same as before..sleet-ice/snow line could possibly use an adjustment a hair northward but its not a big enough shift to warrant a forecast change because its still within the models tolerance for error. Unfortunately I think we will see at least .30 inches of ice here in Morristown. Im charging all my electronic gadgets tonight as im afraid of power outages. Ive got a gas fireplace to keep me warm and a mandolin to keep myself entertained if the worse case scenario of loss of internet access is verified..lol

by **1234snow** 2013-01-24, 6:43 pm

Right now temp is 25 with a dewpoint of 3! Dewpoint are very low right now across all of Tennessee. There should be a fair amount of virga at the start of the event tomorrow morning but dewpoints should rise throughout the event. This will lead to evaporational cooling at the start, so I think everyone has a shot of seeing a brief period of snow/sleet before the switch over to freezing rain. The warm nose looks like it will push further northeast than it looked yesterday so even KTRI may get in on the freezing rain. As we all know it it only takes .05 of freezing rain to cause havoc on the roads, so this is a serious situation even without the huge QPF amounts. Power outages could be a concern for those who get .25+ of freezing rain, but QPF may not be high enough for significant power outages.

by **1234snow** 2013-01-24, 6:46 pm

Ground/soil temps are cold enough too after this cold snap this week, so everything should stick/freeze pretty easily unless on treated roads.

by **Jed33** 2013-01-24, 7:09 pm

Yeah, Toot, thats what im afraid of. I got an extra propane cylinder, and my in hround gas tank is good, so i'll be alright. Wish it was snow, oh well

by **Toot** 2013-01-24, 7:19 pm

1234snow wrote: There should be a fair amount of virga at the start of the event tomorrow morning but dewpoints should rise throughout the event. This will lead to evaporational cooling at the start, so I think everyone has a shot of seeing a brief period of snow/sleet before the switch over to freezing rain.

This could be the saving grace that keeps ice accums to min in many places. I sure hope so!

by **Toot** 2013-01-24, 7:25 pm

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
443 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013

VALID 00Z FRI JAN 25 2013 - 00Z MON JAN 28 2013

...UPPER MS VLY/GREAT LAKES TO APPALACHIANS/MID-ATL STATES...

A PROGRESSIVE SEMI-SPLIT FLOW SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE ERN THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY ON FRI OR FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VLYS TO OFF THE ERN SEABOARD BY SAT MORNING. THE DOMINANT NWRLY TRAJECTORY/JET WILL ALLOW TWO ITEMS... KEEP THE COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS ENTRENCHED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE REGION WHILE EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND NOT ALLOWING MUCH MOISTURE CONTENT TO RETURN NORTH INTO THE COLD SECTOR. THIS SYSTEM THOUGH DOES APPEAR TO BE A BIT STRONGER AND MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR HEAVIER AND LOCALIZED FROZEN PRECIP. THE LARGEST CONCERN IS THE MID-LEVEL WARMING OVERRUNNING INTO THE SHALLOW DENSE AIR MASS AND THE LIKELY FREEZING RAIN FROM NRN AR/SRN MO THIS EVENING TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS. THE GUIDANCE IS REALLY PINPOINTING SIGNIFICANT ICING ACCUMULATIONS OVER ERN TN/EXTREME SERN KY AND SWRN NC/EXTREME NRN GA. THIS IS WHERE POSSIBLE .25 INCH ICING HAS A MDT CHANCE... WHILE LIGHTER ICING/SOME SLEET AND SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE SPREADING OUT ACROSS UPSTATE SC AND MUCH OF NC. MEANWHILE... A STREAK OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NERN MN/NRN WI DOWN TO WV/WRN PA AND INTO THE DELMARVA AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL/LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS APPEARS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE 500MB VORT TRACK AND AROUND LAKES SUPERIOR/MI WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE. LIKE THE PREVIOUS QUICK MOVING IMPULSE EXPECT GENERALLY MINIMAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS... 2 TO 4 UP AND AROUND THE UPR MS VLY/GREAT LAKES INTO THE ERN OH VLY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH UP TO AN INCH EAST OFF THE APPALACHIANS IN THE MID-ATL STATES. THERE COULD BE SOME SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF ACCUMULATIONS OVER SRN/SERN VA AND NRN NC... AS THE TWO STREAMS POSSIBLY BETTER INTERACT/PHASE FOR POSSIBLE ENHANCED UVVS AND DYNAMIC COOLING BEFORE MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST TMRW EVENING INTO SAT MORNING. HPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE FOR HVY SNOW/ICE PROBS.

by **tom23** 2013-01-24, 9:09 pm

Walters State college is closed tomorrow, as is Carson Newman College. Good, so now I won't have to worry with grabbing a snowmobile and driving it to school... lol

by **dahrkdaiz** 2013-01-24, 9:41 pm

tom23 wrote:Walters State college is closed tomorrow, as is Carson Newman College. Good, so now I won't have to worry with grabbing a snowmobile and driving it to school... lol

I'm pretty sure a snow mobile won't help much in ice lol.

by **Jed33** 2013-01-24, 9:44 pm

Lol, prob. Solved then Tom!
meanwhile, back to nowcasting, temp now 21 under mostly clear skies and a stiff N NE breeze. Making it quite cold outside. I would have thought the precip would be blossoming by now, but its not. I'm thinkibg the system is going to be slower than expected. Could be wrong, but I would have expected at least a little something by now.

by **tom23** 2013-01-24, 9:52 pm

Jed, we all know there is just too much dry air to overcome... lol

by **Jscentraltn** 2013-01-24, 10:03 pm

The precip will start around mid night around nw Alabama! As far as dry air to overcome. I think once the precip comes in it will hit the ground! It won't be a Verga storm! Bring some ice

by **Snowfacial** 2013-01-24, 10:05 pm

Latest run of the nam ups the moisture for the border area tn and va...is there no shot that some place in that area could remain all snow? Seems like we have good models support for .40-.70 I that area...but sleet is expected to eat into those numbers. The weenie in me is looking for 4-5 inch snow where there appears very little upside for a storm like this

by **John1122** 2013-01-24, 10:07 pm

The precip probably starts in Tennessee around midnight down Adam's way. Probably get to morristown around 5-6 am. Tri around 8.

by **Jscentraltn** 2013-01-24, 10:07 pm

Dry air has nothing to do with precip forming! Just reaching the ground!

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