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Early FEB snow threat

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Guest on 2012-01-21, 1:37 pm

Snowmania wrote:No PT, I am a member of American Wx

Interesting.. thanks for the quick and prompt answer.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Guest on 2012-01-21, 1:37 pm

Toot wrote:
Snowmania wrote:No PT, I am a member of American Wx


Lol what?

P.T. stands for Probated Tom... LOL


Last edited by Probated Tom on 2012-01-21, 1:41 pm; edited 5 times in total

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-21, 1:39 pm

American wx is the worse forum in the nation nothing but weenies and old farts...There are a few over there that know their shit though. That said its still a horrible forum

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Guest on 2012-01-21, 1:43 pm

Toot wrote:American wx is the worse forum in the nation nothing but weenies and old farts...There are a few over there that know their shit though. That said its still a horrible forum

They... *sniff sniff*... made fun of me over there... the HORROR... the HORROR.. lmao

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Guest on 2012-01-21, 1:46 pm

Snowmania wrote:Toot, Why do you keep deleting my posts? I just showed you evidence of your constant editing..I can show you alot more. A fact isn't a flame

May as well go ahead and join the party of changing your name to 'Probated' Snowmania.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-21, 1:49 pm

STOP POSTING STUPID SHIT IN THIS THREAD TAKE IT TO THE CORRECT SECTION OF THE FORUM

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by John1122 on 2012-01-21, 3:01 pm

While I don't trust anything the models are showing beyond 120 hours right now, that is a fairly favorable track for snowfall here. HP to the north, storm track south of us.

Verbatim off that map, it could go either way. The 850/700mb line is in the "all type of precip possible" range and the 850s and 540 are borderline.

That said, give me that storm track and I'll take my chances in late January.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-21, 3:08 pm

Yep that stormtack is a major producer of UL enhanced snow... Ala The Bluegrass runner of lAST WINTER evl

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Guest on 2012-01-21, 3:13 pm

jmundie wrote:
Toot wrote:American wx is the worse forum in the nation nothing but weenies and old farts...There are a few over there that know their shit though. That said its still a horrible forum

Congrats toot! This is literally the dumbest thing you've ever said.

Why are people bagging on Toot today??

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Guest on 2012-01-21, 3:30 pm

jmundie wrote:Seems like someone is jealous because they've been banned on every weather forum they've ever been a part of... But I'm sure it's just them, and not you hyping stuff based on hopes and dreams

J, please cool it. Go think about unicorns and nice things. Whatever it takes to get you off of Toot's back. Besides, Toot does have power to, erm, suspend you(or worse).

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-21, 3:33 pm

jmundie wrote:Seems like someone is jealous because they've been banned on every weather forum they've ever been a part of... But I'm sure it's just them, and not you hyping stuff based on hopes and dreams

I have an account at TalkWX I have an account at Storm2k and I have an account here. Ive only been banned from accuwx and suspended from TW but I had American wx remove my account by my own request. Beacause I couldnt put op with the wishcasting weenies..Now for the last time in this thread... I ask this time please try to stay on topic.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-21, 3:34 pm

This thread is for talking about a possible event at the end of the month. It's ok if you don't believe one is coming, post why you think that. But keep the drama and other stuff out of this thread, especially the personal digs. Go wild over in the members section if you want.
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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by skillsweather on 2012-01-21, 3:36 pm

I bet it snows somewere in Tennessee tonight. Tomorrow and tomorrow night. We have mountains in Tennessee and its winter time so it basically snows in Tennessee every day during the winter on the highest of mountains we have.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-21, 3:46 pm

Continue the bitching in crying in the random thread thats were I moved those knee jerk posts at

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-21, 3:57 pm

12z ensembles

rock on


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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by jmundie on 2012-01-21, 5:14 pm

Unfortunately - we won't have any idea how anything will pan out before we can get some agreement on this ull. Just like the last one, if it can catch the northern stream, we could be looking at a great system, and once that can drag down some significant cold behind it. But if its too early, a la, the system two weeks ago, we get a boatload of rain and a transient cold shot.

And just so we're clear, just because there is a comma head on a low pressure does not mean that there's snow on the backside. It may be on the cold side of the low, but if there's not enough cold air, it doesn't matter.

The euro today is a great example of this. Nice comma head, but the phase occurs too late for it to matter for anyone in Tennessee (except maybe the mountains, who will get a token inch or two of nw flow.... maybe



I would love to see the timing be perfect with this thing. Hopefully we get some better data ingestion from the planes today so the models can get a better sense of what we're dealing with. Obviously, you are gonna have some ensemble members that support the timing being right, and others that clearly don't. Best I can tell, 3 of those ensemble members might yield some frozen precipitation, but the others obviously don't. Before I jump on board, I'd like to see at least half of them with a similar snow/frozen solution.

And if you believe a "guarantee" that there will be snow one and a half to two weeks out, when the models haven't even figured out what's going to happen in 6 days, I've got some oceanfront property to sell you in Oklahoma.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-21, 9:28 pm

jmundie wrote:
And just so we're clear, just because there is a comma head on a low pressure does not mean that there's snow on the backside. It may be on the cold side of the low, but if there's not enough cold air, it doesn't matter.
Mundie the comma head in question was inside the 540 thickness line and below zero 850's You and I both know thats snow....If this is brought up again im going to get pissed. There's room for debate here as long as it makes sense. You are not making any sense. Try me..... I promise you I will dig up some links and when im right in black in white I willl ban your ass for trolling


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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-21, 9:45 pm

Feb1st NEG NAO and arctic outbrek which supports the title of this thread whistle


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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by snowman72 on 2012-01-21, 9:51 pm

What are u seeing Toot? None of the local mets are picking up on what your saying yet. For me I have faith

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-21, 9:54 pm

Look above and notice all the lower heights.....Im very conifident that this will have a southern stream system to work with. This is the best chance all winter to have a nice snowstorm

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-22, 8:22 am

0z euro



wash

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-22, 8:22 am

0z euro



wash

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-22, 1:56 pm

Robert on 12z euro

euro has a nice neg. tilt trough in GA Friday night, but isn't as cold in the Apps so no snow for the mtns, compared with GFS . Its a nice rain maker from Texas, east. Meanwhile it shows a pretty strong ridge developing out west, so the cold is pushing down, but hasn't phased in with the southeast storm as of 132.

still close enough for aphase, very close, so something for the Apps and on northeastward to watch for. If the cutoff moves a little slower, and the cold comes in a few hours faster it would be a big snowstorm from the Apps to northeast coast. Nice cold dump coming in afterwards, atleast seasonable for late Jan.

The key to what happens is going to be that cutoff and if it phases or not, and how perfectly. Its very close to doing so as the surface low comes into central NC and its strengthening on its trip up the east coast to eastern Canada. Meanwhile a nice ridge is building offshore the west, similar to GFS a few days ago (whereas ecmwf was diging a trough there), but now the next strong s/w is dropping down the western ridge in the Rockies. Could be a fun run.
at 180, the ecmwf has the eastern Canada storm not quite as wrapped up or as strong , yet it has a very strong western ridge, with a s/w dropping into the Rockies. That is going to be the next system to watch. If the eastern Canada vortex wraps up strongly, that could offer a southern track for the next system, with winter precip north of the track. Looks like euro is gong to develop it in the plains, which is more north than GFS. Yet overall this run went more toward GFS in the overall flow, imo.

I have a strong suspicion the ecmwf is in error with its two lows in the Atlantic and Canada at 192, and its consequently too far north in the plains with its next system.

at 204, its pretty cold (seasonable) from NC west to the Plains with an inverted trough from the Lakes to the Gulf. Precip along this region. There's definite potential here, and the model is having a hard time with the eastern Canada vortex I think. The good news is the western ridge now, which has been off and on feature on this model, so obviously the model is having some issues. Think GFS has been more consistent on the western ridge/eastern trough idea. What happens to how much phasing the northeast system becomes will be a big, big factor on what happens with the next wave. Things like that have been pretty good winter storms for NC, northward in the past, however I wouldn't bank on it yet. So many things are going on, but the trend is atleast more winter like and there's no big southeast ridge, unlike past runs.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by jmundie on 2012-01-22, 2:17 pm

Again - its all about the timing of the ull which the models are still in disagreement about. Probably won't get a good consensus before this severe threat today is over with.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-22, 2:22 pm

jmundie wrote: Probably won't get a good consensus before this severe threat today is over with.
Ya we know...ive been saying this for a week now

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