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Early FEB snow threat

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Tennessee Weather Spot :: Weather Discussion :: Winter Weather

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Early FEB snow threat Empty Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot 2012-01-20, 8:53 pm

Ive seen enough to be very confident in a snow in Tennessee around the end of January.....BOOK IT! evl


Last edited by Toot on 2012-01-29, 3:33 pm; edited 10 times in total
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Post by snowman72 2012-01-20, 9:27 pm

wow i hope you are right Toot because everyone else is saying nothing and showing mid 50's to near 60 for the foreseible future

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Post by Stovepipe 2012-01-21, 2:16 am

I agree with this sentiment and I would like to subscribed to it's newsletter.

hurry
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Post by Toot 2012-01-21, 3:45 am

Heres the 0z CMC iTS SNOWING BUT THIS WILL TREND ALOT MORE FAVORABLE

Early FEB snow threat F204


ENSEMBLES WILL CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON THIS THTREAT

Early FEB snow threat F168

Temp departures will aso continue to trend colder

Early FEB snow threat D10

0z FIM the trend is your friend
Early FEB snow threat 3hap_sfc_f186

HPC

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
301 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2012

VALID 12Z WED JAN 25 2012 - 12Z SAT JAN 28 2012

A SLOWLY AMPLIFYING BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULDL
FOR TROUGHING TO STICK AROUND ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND COULD LEAD TO A PORTION OF THE POLAR
VORTEX DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD
HELP TO ANCHOR THIS TROUGHING IN PLACE. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
AGREES ON THIS IDEA...EXCEPT FOR THE 00Z GFS/00Z GEFS MEAN
SOLUTIONS WHICH APPEAR TOO ZONAL WITH THE EXPECTED FLOW PATTERN
AND AT TIMES TOO FAR EAST WITH THE TROUGHING...THEIR OCCASIONAL
BIAS. EARLY ON...THE GUIDANCE WHICH SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
DETAIL-WISE BETWEEN THE 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE
SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY MID NEXT
WEEK WERE THE 00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF...SO USED A COMPROMISE OF THEIR
SOLUTIONS INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THEREAFTER...THE 12Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS SUBSTITUTED FOR THE UKMET WITHIN THE PREFERENCE
DUE TO ITS GREATER TROUGHING MID-CONTINENT AS WELL AS ITS HIGHER
VERIFICATION SCORES /ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO THE CANADIAN
MODEL/. THIS SOLUTION LED TO REASONABLE CONTINUITY.

ROTH

0Z ensemble mean and its members with a +PNA and a Negegative NAO

Early FEB snow threat F252


0Z AO forecast smartass
Early FEB snow threat Gens_ao_00


Everything is coming together Folks for a snowstorm around Jan 30

No hype here...im 2 and 0 when starting snow threads smartass


Current NAO/AO fixing to tank rock on

Early FEB snow threat Cdas_ao_nao_daily
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Post by snowman72 2012-01-21, 8:17 am

Man I sure hope you are correct, your record was great last year and I hope it continues. On a different note some good thunder storms this morning

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Post by Toot 2012-01-21, 8:24 am

snowman72 wrote:Man I sure hope you are correct, your record was great last year and I hope it continues. On a different note some good thunder storms this morning

I put my confidence level at 70 percent on a snow somewhere in TN near the end of the month. Yes nice t storms that rolled thru while it was still dark at 48 degrees here..coldest tstorm that I remember. I got a vid of it may upload it later
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Post by Toot 2012-01-21, 8:46 am

6Z GFS Right around the end of Jan first of FEB...BOOK IT SOMWHERE IN TN
Early FEB snow threat 2012012106_EUS_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_288
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Post by Guest 2012-01-21, 9:01 am

Holy cow!! If the temps would cooperate, thats a perfect Winter Storm track for East Tn according to 6z gfs.

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Post by Toot 2012-01-21, 9:53 am

6z Ensembles evl

Early FEB snow threat F204

By 0z tonight these will be snowier
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Post by tennessee storm09 2012-01-21, 10:18 am

the 6z gfs looks like a boat load of cold sloppy rain to me toot... but hopefully this can change... lot of moisture to work with, thats for sure... temps just look a tad to warm... we c later in future runs how this trends

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Post by Toot 2012-01-21, 10:28 am

tennessee storm09 wrote:the 6z gfs looks like a boat load of cold sloppy rain to me toot...


Anthing behind the 540 is snow Bruce...wipe the sleep out of ur eyes son

Early FEB snow threat 2012012106_EUS_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_288

McFly is there anyone home?
Early FEB snow threat 4d8b8017d224b.image
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Post by tennessee storm09 2012-01-21, 11:17 am

tennessee storm09 wrote:what hour are you gazing at toot

Well gahhh lee

The hour is on the graphic I posted....McFly is there anyone home?

Early FEB snow threat 4d8b8017d224b.image

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Post by Toot 2012-01-21, 12:12 pm

jmundie wrote:Toot - that's the position of the 540 at the time period mentioned, but the precip is from the 12, not 6, but 12 prior hours.

That means some of that may fall as snow, but the majority does not. In the prior frame (when all this precipitation starts falling) the 540 line is back at the Mississippi river.
Contrary to popular belief that is not correct...you have to look at the character of the storm...a commahead and only a commahead (unless its anafront) in below freezing 850s and behind a 540 thickness line is all snow during mid to Late winter...This comes from experience of watching models and knownig synoptics. The Commahead means flow out of the NW mostly (Cold Advection) and in the cold sector of a LPS. This only works in winter time at mid lattitudes tho. Climo has alot to do with. The models can only tell you so much

jmundie wrote:
If you're going to make gradiometers forecasts, you should at least learn how to read model output.
Sorry bud but you are the one reading it wrong. A coomahead is under the best upper level vortmax of any low peressure system whether that is a ULL or just a upperl level trough vort. This is called boreal winter recognition of the cold sector of extratropical cyclones.

jmundie wrote:
A helpful hint would be to look at the bufkit data. It will give you exact amounts of precipitation falling at what temperatures.


My helpful hint to you is not look at any small scale data such as buffkit QPF...850's etc until you are in 48 hrs of the storm

Dont make me show you again on how you can have two cold fronts in the same trough of low pressure mundie. console


Last edited by Toot on 2012-01-21, 12:43 pm; edited 7 times in total
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Post by tennessee storm09 2012-01-21, 12:27 pm

there seems to be a possible over running event around 240hr. on the 12zgfs...looks kind of interesting... course its beyond truncation period.

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Post by Snowmania 2012-01-21, 12:41 pm

Cold chasing rain with backside snow, how often does that work out? not to mention its in fantasy range...toots really going out on an edge here, i hope he's right but this thread looks incredibly premature

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Post by Toot 2012-01-21, 12:46 pm

Snowmania wrote:Cold chasing rain with backside snow, how often does that work out? not to mention its in fantasy range...toots really going out on an edge here, i hope he's right but this thread looks incredibly premature
My record speaks for itself...that image i post above is pure comma head snow. You can diasagree if you want to but your wrong and im sure John would agree with me...You cant just look at models you have to have years of experience at climo and storm behaivor during boreal winter. Guidance data is just 50% of accurate meteorology.

I started the last thread 15 days before it verified evl
This is the third thread that I have started for a snow threat this winter. I am currently 2 and 0 which is a 100% verification rate. Im very conident in this threat
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Post by Snowmania 2012-01-21, 1:19 pm

On the last storm, If i remember correctly you gave yourself a nice 5 day range then edited it down to 3 once the storm got closer. And If I am not mistaken you predicted a negative nao values to follow the storm among other wild things. I dont have time to scroll through prior threads but I dont think the "storm" was originally modelled as an ULL....but hey, this is the weather right...its all about how you spin it

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Post by Guest 2012-01-21, 1:22 pm

Snowmania wrote:On the last storm, If i remember correctly you gave yourself a nice 5 day range then edited it down to 3 once the storm got closer. And If I am not mistaken you predicted a negative nao values to follow the storm among other wild things. I dont have time to scroll through prior threads but I dont think the "storm" was originally modelled as an ULL....but hey, this is the weather right...its all about how you spin it

facepalm

Please, a little more respect self-called alternate version of 'tom23'. Come on man lol. He's 2-0

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Post by Snowmania 2012-01-21, 1:23 pm

Damn, he might just go undefeated this year

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Post by Toot 2012-01-21, 1:24 pm

Snowmania wrote:On the last storm, If i remember correctly you gave yourself a nice 5 day range then edited it down to 3 once the storm got closer. And If I am not mistaken you predicted a negative nao values to follow the storm among other wild things. I dont have time to scroll through prior threads but I dont think the "storm" was originally modelled as an ULL....but hey, this is the weather right...its all about how you spin it

I have no idea what your talking about...provide some proof please? A statement like that needs to be backed up? Because I truly did not say any of that. Please start another thread about this also if you think you have proof.
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Post by Guest 2012-01-21, 1:25 pm

Snowmania wrote:Damn, he might just go undefeated this year

He very may well, especially if others don't try to make any forecasts.

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Post by ballpark 2012-01-21, 1:29 pm

I think we our getting lineup for several winter storms towards the end the month and next month. I am on board toot.

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Post by Guest 2012-01-21, 1:31 pm

Snowmania
Tell me this.. are you a member of tnwx?? A little off topic, sure, but I'm just curious. Nothing at all to do with this convo.

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Post by Snowmania 2012-01-21, 1:34 pm

No PT, I am a member of American Wx

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Post by Toot 2012-01-21, 1:36 pm

Snowmania wrote:No PT, I am a member of American Wx


Lol what?
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