**Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

The best chance we have had since 2010

12Z euro has a statewide I-40 north snowstorm



The lastest GFS temps for the above hour on the euro






WOOF WOOF!!

I've missed the big dog posts Toot. Finally!! 12z GFS Ens was on board with this as well. 12z CMC Ens was close and the 00z CMC Op last night was a huge hit.

I'm about 20 miles south of I40....I guess I'll get to watch the big dog run north :/

Reb wrote:I'm about 20 miles south of I40....I guess I'll get to watch the big dog run north :/

Says he who has cashed in on the Big Dog snows that ran south of I40 for a few years now...

Hahaha

tom23 wrote:

Reb wrote:I'm about 20 miles south of I40....I guess I'll get to watch the big dog run north :/

Says he who has cashed in on the Big Dog snows that ran south of I40 a few years ago...

Hahaha

fixed your post tommy boy

Reb wrote:

tom23 wrote:

Reb wrote:I'm about 20 miles south of I40....I guess I'll get to watch the big dog run north :/

Says he who has cashed in on the Big Dog snows that ran south of I40 a few years ago...

Hahaha

fixed your post tommy boy

Thanks Rebby Reb! Thank ye kindly!

Actually most of the big snows have ran south or along I-40 in the last several years. I did okay in 10 and 11 but south and east or north and west has been clarksville and nw middle tn calling for big storms in recent times. Even that map on the euro looks like clarksville on the northern edge, I know it's a way's off and can change but I hope we don't experience a bunch of near misses and at some point this year all of tennessee and south central ky can get a good snow.

Models are starting to converge on a winter storm late next week.

This my latest thoughts when looking at guidance and factoring climo model biases and temp profiles. This is not a forecast just a general idea of what COULD POSSIBLY happen Jan 17-20

0Z CMC


NOTE: Beginning 12z the hi res euro graphics will be posted in the members only section..so you will have to be a member and logged in to cointinue seeing these graphics
0z Euro



0z Nogaps


0z GFS keeps it really suppresed and then phases it just a hair too late



I really like our chances with this one and the models are right where you want them right now (except the cmc) which is suppressed and will usually come NW in a situation like this as we get closer and the phasing energy is better sampled

I think it would be smart not to start getting carried away with the storm until at least next Monday. I'm not talking about Toot's general idea map two posts above my post, because I think that it is a great thing to have a general idea of what MAY happen, but as far as getting expectations high, it would be best to keep those down. I have seen surer bets than this one fall apart completely or end up as rain or even just flurries 4-7 days out, even in only my short time of following snowstorms. If its still there at the same, or even better, modeled conditions by Monday afternoon, then its time to start setting the expectations level up.

With all that said, come here doggy doggy!!

Looks like it *could* be south of I-40 like the past few snowstorms have been for this area, Toot. We always set our hopes on the NW trend, but it just hasn't happened that way the past few big dog snows. At least not enough for I-40 north to be able to pick up a good chunk of it

tom23 wrote:Looks like it *could* be south of I-40 like the past few snowstorms have been for this area, Toot. We always set our hopes on the NW trend, but it just hasn't happened that way the past few big dog snows. At least not enough for I-40 north to be able to pick up a good chunk of it

Storms this year have mostly all trended drastically NW and gulf low precip shields are ALWAYS undestimated by models to the north of the low. IMO this is the best shot we have had at a good snow since 2010 but like you said we are just monitoring it right now and excitement levels should be somewhat tempered right now due to it being a week out. That said the setup looks pretty solid H5 wise..and with the big arctic high to the north. No way this satys suppressed but it could certainly trend too far NW which would mean more WAA and less frozen precip.

Fun pattern that is about to take hold

Yeah Toot, that's the next thing... I have seen more busts where the LP goes too far NW and makes the thing a cold rain, than complete busts to our south. So right now, yes, we are in excellent position. I'd rather have a suppressed storm being modeled right now at this far out, than a storm to our NW this far out, any day of the week.

I like the potential as well here. Going to need a decent vort though to keep it from getting squashed.

12z Canadian is a lil further north

It looks like a perfect set up for TN with the low being over Mid Ga and the High over NE Ohio.

Well, apparently the Euro crushed it with the PV, at least that's what I'm hearing. Dang, models really playing catch up to the SSW and PV split that is unfolding as we speak.

cmc does something funky but has snow squalls underneath the PV

The Euro remains consistent with the BIG DOG threat for a major winter storm to affect the state Jan 17-19

Graphics are posted in the members only section

The 12zs GFS is a little slower bringing it out of the gulf more around the 20th but this is past truncation so the resolution is all to hell

isn't that the 22nd? you're big dog storm has actually disappeared from the euro. It was holding the energy back (surprise)

jmundie wrote:isn't that the 22nd? you're big dog storm has actually disappeared from the euro. It was holding the energy back (surprise)

Yes..I suppose the gfs and the euro are holding back now but well see..anyways the big dog was on last nights run of the euro. You'll see it come back..just too much energy for the models to try peg it every single run. Im pretty confident you and I will be pretty happy snowwise around the 17th -22nd period. IMO It will take the models a while to lock onto it but the pattern is there and supportive for a major snowstorm.

Toot wrote:

jmundie wrote:isn't that the 22nd? you're big dog storm has actually disappeared from the euro. It was holding the energy back (surprise)

Yes..I suppose the gfs and the euro are holding back now but well see..anyways the big dog was on last nights run of the euro. You'll see it come back..just too much energy for the models to try peg it every single run. Im pretty confident you and I will be pretty happy snowwise around the 17th -22nd period. IMO It will take the models a while to lock onto it but the pattern is there and supportive for a major snowstorm.

No - What I'm saying is the euro was holding the energy back... it now releases it and gets squashed mid week. The energy is going to have to get stuck in the s/w for a storm next weekend when the flow flattens out a bit to allow it to come underneath before the pv drops in day 10.

jmundie wrote:

No - What I'm saying is the euro was holding the energy back... it now releases it and gets squashed mid week. The energy is going to have to get stuck in the s/w for a storm next weekend when the flow flattens out a bit to allow it to come underneath before the pv drops in day 10.

Yeah I understood..the GFS is now holding back too but the gfs doesnt get squashe it turns into a noreaster which is prob waht the euro will eventually come to...Fun times Mundie..Glad ur back posting over here again. I appreciate your knowledge

18z Gfs Ensembles