January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Today's model runs will be very telling of what the system will do. I'm looking for some sort of consistency today

Latest hi res models are even colder over most of Tennessee. Havent really looked at soundings but most of the p-type graphics never really show a change to just plain rain in east TN anymore.

Toot wrote:Latest hi res models are even colder over most of Tennessee. Havent really looked at soundings but most of the p-type graphics never really show a change to just plain rain in east TN anymore.

Good grief, not what I was hopping to hear. My wife is a nurse at UT and she works nights. Its mandatory that she works and the last 5-6 years we've had many close calls. I've got a 4x4 but it'll do nothing for me tomorrow. Sucks balls!!!!

Definitely going to be some virga in the beginning, leading to evap. Cooling of course. Latest wrf tells a rough pic. Of ice, I'm afraid. Want snow, have to go up further than TRI, according to it. NAM and GFS don't have as much qpf now it seems, or at least east of the apps. On tw and am, they are moving on to the next event.

As someone who has seen this scenario play out more times than snow, I can tell you that temps. 99% of the time don't rise as much as the models say. Unless,the LP is stronger than modeled causing more than expected waa. Or, if precip stops or tapers down. Sometimes that will let it rise. Thats usually borderline situations or at the end of the event though.

VFL wrote:

Toot wrote:Latest hi res models are even colder over most of Tennessee. Havent really looked at soundings but most of the p-type graphics never really show a change to just plain rain in east TN anymore.

Good grief, not what I was hopping to hear. My wife is a nurse at UT and she works nights. Its mandatory that she works and the last 5-6 years we've had many close calls. I've got a 4x4 but it'll do nothing for me tomorrow. Sucks balls!!!!

I worked there for several years and at that time their policy was that inclimate weather was not an excuse to miss work.. However, they said that if you couldn't make it in, that they would come get you---they never came got me during the year we had the blizzard. With ICE stay at home! I know UT will make you feel bad for missing but its not worth it! If they really need you, they will come get you.

BRING ON THE ICE!

Reading some info on the shallow cold air. Go up to let see 3,000 ft and with temps in the valley near 32 you would think snow but not so with this system. You could be in Gatliburg with fr rain/sleet and go up on Mt Leconte with this system it would just be a cold rain. And when you get freezing rain/sleet this is just one more chance we all missed out on a snow. The clock is running on this winter for chances of any good snows this winter. Not looking good into the first week of Feb either. We do have a winter storm watch out but system don't look as wet as it did yesterday. Less than .25 or something near that plus or minus. If winter stays on the current path it will be a dud. The snow some received last week was more in the NE section. Oh well. Have a good day everyone.

Lol, and there goes the dp. 6 now at TYS. Temp holding there at 33. This setup SCREAMS ice!

Anyone have any idea why MRX is showing sleet for Chatty and Knoxville for Saturday night? Has sunny skies during the day and chance for sleet at night. I was just curious since it popped up out of nowhere on ther website.

So now I am confused..lol the winter storm watch is in effect from 1:00 AM Fri Jan 25, 2013 until 4:00 AM Friday..Doesn't make any sense to me at all..Why is it just in effect for 3 hours? But they have now issued a Freezing Rain Advisory from Fri 4am until Fri 7pm...This is confusing lol

Yes, it is confusing, ORWeatherGuy. Someone made an error I suppose. Looking at this one, it appears to be in effect from 1am Friday through tonight????

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ FRIDAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ FRIDAY.

I am in Oak Ridge too, by the way!

Just a typo. Mine showing WSW Fri 1am until Fri7 pm and frzrn advisory from 4am Fri until 7pm Friday

WSW was canceled. Freezing rain advisory in effect.

Any idea of why the cancelled the Winter Storm Watch? I really thought they would upgrade that to a Warning instead of just a Freezing Rain Advisory...

OakRidgeWeatherGuy wrote:Any idea of why the cancelled the Winter Storm Watch? I really thought they would upgrade that to a Warning instead of just a Freezing Rain Advisory...

I think, in order to get a Winter Storm Warning for freezing rain, you must have between .25-.5 inches of ice. At least thats what I think. Could very well be wrong

I think anything MRX calls for should be taken with a grain of salt. We saw how well they handled the last winter event. Keep watching the forums and models and make your own plan of action. Personally, I'm bringing an extra blanket and food to work just in case it turns into a skating rink tomorrow.

To get a Winter Storm Warning from MRX you would either need 4 or more inches of snow, or at least .25 freezing rain and sleet mix.
Just freezing rain alone and between .1 and .25 in is freezing rain advisory in MRX CWA. Over .25in Freezing rain only would be an Ice Storm Warning.

dahrkdaiz wrote:I think anything MRX calls for should be taken with a grain of salt. We saw how well they handled the last winter event. Keep watching the forums and models and make your own plan of action. Personally, I'm bringing an extra blanket and food to work just in case it turns into a skating rink tomorrow.

Yes, that is an excellent idea. It will definitely be a dangerous situation to say the least. Ice, even wtih the smallest amounts, is more dangerous than snow is. Both travel wise and living wise. It causes tree limbs to break faster than snow, and we all know what happens when trees start breaking all over the place. Not to mention it becomes a skating rink on the roads.

MRX is in sort of a bad spot. They have to issue a blanket forecast but have so many micro climates they're likely to miss quite a few backyards.

JKL's forecast for just over the border a few miles from me is vastly different than MRX.

We'll see who gets closer, I do know this, if I change over to rain, it will happen later in the day than West Knoxville. But my forecast is pretty much the same as West Knox.

MRX is apparently using the driest model and then subtracting from it to come up with it's near .10 ice accumulation.

The funniest part of the MRX grid is that Western Scott Co has a chance of precip starting at 1am. 25 miles East my chances start at 7 am. 6 hours to cross 1 county is some slow moving precip!

Well the zone forecast updated, from what I understand the Mets write these and the point forecast is computer generated.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening...then mostly cloudy with a chance of light freezing rain and a slight chance of light sleet after midnight. Lows in the mid 20s. Southeast winds 10 mph or less. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.

Friday: Light freezing rain in the morning and early afternoon. Rain early in the afternoon...then a chance of rain or snow likely late in the afternoon. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch. Ice accumulation of up to one quarter of an inch. Highs in the mid 30s. East winds 10 mph or less shifting to the southwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

A trend back to wetter? here is the 18z NAM

By merely looking at the Mrx Afd, you'd think there was nothing of any significance coming down the pipes... lol...

The zone forecast above, written by MRX mets, say light rain several times, but in their AFD they say ice accretion will be less because of moderate rain. They're probably among the most self contradicting offices in the nation.

Lol, they don't get into this kind of situation enough to forecast it. I bet if you took some guys out of MEG (Memphis) and gave them this data, the forecast would look different. That said, maybe it wouldn't, John is right, there are so many micro-climates around here, it's difficult to forecast it right. I've just seen too many ice storms from living over in W TN and N MS to know that when it's below freezing or just barely above, and you have a dp of 1 degree, that if you get precip to fall into that layer, you have evap. cooling that kicks into HIGH gear. It's extremely difficult to overcome that kinda cooling with WAA and a low that's as weak as what's being progged. Also, I would think that bc the valleys around here are way deeper than over there, that there would be more low level cold air trapped over here, resulting in more pro-longed freezing precip. Just my opinion though.