Clipper Train 2013

by **Toot** 2013-01-29, 9:09 pm

I hope you aint getting used to the warmer weather because its not gonna last long!! The polar vortex is gonna set up shop around Hudson Bay. Many spokes of energy will be rotating around the vortex resulting in several Clipper systems threatening the area. It may even be possible for one of them to really overperform while getting the southern stream involved (A few ensemble members show this).

Anyways..chances are pretty good for a couple of them to lay down some light snow accumulations across northern sections of the state. Winter cancel? Not so fast my friend!

The first one will be coming through much quicker than originally thought. Here is the latest NAM simulated radar valid for this Friday and it has PLENTY of support!!
Clipper Train 2013 33tgn4h

by **connerconner** 2013-01-29, 9:27 pm

what are you thinking with this one Thur/Fri, toot?

I like clippers; high ratios, dry snows that will stick to anything.

by **Jscentraltn** 2013-01-29, 9:44 pm

Dry snows don't stick to everything it blows around like powder! This system will be weak. Maybe dusting to 1in or so if your lucky.

by **Toot** 2013-01-29, 9:50 pm

Clippers are known for light snow accumulations..but the ratios are usually great! Snow totals from this first one will likely range from a dusting to to about 3 inches in the higher elevations (Plateau and Mountains). The further north you are the more snow you will see on the ground!

by **Jed33** 2013-01-29, 9:53 pm

I was just thinking we'd probably need a thread for these clippers, I am somewhat enthused about this upcoming weekend! I like all snow, even the crumbs

by **Jscentraltn** 2013-01-29, 10:02 pm

Jed33 wrote:I was just thinking we'd probably need a thread for these clippers, I am somewhat enthused about this upcoming weekend! I like all snow, even the crumbs

I'll take the crumbs too! I don't know if you live in the east? but if you do And you start getting them blow them back to the west! Thanks rock on

by **jmundie** 2013-01-29, 10:52 pm

Nam continues getting wetter

Clipper Train 2013 Nam-hires_namer_051_sim_reflectivity

Clipper Train 2013 Nam-hires_namer_054_sim_reflectivity

by **Jscentraltn** 2013-01-29, 11:08 pm

It's looking better from what you posted for me! Where are you seeing that at? the NAM I checked at 51 hrs showed most of the precip in Kentucky and very light! Thanks

by **ballpark** 2013-01-29, 11:31 pm

This is the Sunday Snow storm

by **Jed33** 2013-01-30, 7:17 am

I'll take the crumbs too! I don't know if you live in the east? but if you do And you start getting them blow them back to the west! Thanks

JS, I live in NE TN, about 1 county W of the apps. If I could blow it back to you I would, lol!

by **ballpark** 2013-01-30, 11:38 am

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfssnowdepth084.gif The 12z GFS show some good accumlations.

by **jmundie** 2013-01-30, 12:19 pm

Jscentraltn wrote:Dry snows don't stick to everything it blows around like powder! This system will be weak. Maybe dusting to 1in or so if your lucky.

Memphis got a superclipper on Jan 10 1997. check the reanalysis on it. We had less than .2 qpf and 4-6 inches of snow. I'll take that any day of the week.

by **Jed33** 2013-01-30, 1:11 pm

jmundie wrote:
Jscentraltn wrote:Dry snows don't stick to everything it blows around like powder! This system will be weak. Maybe dusting to 1in or so if your lucky.

Memphis got a superclipper on Jan 10 1997. check the reanalysis on it. We had less than .2 qpf and 4-6 inches of snow. I'll take that any day of the week.

I can officially testify to this, as I lived in Memphis at the time. The night before it happened, we were watching the Weather Channel and Jim Cantore was talking about a piece of energy along the arctic front scheduled to move in the next morning. He said, Memphis needs to keep an eye on this as it rotates along with the front. The NWS didn't buy into it, as they were only going with flurries at the time. However, early the next morning, we were at like 45 at our house in Olive Branch (just across the state line). The arctic front came through around 730 and dropped the temp about 20 degrees by about 830. A little light snow and flurries began around 8, and quit for about 20 min, but then it snowed from about 830-1230. We ended up getting about 4.5in of flurry dry powder. The disturbance responsible for the snow was pretty much stationary around the greater Memphis area, and moved very little during that time. Basically only extreme N MS W TN over to about Jackson and extreme E AR got anything from it. The ratios were almost 40:1 in some cases! That night it got very cold, and the snow compacted, almost like it didn't melt (sublimation). One of my favorite snow events!

by **jmundie** 2013-01-30, 1:50 pm

Glad I'm not the only one that recalls that storm jed. I think its my all time favorite snow - only cause I was too young to remember Jan 85 and Jan 88.

by **Dyersburg Weather** 2013-01-30, 2:34 pm

jmundie wrote:Glad I'm not the only one that recalls that storm jed. I think its my all time favorite snow - only cause I was too young to remember Jan 85 and Jan 88.

You really would be bitter about these sucky winters if you grew up in the 70s and 80s like us old farts. rfl

by **Snowfacial** 2013-01-30, 2:38 pm

The 85 winter would have been interesting to have lived through...

American wx reporting 3 inch or tri Saturday

by **Jed33** 2013-01-30, 3:00 pm

85 and 88 were my all time favorites, until the event we just had with the thundersnow. 85 is still #1, but Jan. 88 has just been bumped to 3rd place. Jan. 85 for me was awesome, I was 8 at the time, and living with my parents on our farm in Amory, MS (se of Tupelo). We had days and days of rain, and the weatherman kept saying it was going to change to snow. Well, it did, but we were on the very far southern end, so we got 2in of freezing rain, then 2in of sleet on top of that, followed by 3in of snow to finish it off. We also had thunder with the sleet, but it was gone by the time it changed to snow. We had no power for 3wks. (the worst part) The best part-no school for 3wks! The temps dropped below zero too -11 was the lowest. So, that my friends is one more epic storm to do that, even at such low latitudes, lol, as I come from!

by **ballpark** 2013-01-30, 6:06 pm

It looks likes we have 3 chances starting tomorrow evening thru Sunday to get Snow on the ground. Hopefully the Snow drought will be broken in my area for this weekend.

by **tennessee storm09** 2013-01-30, 6:49 pm

Jed33 wrote:85 and 88 were my all time favorites, until the event we just had with the thundersnow. 85 is still #1, but Jan. 88 has just been bumped to 3rd place. Jan. 85 for me was awesome, I was 8 at the time, and living with my parents on our farm in Amory, MS (se of Tupelo). We had days and days of rain, and the weatherman kept saying it was going to change to snow. Well, it did, but we were on the very far southern end, so we got 2in of freezing rain, then 2in of sleet on top of that, followed by 3in of snow to finish it off. We also had thunder with the sleet, but it was gone by the time it changed to snow. We had no power for 3wks. (the worst part) The best part-no school for 3wks! The temps dropped below zero too -11 was the lowest. So, that my friends is one more epic storm to do that, even at such low latitudes, lol, as I come from!

i am not expecting much on these clipper systems to be honest with you, at least for west tn... winter 85 i had a grand total of 42 inches of snow that winter here in west tn... awsome. 2 of the snows were 12 inches, another one a solid 8 ... i almost certain we will never see a winter like that again in tennessee... memeories, how they linger

by **John1122** 2013-01-30, 7:46 pm

MRX didn't even mention the first clipper in the AFD today. Just left the forecast the same as it's been for the past couple days. 40% snow showers.

10 miles NW of me in S.Kentucky the forecast is 70% snow and JKL mentioned 1-2 with some 3+ amounts if any banding set up and said they'd most likely be issuing a WWA for snow by tomorrow.

by **Snowfacial** 2013-01-30, 7:58 pm

Mrx is well, Mrx

But the clipper train isn't getting much attention anywhere

by **jmundie** 2013-01-30, 8:00 pm

Never bet on a clipper

by **Toot** 2013-01-30, 8:11 pm

As I said earlier...I-40 and north/plateau and east usually does decent with clippers and that will probably be the case tomorrow. Elevated areas could see a 1-3 while unelevated areas will see a dusting to 2!

by **John1122** 2013-01-30, 8:15 pm

jmundie wrote:Never bet on a clipper

For many years they were the most sure bet you could get for my area if you were looking for 1-3 inches of snow with the occasional bonus.

The 70s and 80s were littered with high producing clippers for Northern Tennessee, especially Northeastern Middle and points eastward.

by **Toot** 2013-01-31, 7:49 am

MRX has a WWA for extreme NE TN regarding Clipper #1..why the advisory is not further west I will never know..lol

Code:: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 405 AM EST THU JAN 31 2013 ...LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING... .A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND EAST TENNESSEE. TNZ014>018-041>047-072-074-087-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-312200- /O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0004.130201T0300Z-130201T1500Z/ CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS- NORTHWEST GREENE-SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI- NORTHWEST CARTER-SOUTHEAST CARTER-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS- SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST MONROE-LEE-WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL- WASHINGTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TAZEWELL...SNEEDVILLE...ROGERSVILLE... KINGSPORT...BRISTOL...MOUNTAIN CITY...COSBY...GREENEVILLE... CEDAR CREEK...JOHNSON CITY...ERWIN...ELIZABETHTON... ROAN MOUNTAIN...CADES COVE...GATLINBURG...COKER CREEK... JONESVILLE...WISE...NORTON...GATE CITY...LEBANON...ABINGDON 405 AM EST THU JAN 31 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY. * TIMING...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FRIDAY MORNING. * MAIN IMPACT...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. * OTHER IMPACTS...SNOW WILL MAINLY ACCUMULATE ON GRASSY SURFACES...BUT SOME ROADS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS FROM SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION...PRIMARILY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. DRIVING AND WALKING MAY BE DIFFICULT ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.