Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Toot wrote:No chance of frost tonight..the only chance for frost that I see is possibly early next week!

Oh, man.

It's a total crap shoot, but the Accuweather long range temp forecast is showing 0 80+ degrees days out to the end of May for me. I think Knoxville cracked 80 a few days in April, but 78 on April 10th is my high for the year so far. If we escape May without hitting 80 it'll be unprecedented.

GFS VS EURO for Monday night lows!

GFS


EURO


A compromise between the two would still mean a frost threat for east TN if winds and sky cover cooperates! God help us if the GFS is correct..LOL

Dang, winter doesn't want to give up. Its about like this flu-b that i've had now since April 3rd. it just keeps repeating itself

The canadian model is balls to the wall..Lol

Look at that massive ridge out west!!

It would definately side with the GFS on the colder temps...ive never seen this much amplication of the longwave pattern during May

Man, you know the weather is boring when nobody posts anything for 4 days. This system appears to be a bust in the rainfall dept. Seems like the MCS yesterday morning along the gulf coast, robbed the moisture from yesterdays shortwave and all but wiped out rain chances here. Then, yesterday evening/overnight's shortwave was too week to produce much of anything. Radar this AM looks pretty anemic too. We don't neccessarily need a lot of rain, but this time of year, when I start seeing systems under perform, I begin to wonder how long before the heat and dry weather sets in for the summer. Maybe, this summer will be different. It's been the coldest spring I ever recall, so I guess it could continue. Guess we'll see.

Jed33 wrote:Man, you know the weather is boring when nobody posts anything for 4 days.

Very boring!! Its been a very inactive spring so far..I think ive heard thunder twice all spring Cool weather in May cannot bring any excitement..hopefully we can kick this pattern by the end of the month!

Meanwhile..Monday morning low temperatures from the hi resolution NAM model suggests a rather large frost threat. Winds look to cooperate so if cloud cover also cooperates it will frost over much of the region if this model is to be believed. If you live north of I-40 and have tender plants out they will need to be covered Sunday night and likely again Monday night. Better safe than sorry!

NWS service has us down into the up 30's Sunday night Monday Morning with wind 10 mph or less. By this time of year you don't talk about frost down here. OUR last frost is mid April on avg.We have had killing frost/freeze in the last part of April. But i remember many years ago in May having to go out and cover my tomato plants in the middle of May. I had just set them out that year so they were easy to cover by just putting a glass jar of them. And one year in June it got down to 41 @ the NWS. Not sure what it was IMBY. This was th 3rd or 4th day of June. Every cool day in spring means one less day of heat which i like. The way our luck runs cool spring warm to hot summer and warm fall and winter. Hope that is not the case this coming winter. CPC UPDATE: Still shows a neutral trend into winter but it to far out to be sure.

What a beauty of a day it has turned out to be. The air has that fresh feeling to it. Will be interesting to see just how low she drops tonight!

Great day today with blue sky kind you would get in fall. Temp right now @ 1:35 p.m. est is 64 degrees.

Lol, got a frost advisory in Middle of May. How cold could this have been if it was Middle of Jan. Guess I'll have to cover up my veggies tnite

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
242 PM EDT SUN MAY 12 2013

...PATCHY FROST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...

.WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR SPILLING IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE LOW TO MID 30S
WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA.

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067-070-072>074-081>083-087-102-
VAZ001-002-005-006-008-130245-
/O.NEW.KMRX.FR.Y.0004.130513T0600Z-130513T1300Z/
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-JEFFERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-SOUTHEAST MONROE-EAST POLK-LEE-WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MURPHY...HAYESVILLE...ONEIDA...
LAFOLLETTE...TAZEWELL...SNEEDVILLE...ROGERSVILLE...KINGSPORT...
BRISTOL...MOUNTAIN CITY...WARTBURG...CLINTON...OAK RIDGE...
MAYNARDVILLE...RUTLEDGE...MORRISTOWN...NEWPORT...COSBY...
GREENEVILLE...CEDAR CREEK...JOHNSON CITY...ERWIN...
ELIZABETHTON...ROAN MOUNTAIN...KINGSTON...DANDRIDGE...
CADES COVE...SEVIERVILLE...GATLINBURG...DUNLAP...PIKEVILLE...
DAYTON...COKER CREEK...DUCKTOWN...JONESVILLE...WISE...
NORTON...GATE CITY...LEBANON...ABINGDON

242 PM EDT SUN MAY 12 2013 /142 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013/

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 9 AM EDT
/8 AM CDT/ MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 9 AM
EDT /8 AM CDT/ MONDAY.

* EVENT...PATCHY FROST...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.

* TIMING...BEGINNING LATE NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE DAMAGED OR KILLED IF
LEFT UNPROTECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE DAMAGED OR KILLED IF LEFT
UNPROTECTED.

Well..the big two weather models both look like they were a little off on low temps overnight tonight. The GFS was of course a little too cold and the EURO was a little too warm! A blend of the two looks to have been the rcorrect guidance for this frost threat.

Frost Advisory for us as well. Forecast low of 36.

As happens so often in this case, no frost here on the hill b/c the wind didn't settle down. I'm currently at 40 degrees. However, once you go down off this ridge, there is some frost there. Thankfully, the wind prevented it here, as I have too many plants to try to cover them all, and some didn't get covered last night.

Low this morning IMBY was 38.5. Some frost on roof tops but did not see any in the grass. We are just about 2 months into spring and this has bring a cool spring. Which is good. Most years in the spring i am all ready running the A/C full blast. So am saving on the electric bill and the wear and tear on the A/C. Temps will be getting back into the 80's this week but still do not see anything hot coming this week. But i know it's just around the corner. So enjoy it while it last.

So far into the month of May here in Chattanooga we are 3.6 degrees below avg. But that can turn around in a blink of and eye since we have at lest 18 more days to go.

Does May 21-22 look interesting to anyone? Severe wise?

Got down to 38 here this morning.

Then I warmed my spirits by going and looking at my point and click forecast. This is what I seen:

Saturday - A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 90.

I wasn't quite expecting that lol. The zone forecast only says mid-upper 80s though, so we will see. Either way, it can't be too long before we're hitting 90.

Toot ,What are some analogs for the rest of the year if you look at Mays with several frost advisories ?

I will try and look into it when I get home this evening DW. Nothing really stands out off the top of my head

Its very hard to find frost data..but based on May temperature data over the past 25 years 1989 and 1997 are the best matches to my eye.

Here is how the summers of 1989 and 1997 turned out temperature wise..both were on the cool side!

1989


1997



Both averaged together


Contrary to earlier thoughts..it looks more and more like this summer will be normal to below normal in regards to temperature..but im not completely sold on this yet..lol

I like the sound of a cooler than normal summer! I hope it turns out that way. Meanwhile, it is cooler tonight here at the house than last night. Currently 46. The difference is the winds, which are calm tonight. Dewpoint is 31 at TYS and TRI, so I think it may actually be colder tonight than last night, at least here at the house. Of course, this is assuming winds stay calm and clouds stay away. We will see, I guess.

No surprise here. Just like I expected. Last night was colder. 36 here at the house, with no wind. Whereas yesterday was 40 for the low. I see more frost around here this AM than yesterday, as I've got some even in my yard today thats funny to me besides the fact that the frost advisory would have been more valid last night than the night before, is that MRX added a few counties to the frost advisory in the southern mtns , this AM at 345 update. Now, how does that give anyone time to prepare? Not nearly as many people could get their plants covered. It.s like, well, we better issue a frost advisory bc we have to. Nevermind that no-one will read this and can do anything about it bc they are all asleep

No frost this morning. Low only down to 43 IMBY.

Mid level ridge of high pressure becoming pretty impressive in northern Atlantic. Feature is currently dominating the longwave weather pattern!