Clipper Train 2013

We have snow currently falling here in Erwin. Maybe this morning's dusting will stick around tonight! Hope everyone has a great day!!

Man, I really like the looks of the WRF!

Looks like parts of Tenn may have at least two shots at snow from now until monday. It does bring a fast mover down again on Sunday. So will watch and see. But the better chances are N and NE.

Me too I think eastern middle Tennessee and eastward might do pretty decent. Time will tell only 12hrs to go!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH A
COLD AND DRY AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS AGREE THAT A
SHORT WAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...WHICH WILL QUICKLY PUSH THIS COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND IT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT...WITH
CAPE VALUES UP TO 50 J/KG. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS QUICK-MOVING FRONT...THIS LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE SOME INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...TEMPS IN THE 20S TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO ENSURE THAT ANY SNOW THAT FALLS ACCUMULATES QUICKLY (AND POSSIBLY WITH A SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIO HIGHER THAN THE STANDARD 10:1 RATIO). WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL EXPAND THE WINTER WX ADVISORY TO INCLUDE
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST TN WHERE ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN AN INCH. MODELS INDICATE THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT...

Beat me to it Andy. Yep, MRX on board for the area, at least for tonight. Now, lets hope it pans out! I said it earlier, the WRF looks great for a lot of locations! I'd take it in a heartbeat

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
331 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013

...LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...

.A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 20S TONIGHT...THIS SNOWFALL SHOULD BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE IN
MOST AREAS.


NCZ060-061-TNZ012-013-035>040-067>071-073-081-082-098-102-010515-
/O.EXA.KMRX.WW.Y.0004.130201T0300Z-130201T1500Z/
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-
HAMBLEN-NORTHWEST COCKE-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
NORTH SEVIER-SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-MARION-EAST POLK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MURPHY...HAYESVILLE...ONEIDA...
LA FOLLETTE...WARTBURG...CLINTON...OAK RIDGE...MAYNARDVILLE...
RUTLEDGE...MORRISTOWN...NEWPORT...KINGSTON...LENOIR CITY...
KNOXVILLE...DANDRIDGE...MARYVILLE...SEVIERVILLE...DUNLAP...
PIKEVILLE...JASPER...DUCKTOWN
331 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013 /231 PM CST THU JAN 31 2013/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/
THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM EST /9
PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ FRIDAY.

* TIMING...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL QUICKLY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

* OTHER IMPACTS...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ALL UNTREATED SURFACE...
AND SECONDARY ROADS WILL LIKELY BECOME HAZARDOUS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT. DRIVING AND WALKING MAY BE DIFFICULT ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS
AND SIDEWALKS. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME
TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

&&

$$

TNZ014>018-041>047-072-074-087-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-010515-
/O.CON.KMRX.WW.Y.0004.130201T0300Z-130201T1500Z/
CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHWEST GREENE-SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-
NORTHWEST CARTER-SOUTHEAST CARTER-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST MONROE-LEE-WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-
WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TAZEWELL...SNEEDVILLE...ROGERSVILLE...
KINGSPORT...BRISTOL...MOUNTAIN CITY...COSBY...GREENEVILLE...
CEDAR CREEK...JOHNSON CITY...ERWIN...ELIZABETHTON...
ROAN MOUNTAIN...CADES COVE...GATLINBURG...COKER CREEK...
JONESVILLE...WISE...NORTON...GATE CITY...LEBANON...ABINGDON
331 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY...

* TIMING...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL QUICKLY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT...1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

* OTHER IMPACTS...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ALL UNTREATED SURFACES...
AND SECONDARY ROADS WILL LIKELY BECOME HAZARDOUS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT. DRIVING AND WALKING MAY BE DIFFICULT ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS
AND SIDEWALKS. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME
TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

&&

I always like seeing those steep low level lapse rates. It usually creates some intense bands of snow with these systems.

downsloping is going to piss me the hell off tonight. guaranfuckinteed

Easy Reb! It'll be present, I guarantee too. It always is here in the great valley, but hopefully what moisture there is can combine with the cold temps and steep lapse rates, to produce some decent accums. We have MRX on board, and that takes a lot to get them on board for the valley.

Reb wrote:downsloping is going to piss me the hell off tonight. guaranfuckinteed

todd howell is thinking a good half inch for the central valley. if it covers the roads at all ill be fairly pleased.

A fast moving but intense clipper system will affect parts of the state tonight. Snow could become heavy and squall like at times causing whiteout conditions due to favorable atmospheric paramaters.

Snow ratios will be rather high with this system and surface temperatures will be very cooperative allowing for most of what falls to accumulate. This is the first in a series of clipper systems to race southward out of Canada over the next few days.

VFL wrote:

Reb wrote:downsloping is going to piss me the hell off tonight. guaranfuckinteed

True dat en dem sum!!!

That reminds me of Chinese food.

Toot, what do you think about Sat. Clipper. It looks even better moisture wise than this one. WRF has it tapping gulf moisture it appears. MRX says temps will be borderline for it though, but i'm thinking there may be enough moisture at night for some minor accums. Any thoughts?

Temp profiles look pretty similar to this one but it does seem to be a stronger clipper which will advect more warm air into the region than this one. Probably a rain to snow situation Knoxville and southward

Radar shot out of Paducah KY..is sexy as all get out!!

Toot wrote:Radar shot out of Paducah KY..is sexy as all get out!!

Dang, that even looks good for the mid state.

such a tease. toot....you and i both know downsloping will suck ass tonight

Reb wrote:such a tease. toot....you and i both know downsloping will suck ass tonight

Definately a problem the further south you go in the valley..here in Mtown..not so much!

Lol...**Spits drink everywhere**

Thanks Rebel..that made me laugh

Temp dropped from 45 to 34 in 20 minutes and it is snowing in the Burg,

And I mean SNOWING quarters. You guys east of here might get a surprise. Radar not doing it justice.

I want some quarters, lol. Ill take my yard 1 inch deep with quarters, and plan for early retirement, lol.

Dyersburg Weather wrote:And I mean SNOWING quarters. You guys east of here might get a surprise. Radar not doing it justice.

After seeing that radar image outta Paducha I knew it wouldnt be long until we heard from you..LOL Is it laying?