Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming
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Mrgolf
snowman72
Vanster67
skillsweather
keithinala
tennessee storm09
Stovepipe
Reb
John1122
snowdog
jmundie
Adam2014
Toot
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Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming
There will be a strong cold front attached to a saskatchewan screamer push through around Jan 2nd and I do think it will have post frontal snow on the westside of the cold front and rain on the front side as I alluded to on my blog about a week ago...this is whats called a snow squall line.
Those snow squall lines are rare but do occur with clippers that are strong enough. The last one I remember was the 2009/2010 superclipper that had linear snow attached to the backside of the cold front and linear rain on the front side of the cold front. After this snow and cold front moves out expect brutally cold temps as some places will get into the single digits especially the higher elevations
The true Arctic Outbreak will take hold around JAN3 and my model of choice is the CMC at this point it has been the most consistent lately and I will show the graphics of this outbreak via the CMC
0zCMC surface temps 30's in South Florida
CMC 850mb temps
Those snow squall lines are rare but do occur with clippers that are strong enough. The last one I remember was the 2009/2010 superclipper that had linear snow attached to the backside of the cold front and linear rain on the front side of the cold front. After this snow and cold front moves out expect brutally cold temps as some places will get into the single digits especially the higher elevations
The true Arctic Outbreak will take hold around JAN3 and my model of choice is the CMC at this point it has been the most consistent lately and I will show the graphics of this outbreak via the CMC
0zCMC surface temps 30's in South Florida
CMC 850mb temps
Last edited by Toot on 2012-01-21, 1:28 pm; edited 6 times in total
Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming
Will Middle Tennessee get Post Frontal snow?
Adam2014- Founding Member
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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming
Toot, I believe that the super clipper you are referring to is the Valentines Day snow which I believe was back in 2010. I believe that was on 2/14/10 and 2/15/10 if I'm correct.
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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming
Adam2014 wrote:Will Middle Tennessee get Post Frontal snow?
I would think so Adam but the further north the better you will do snow-wise
Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming
Well thats no good, Im as south as it gets in Middle Tennessee lol.Cyclonicjunkie wrote:Adam2014 wrote:Will Middle Tennessee get Post Frontal snow?
I would think so Adam but the further north the better you will do snow-wise
Adam2014- Founding Member
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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming
Adam2014 wrote:Well thats no good, Im as south as it gets in Middle Tennessee lol.Cyclonicjunkie wrote:Adam2014 wrote:Will Middle Tennessee get Post Frontal snow?
I would think so Adam but the further north the better you will do snow-wise
lolz... low and dry adam, low and dry. ;p
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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming
Clippers have NEVER been my friend lol.
Adam2014- Founding Member
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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming
Adam2014 wrote:Clippers have NEVER been my friend lol.
And as of lately, Low Pressure systems have not been my friend either lol... so join the party! haha
jk
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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming
Yeah lol.Tom23 wrote:Adam2014 wrote:Clippers have NEVER been my friend lol.
And as of lately, Low Pressure systems have not been my friend either lol... so join the party! haha
jk
Adam2014- Founding Member
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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming
Canadian - can't read it well, but its deep and wet
jmundie- Winter Specialist
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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming
I will have what the canadian is showing.jmundie wrote:Canadian - can't read it well, but its deep and wet
Adam2014- Founding Member
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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming
Yeah those maps from CMC themselve pretty much suck
Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming
The words 'deep' and 'wet' sound yummy..
LOL
LOL
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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming
You would Tom. I assume that's a female smiley above?
jmundie- Winter Specialist
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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming
Actually its some guy sitting on a washermachine lol.jmundie wrote:You would Tom. I assume that's a female smiley above?
Adam2014- Founding Member
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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming
Adam2014 wrote:Actually its some guy sitting on a washermachine lol.jmundie wrote:You would Tom. I assume that's a female smiley above?
Actually the word that would be used here is... 'orgasm'... LOLz...
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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming
The hourly precip type map for the CMC says no go except for those around the plateau and mountains may see a little snow before the precip ends. Plenty wet but cold air chasing moisture.
snowdog- Winter Specialist
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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming
snowdog wrote:The hourly precip type map for the CMC says no go except for those around the plateau and mountains may see a little snow before the precip ends. Plenty wet but cold air chasing moisture.
I dont know what you're looking at but the CMC has a small snowstorm thickness and 850's are supportive add Jan climo and you have a snowstorm....no need to look at soundings and precip type at this point..it will change every run
The CMC has been very consistent with this setup and is my guidance choice as of right now as it seems to make more since with secondary development
Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming
Adam - its a girl. She's using the washing machine to, um, pleasure herself.
jmundie- Winter Specialist
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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming
The canadian looks like its wanting to cut off a portion of the energy over tennessee. That would be excellent for all of us.
Euro is dry, except maybe a good upslope event for the mountains betwen 96-120.
We're hanging our hats on the Canadian folks...
Euro is dry, except maybe a good upslope event for the mountains betwen 96-120.
We're hanging our hats on the Canadian folks...
jmundie- Winter Specialist
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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming
There is hints in the 12z ensembles of forming a secondary surface low and the CMC also tries to get this going in the coastal plains of NC/SC/GA... if they do it could be a signifigant winter storm in mid/east TN come Jan 2-4. Still a ways out but just giving my two cents on 12z models
Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming
Cyclonicjunkie wrote:snowdog wrote:The hourly precip type map for the CMC says no go except for those around the plateau and mountains may see a little snow before the precip ends. Plenty wet but cold air chasing moisture.
I dont know what you're looking at but the CMC has a small snowstorm thickness and 850's are supportive add Jan climo and you have a snowstorm....no need to look at soundings and precip type at this point..it will change every run
If you have a warm surface layer to overcome, which we will have in spades, then it will take a reasonable amount of time to cool the surface to near or below freezing to support frozen precip. I have no reason to think the CMC precip type map is wrong at this point. 9 times out of 10 here in middle-TN it is usually cold air chasing moisture in these type set-ups. That is climo for this area. Unless we pop a surface low in Bama, then that changes things.
snowdog- Winter Specialist
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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming
snowdog wrote:
If you have a warm surface layer to overcome, which we will have in spades, then it will take a reasonable amount of time to cool the surface to near or below freezing to support frozen precip. I have no reason to think the CMC precip type map is wrong at this point. 9 times out of 10 here in middle-TN it is usually cold air chasing moisture in these type set-ups. That is climo for this area. Unless we pop a surface low in Bama, then that changes things.
At this point I wouldnt pay any attention to precip type right now you have favorable 850s and thickness values which 99% of the time in JAN means snow at this range
Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming
As for this snow potential, I believe a good bit of East Tennessee will see snow flurries/snow showers. The better you do in upslope the better your shot at seeing them.
MRX isn't buying into it yet, but JKL is, they have 30 percent chance snow showers over most of their area Sunday night and Monday. MRX merely has flurries for Mt LeConte.
JKL points out that the air mass will be squeezing out all available moisture. I agree with them, have saw it too many times in this same situation to believe the MRX take of nothing falling at all outside of the highest Smokies areas.
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