Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

by **Toot** 2012-02-19, 1:47 pm

The 850 low is right over top of ETN as it starts to pass us the rain will change to snow in most locations in the valley

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 34 850mb

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 34 850mb

by **Jed33** 2012-02-19, 1:57 pm

Still trying to learn here, but there has been numerous talk about whether this system was going to phase or not phase, and when/if that would happen. I don't claim to be an expert at recognizing this on radar, but it looks as though moisture is being drawn in off the atlantic into this system as well as the gulf tap too? It looks like the two are interacting now on radar at least. Again, I could be totally wrong? Any ideas?

by Vanster67 2012-02-19, 1:58 pm

thanks for the comments on the photos. looks like it might be ending in a couple of hours though. Maybe some more will develop. I hope you guys get plastered popcorn

by **Toot** 2012-02-19, 2:00 pm

Hate to be a debbie downer but it is my opinion that anyone south of Blount county has about a 0% chance at seeing any accums

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 34 Regional%20Radar

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 34 Regional%20Radar

by **Toot** 2012-02-19, 2:03 pm

Jed33 wrote:Still trying to learn here, but there has been numerous talk about whether this system was going to phase or not phase, and when/if that would happen. I don't claim to be an expert at recognizing this on radar, but it looks as though moisture is being drawn in off the atlantic into this system as well as the gulf tap too? It looks like the two are interacting now on radar at least. Again, I could be totally wrong? Any ideas?

The system is starting that phase now..the best way to see that is 500mb vorticity..notice the neg tilt to the southern stream sw...thats what will give the southern apps and NE TN the big snow amounts..

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 34 Vadv_sf

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 34 Vadv_sf

by Vanster67 2012-02-19, 2:04 pm

Hey Toot, is there anything else out to the west that might develop to keep this thing going until the evening? We have 3 inches so far.

by **Adam2014** 2012-02-19, 2:07 pm

Vanster67 wrote:Hey Toot, is there anything else out to the west that might develop to keep this thing going until the evening? We have 3 inches so far.

Van you do not need anymore snow dang it. Lol

by **Toot** 2012-02-19, 2:08 pm

Well vann you still have a couple of hours of synoptic snow left back towards nashville and there is cold advection generated snow showers developing behind that (NW Flow) that will likely add to your totals..if you have 3 now youvery well could get another inch or 2

by **Jed33** 2012-02-19, 2:10 pm

Toot wrote:

The system is starting that phase now..the best way to see that is 500mb vorticity..notice the neg tilt to the southern stream sw...thats what will give the southern apps and NE TN the big snow amounts..

Wow ok, now I definitely see it! Definitely clears that up for me. Still learning about reading maps and so forth, but that was very helpful to see on that map

by **Toot** 2012-02-19, 2:10 pm

I hate to be a debbie downer but any unelevated spots say south of Lenoir city or blount county will have trouble even seeing a dusting

by Vanster67 2012-02-19, 2:12 pm

Thanks Toot. Adam, I hear ya bro. I wish you had more there. Winter is not over yet. Time to get some sleep.... Gotta work tonight. Be Cool all!! And if possible Be Snowy too!! drool

by **ballpark** 2012-02-19, 2:14 pm

Vanster67 wrote:latest pics to follow

Snow mountain never fails to delivery on if snows. Congradulations Vann enjoy the snow.

by **Toot** 2012-02-19, 2:38 pm

*Update* This system is moving much faster than anyone thought...this will kill any accumulations to less than a half inch in the central and southern valley....The northern valley may pick up an inch...the fast speed will also lower accums in NE TN....to about 2-4.

Snow now mixing in sevier county at about 1200ft in elevation...39 degrees

The 850 freezing line is getting ready to rush into the valley. Rain changing to snow from north to the south

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 34 ADI%20Radar

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 34 ADI%20Radar

by **oakridgeweather** 2012-02-19, 2:41 pm

Toot wrote:*Update* This system is moving much faster than anyone thought...this will kill any accumulations to less than a half inch in the central and southern valley....The northern valley may pick up an inch...the fast speed will also lower accums in NE TN....to about 2-4.

Snow now mixing in sevier county at about 1200ft in elevation...39 degrees

The 850 freezing line is getting ready to rush into the valley

I knew something like this would happen for the central valley..Still 42 degrees here in Oak Ridge..This isn't looking good..at all

by **Toot** 2012-02-19, 2:44 pm

oakridgeweather wrote:

I knew something like this would happen for the central valley..Still 42 degrees here in Oak Ridge..This isn't looking good..at all

You should change over in about 40 mins

by **Toot** 2012-02-19, 2:47 pm

Morristown and Greeneville look to be sitting pretty IMO

by **Jed33** 2012-02-19, 2:55 pm

Toot wrote:Morristown and Greeneville look to be sitting pretty IMO

Sitting pretty as in an inch or so? I just don't see much more than an inch even being possible with this system as fast as it's moving. But, then again, I'm still fairly new at all this. Can you enlighten me on your thoughts Toot?

by **Toot** 2012-02-19, 3:02 pm

Jed33 wrote:
Toot wrote:Morristown and Greeneville look to be sitting pretty IMO

Sitting pretty as in an inch or so? I just don't see much more than an inch even being possible with this system as fast as it's moving. But, then again, I'm still fairly new at all this. Can you enlighten me on your thoughts Toot?

I would say 1-3 in Mtown and Greeneville with 2-4 up towards the tricities area. This is who will recieve the best dynamics from the negatively tilted upper level energy and this will in turn cause the surface low start to intensify about this time to

Latest HR is starting to catch on

about 5 hrs from now

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 34 Temp_t62m_f06

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 34 Temp_t62m_f06

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 34 Temp_t6850_f06

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 34 Cref_t6sfc_f06

The upper level low is very visible on WV imagery
*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 34 Wv_east_anim

by **Jed33** 2012-02-19, 3:08 pm

Yeah, I see some more Precip on the radar back around Middle TN and KY. I just thought by looking at the current radar, the precip would be outta here by 5 or 6 tops, but evidently more develops later on. Hopefully this will be the case.

by **oakridgeweather** 2012-02-19, 3:10 pm

Temperatures still not dropping in Oak Ridge..Still sitting at 42.

by **Toot** 2012-02-19, 3:18 pm

oakridgeweather wrote:Temperatures still not dropping in Oak Ridge..Still sitting at 42.

You're almost there...but dont expect too much

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 34 850mb

Newr SPS from MRX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
223 PM EST SUN FEB 19 2012

TNZ015>017-036>040-042-044-046-067>071-073-081-082-200900-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-SULLIVAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-NORTHWEST CARTER-
ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-SEQUATCHIE-
BLEDSOE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SNEEDVILLE...ROGERSVILLE...KINGSPORT...
BRISTOL...CLINTON...OAK RIDGE...MAYNARDVILLE...RUTLEDGE...
MORRISTOWN...NEWPORT...GREENEVILLE...JOHNSON CITY...
ELIZABETHTON...KINGSTON...LENOIR CITY...KNOXVILLE...DANDRIDGE...
MARYVILLE...SEVIERVILLE...DUNLAP...PIKEVILLE
223 PM EST SUN FEB 19 2012 /123 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2012/

...LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH AREAS OF
BLACK ICE DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION AS
COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. WITH WARM
GROUND TEMPERATURES AND TEMPERATURES HOVERING JUST ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...ANY SNOWFALL THIS EVENING WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME ACCUMULATING. AT THIS TIME...THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BELOW
2500 FEET IN CENTRAL EAST TENNESSEE ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE
LESS THAN AN INCH. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE MAY
SEE UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING...BUT
MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.

WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE
ROADWAYS WILL LIKELY FREEZE. MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF BLACK ICE.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL
MEDIA SOURCE...FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES ON THIS WINTER
WEATHER SITUATION.

WSW for the smokies and upper e tn and yes this includes luky andy's locale Erwin

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
205 PM EST SUN FEB 19 2012

...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH RAIN GRADUALLY
SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW IN THE VALLEYS BY SUNSET AND THEREAFTER.
THIS SNOWFALL WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-200500-
/O.CON.KMRX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120220T0500Z/
JOHNSON-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNTAIN CITY...COSBY...CEDAR CREEK...
ERWIN...ROAN MOUNTAIN...CADES COVE...GATLINBURG
205 PM EST SUN FEB 19 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...

* EVENT...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON ELEVATION...WITH
2 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE BY TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET.

* TIMING...SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME SLEET...WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...MODERATE TO HEAVY WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE WEIGHT FROM THIS WET SNOWFALL MAY DOWN SOME TREES AND
POWER LINES...CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. DRIVING MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS
TONIGHT DUE TO THE SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADWAYS.

by **AndyP** 2012-02-19, 3:25 pm

Starting to rain harder here in Erwin, I've gotta believe this is our shot at a changeover....

by **oakridgeweather** 2012-02-19, 3:31 pm

I don't even think the Oak Ridge/Knoxville will even seen a dusting..It just dropped to 41 here in Oak Ridge...Moisture doesn't look to well, and it's still in the 40s.

by **Toot** 2012-02-19, 3:32 pm

AndyP wrote:Starting to rain harder here in Erwin, I've gotta believe this is our shot at a changeover....

The Radar is looking less impressive yikes

..hopefully we get some nice back building of the comma head

by **Toot** 2012-02-19, 3:34 pm

oakridgeweather wrote:I don't even think the Oak Ridge/Knoxville will even seen a dusting..It just dropped to 41 here in Oak Ridge...Moisture doesn't look to well, and it's still in the 40s.

Its very possible that you dont...this was always mainly a Northern TN storm...if you get some on the ground then you should feel lucky with this type of winter