January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Before I start about this next event I just wanted to say I just joined here about 5 mins ago and I really like the site. Second of all, I was watching the potential for a storm between January 21-26th period for a winter event that can give the Northeast some decent snow totals. But that was like 5 days ago. I haven't looked at the data for the past days because I have the flu here. Also follow this page tho and tell ur friend and family to follow it also. But anway, is the threat still there

https://www.facebook.com/pages/I-95-Corridor-Weather-Center/322150254553268?ref=hl

Glad you Joined Samir..havent looked at anything for this timeframe but will later

Jan 25th- 26th looks like something could happen in that time frame.

The GFS has been developing a secondary low pressure system on the tail end of a MAJOR arctic front that the "Saskatchewan screamer" drags through the eastern US. This LPS turns into major nor'easter. The last few runs have been trending colder and further south with this secondary low. It will need to be watched because this secondary low could develop into a nice "Miller A" type of storm system given the pattern in play. The HPC will likely be sending G4 winter recon aircraft to the Pacific to get better sampling on this system.

12z still has the secondary low, definitely something to watch.

Looks like the GFS 12z run was a Home Run for TN.

Just a few NW flow snow showers after a big rain event is all I see on 12z.

THe euro has quite an interesting look as well in this timeframe.

The trend in guidance over the last 36 hours or so has been further south and colder with the system late next week. Euro showed a nice snowstorm for all of kentucky.

Hopefully, we're starting to get some better data on the wave coming out of the nor pac and this thing continues to trend better for us all.

I can see 6-10+ easily from Kentucky through mid-atlantic up into I-95 corridor than the general northeast easily . Hope it comes true.

I cleaned up the thread title a little to cause less confusion. As Mundie alluded to..a big jump southward on the euro. I posted the total snowfall from the 12z euro in the members only section. Its important to not take it verbatim..just notice that the snow swath has came southward.

Now..on to the 18zGFS!!

New here! Been reading post all winter. Thanks! Is there any chance the energy out west comes east and breaks down the ridge and we go more west to east with more PAC air and it stays to warm for any snow or ice only to get cold after the storm pulls east.

Looking at the 12z gfs for central tn it looks like a quick changeover with not much for acc. This sucks because our window for winter is coming to a close maybe 3 to 4 weeks. I really wanted a great snow storm this winter. Thanks toot for the thundersnow video.

Why if you have a artic air mass how can the gfs take the main low toward the lakes and cut the cold so fast? New and full of questions that's all. Thanks

Jscentraltn wrote:Why if you have a artic air mass how can the gfs take the main low toward the lakes and cut the cold so fast? New and full of questions that's all. Thanks

On the GFS it's not really going towards the Lakes as much as West to East. It's being modeled as more of a miller B type system right now with a secondary low forming over NE GA/NW SC that turns into a monster Nor"Easter and drives frigid air and snow showers down into Tennessee.

Jscentraltn wrote:New here! Been reading post all winter. Thanks! Is there any chance the energy out west comes east and breaks down the ridge and we go more west to east with more PAC air and it stays to warm for any snow or ice only to get cold after the storm pulls east.

Im not sure I understand your question correctly here. What ridge would it break down by coming east?

Jscentraltn wrote:Looking at the 12z gfs for central tn it looks like a quick changeover with not much for acc. This sucks because our window for winter is coming to a close maybe 3 to 4 weeks. I really wanted a great snow storm this winter. Thanks toot for the thundersnow video.

I wouldnt take the model so seriously..it will change for better or worse. There is still about 6 weeks left in meteorological winter..not 3 to 4.

Plus you also have March which is known for big winter storms! The next 3-4 weeks are the most climatologically favored for snow in Tennessee. I understand some are snowstarved but met winter is only half way over...so there is no reason not to expect more winter threats!

Jscentraltn wrote:Why if you have a artic air mass how can the gfs take the main low toward the lakes and cut the cold so fast? New and full of questions that's all. Thanks

Origin of an airmass really doesnt have much to do with steering a low pressure system at the surface. Mid latitude cyclones move in the direction of 500 mb flow at usually about half the speed.

Thanks for all of the info! I guess toot I thought the energy would go over the ridge out west and dive south then ride the jet but i don't know I'm just learning to me with the question it looked like the energy out west was going though the ridge not over the top? Maybe a dumb question thanks!

Jscentraltn wrote:Thanks for all of the info! I guess toot I thought the energy would go over the ridge out west and dive south then ride the jet but i don't know I'm just learning to me with the question it looked like the energy out west was going though the ridge not over the top? Maybe a dumb question thanks!

Im not looking at the energy in question right now but I can tell you that its impossible for a shortwave to actually go through a 500mb ridge. It just cant happen.

BTW John..didnt mean to step on your toes..I didnt realize anyone was responding to his/her post.

MRX talking about ICE ICE BABY followed by snow showers

Code:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
308 PM EST SAT JAN 19 2013


.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...COLD AIR ADVECTION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FROM ARCTIC FRONT TO BRING MUCH COLDER
AIR MASS INTO THE REGION. LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST OF THE WINTER AND
IN THE PAST COUPLE YEARS. NW FLOW BEHIND FRONT WILL ALSO INCREASE
WINDS PRODUCING WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND NOT QUITE AS LOW IN THE VALLEYS. WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS MOST PLACES MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AREAS WITH LEFT OVER SNOW COVER STILL ON THE
GROUND IN SW VA MAY BE EVEN DROP TO NEAR ZERO. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
WARM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. THE BREAK IN THE COLD
PATTERN WILL BE BRIEF AS NEW SHORT WAVE DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE MID MS
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE TN VALLEY FRIDAY. WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER COLD AIR TRAPPED ACROSS NE
SECTIONS MAY ALLOW SOME FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. FREEZING LEVELS DROP
RAPIDLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES IN ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH AS NEW MODEL INFORMATION COMES IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT PRECIPITATION
TYPES.

Toot wrote:

Jscentraltn wrote:Thanks for all of the info! I guess toot I thought the energy would go over the ridge out west and dive south then ride the jet but i don't know I'm just learning to me with the question it looked like the energy out west was going though the ridge not over the top? Maybe a dumb question thanks!

Im not looking at the energy in question right now but I can tell you that its impossible for a shortwave to actually go through a 500mb ridge. It just cant happen.

BTW John..didnt mean to step on your toes..I didnt realize anyone was responding to his/her post.

I know what the poster is talking about. The PAC ridge is really "thin" and the energy coming from the north PAC is just clipping off the top of the ridge. Not sure if that's correct, but it's happened before.

Toot, I couldn't resist buddy...

Yo, VIP, let's kick it!

Ice ice baby
Ice ice baby
All right stop
Collaborate and listen
Ice is back with my brand new invention
Something grabs a hold of me tightly
Then I flow like a harpoon daily and nightly
Will it ever stop?
Yo, I don't know
Turn off the lights and I'll glow
To the extreme I rock a mic like a vandal
Light up a stage and wax a chump like a candle

Dance
Bum rush the speaker that booms
I'm killin' your brain like a poisonous mushroom
Deadly, when I play a dope melody
Anything less that the best is a felony
Love it or leave it
You better gain way
You better hit bull's eye
The kid don't play
If there was a problem
Yo, I'll solve it
Check out the hook while my DJ revolves it

Ice ice baby Vanilla
Ice ice baby Vanilla
Ice ice baby Vanilla
Ice ice baby Vanilla....

LOL

etnwx wrote:Yo, VIP, let's kick it!

Thanks jmundie! That's what I meant thanks for clearing that up. also to be clear toot i'am male! really enjoy the post thanks

Well the euro and gfs have flip flopped. What I see is a cold rain with some sleet at onset. As far as nor"Easter I don't see it for now! Kentucky and indi get the snow!

If there is a way for any winter weather to miss middle tn it seems to find it these days. Still time but I'm growin more concerned by the day.

The models still struggle with this storm. The last few days were more south today more north. I can see how it will still come south over the next few days but not enough for fun! Anyway I hope the cold can still win out late month and early feb!