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Winter Wx Discussion 2013/14

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2013/14

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-12-24, 12:39 am

 wash 0zgfs= west tn gets pounded at 240 still ways to go.. brutally cold at the end of the run... nashville gets down for a low below zero... with day time highs only single digits to lower teens. BRRRRR

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2013/14

Post by etnwx on 2013-12-24, 1:18 am

I'm no expert reading the model maps, but the 0z GFS shows what looks like a mostly rain event at 240 hrs in W. TN. Here in E.TN., it looks like at 264 Hrs we may get some snow showers from the wrap around effect, but nothing major. However, at 372 Hrs. I see single digit to even minus single digit lows for much of TN.

Please advise if I'm reading this right or wrong. Thanks!

And while it's eye candy, we all know that at 300+ hours the GFS is a crapshoot at best.

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2013/14

Post by Toot on 2013-12-24, 2:00 am

You're reading it correctly but I wouldnt look at small scale details past hr 192. The GFS's resolution goes all to hell past that hour. It wont do you much good..as you said its basically just eye candy but it can catch onto the overall longwave pattern out there at that range. Smaller scale stuff is indeed a crapshoot past 192 tho

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2013/14

Post by John1122 on 2013-12-24, 3:34 am

It's showing a storm and some cold air around right now and that's about all you can ask for. The prior 3 runs all showed Memphis to Tri-Cities snow accumulations. The players are talking about scheduling a game right now, but they're not really prepared to take the field yet.

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2013/14

Post by Toot on 2013-12-24, 9:36 am

Woke up to a little skiff of snow on the ground this morning. The real light powdery kind

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2013/14

Post by Jed33 on 2013-12-24, 10:20 am

Snow flurries here right now

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2013/14

Post by Jed33 on 2013-12-24, 10:37 am

Getting a really nice snow shower here right now probably won't last, but it sure is great to see Esp. On Christmas Eve

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2013/14

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-12-24, 12:33 pm

 cold  wash man todays 12zgfs still has the big storm around newyears... so so close of crushing west tn...

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2013/14

Post by Toot on 2013-12-24, 12:50 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote: cold  wash man todays 12zgfs still has the big storm around newyears... so so close of crushing west tn...
Yeah..was just looking at it and I like what im seeing. The pattern will be ripe for a nice one!! Just about all the models have the southern stream shortwave but they all handle it a little differently. This mornings euro has it but its holding energy back which is a known bias of the european model. Since it holds the energy back in the SW the shortwave never really matures but remarkably it still shows snow in Tennessee! At this range that is a great sign for a nice Tennessee snow storm. My confidence level at this point is unusally high and right now there is nothing I see that will prevent a significant snow somewhere in the southeast/Mid Atlantic

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2013/14

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-12-24, 6:18 pm

Looking at the forecasted NAO it's starting to level off instead of going neg looking only neutral. Will be an interesting system to watch though! Jan could turn out to be brutal as far as cold.

 cold 

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2013/14

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-12-25, 8:47 am

Here today gone tomorrow! Love the models. Anyway it looks like blocking will setup maybe by the 2nd week in jan. Looks really cold!

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2013/14

Post by John1122 on 2013-12-25, 9:23 am

The models are downright frigid by the first week of the New Year. The Euro is very cold and the GFS has temps well below 0 across the Eastern half of the state by 5th.

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2013/14

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-12-25, 9:29 am

John1122 wrote:The models are downright frigid by the first week of the New Year. The Euro is very cold and the GFS has temps well below 0 across the Eastern half of the state by 5th.
yeah, the 0z euro was just a classic ole winter look to it... snow and cold

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2013/14

Post by Toot on 2013-12-25, 9:40 am

There is wayy too much energy flying around for the models to handle correctly. We will have to get the first gulf low out of the way this weekend before guidance can really get a grasp onto the southern stream energy around New years. I would watch the Low this weekend too..it might just be a little colder than what the models are showing!

The Euro continues to show snow near New Years but it keeps it light due to a northern stream clipper that is timed just perfectly to get WAA going. That solution is likely wrong tho. It just doesnt happen that way. Anyways here's a look at the Arctic outbreak that John/Bruce spoke of above!

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2013/14

Post by Jed33 on 2013-12-25, 10:25 am

Merry Christmas everyone! Looks really cold Toot! Let's hope for some moisture with that cold air. I would hate to see it get so cold without some snow to go along. I would think that NW flow would be huge in this setting, don't know though? Any thoughts Toot or anyone?

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2013/14

Post by Toot on 2013-12-25, 11:06 am

Jed33 wrote:Merry Christmas everyone! Looks really cold Toot! Let's hope for some moisture with that cold air. I would hate to see it get so cold without some snow to go along. I would think that NW flow would be huge in this setting, don't know though? Any thoughts Toot or anyone?
If that Hudson Bay Vortex stays put for a while we could get more than our yearly average in snowfall in just a few weeks. With the placement of the ridge out west and the Vortex near the Canadian border there would likely be multiple light snow events in Middle to East TN during this pattern as spokes of energy continuously rotate around the Vortex.

But I still cant imagine us getting out of this pattern without seeing a nice southern stream low that taps into that cold air source.

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2013/14

Post by Toot on 2013-12-25, 11:34 am

And just as I said that..the 12z GFS comes in much colder with this weekends system as 850s crash before precip exits. Nothing major just yet but will have to watch this system to see if it continues to trend colder like I think it will.

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2013/14

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-12-25, 12:31 pm

Yeah.... It is amazing to see how far north and west precip shield is trending as well. Interesting!!!!

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2013/14

Post by Grandpa Nasty on 2013-12-25, 4:01 pm

whatever happens, well it happens. on the other hand

MERRY CHRISTMAS EVERYONE! Had a great day watching the grandbaby drool over all of her presents.


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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2013/14

Post by etnwx on 2013-12-25, 4:42 pm

First, I wanted to wish everyone a Merry Christmas. Hope you have a blessed day.

Had a low of 16.4 this morning! Burrrr!

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2013/14

Post by joereb1 on 2013-12-25, 10:30 pm

Merry Christmas santa 
Low of 17 here in Corryton. We had quite a few flurries yesterday morning. It was fun while it lasted!!

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2013/14

Post by Toot on 2013-12-26, 9:41 am

Hope everyone had a good Christmas. Now.. how can we follow a snow threat and not post the DGEX? Haha beer 

This may even have a decent chance of verifying.


Anyways..looks like we might need a thread for the New Years Storm system

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2013/14

Post by Toot on 2013-12-27, 9:05 am

The European ensemble control is really amping up the high latitude blocking with the winter weather lovers dream..a triple Blocking signature in the extended range!

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2013/14

Post by windstorm on 2013-12-29, 1:36 pm

Well December will go out as above normal rainfall. Already have 8.03 for the month. Trace of snow. What will January hold in store ???? sauce 
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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2013/14

Post by Toot on 2013-12-29, 5:39 pm

This is the first run of the GFS to show this system! This is fresh off the press from the 18z GFS. Probably just a hiccup but well see if future runs latch onto it. This looks like Jan 5-7th



Yes..im hungry for some winter wx sauce

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2013/14

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