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Winter 2012 last Chance

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by John1122 on 2012-03-04, 7:24 pm

My zone forecast, which is actually written by the mets vs the computer generated point forecasts.

Tonight...Snow showers likely in the evening...then snow showers after midnight. Brisk. Snow accumulation up to 2 inches. Lows around 30. West winds 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 35 mph after midnight. Chance of snow 80 percent.

Monday...Decreasing clouds. Scattered snow showers in the morning and early afternoon. Breezy. Snow accumulation around 1 inch. Total snow accumulation 1 to 3 inches. Highs in the lower to mid 40s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to around 35 mph decreasing to 5 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of snow 50 percent.

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by oakridgeweather on 2012-03-04, 7:25 pm

John1122 wrote:The temps are dropping nicely across most of the area. I'm down to 36.7 already. Most observation stations seems to be between 40-42 expect for Oak Ridge, which is for some reason at 46.
Yeah its 47 here at my home in Oak Ridge still!! Why is that?! Uhg..it's ALWAYS warmer here in Oak Ridge and i dont know why..

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by John1122 on 2012-03-04, 7:26 pm

Reb, this is your zone forecast written by the mets at MRX.

Tonight...Mostly cloudy. Snow showers likely with a chance of rain showers in the evening...then snow showers likely after midnight. Breezy. Snow accumulation up to 2 inches possible. Lows in the lower to mid 30s. Southwest winds 10 mph or less increasing to 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 35 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Monday...Decreasing clouds. A 40 percent chance of snow showers in the morning and early afternoon. Breezy. Highs in the lower to mid 40s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to around 35 mph decreasing to 5 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Toot on 2012-03-04, 7:26 pm

I could be wrong but I think the central/northern valley needs a WWA... in Morristown its already 38 degrees and there is gonna be some moderate to heavy snow falling late tonight and tomorrow morning with temps dropping below freezing. I like about 3-6 in the smokies 2-5 in the Northern Plateau counties and 1-3 in the central and northern valley.

As the onset of night is already happening with temps in 30's to near 40 this is probably not gonna start as rain like I once thought. The last time I looked at the HR it showed about 3 different bursts of moderate snow. Would like to hear what Math Met has to say about this one? popcorn


Last edited by Toot on 2012-03-04, 7:32 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Reb on 2012-03-04, 7:28 pm

just refreshed my 7 day nws forecast and the temp dropped from 45 to 42. come on baby!

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by oakridgeweather on 2012-03-04, 7:31 pm

Just dropped to 44 here in Oak Ridge. Wow

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by John1122 on 2012-03-04, 7:31 pm

oakridgeweather wrote:
John1122 wrote:The temps are dropping nicely across most of the area. I'm down to 36.7 already. Most observation stations seems to be between 40-42 expect for Oak Ridge, which is for some reason at 46.
Yeah its 47 here at my home in Oak Ridge still!! Why is that?! Uhg..it's ALWAYS warmer here in Oak Ridge and i dont know why..

Oak Ridge is the lowest elevation reporting site in the area and there is a fair amount of pavement there. Oak Ridge is also closer to the plateau and gets some downsloping winds which can compress and warm the air a bit.

Overall on most occasions it's pretty close to TYS temp wise, but tonight it's about 5 degrees warmer.

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by oakridgeweather on 2012-03-04, 7:52 pm

Still sitting at 44 in OR. But at my house in Northwest Knox county it is 42..

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-03-04, 8:01 pm

Yeah I can't sign off on this one until I see a patented Math/Met Snowgram post. Can we haz bufkitz MM?

hurry
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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Reb on 2012-03-04, 8:18 pm

anndddd down to 40 at TYS. looks like all snow IYAM

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by connerconner on 2012-03-04, 8:28 pm

when is most of the snow expected to fall? deciding if I want to stay up late or not Sleep

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Toot on 2012-03-04, 8:31 pm

connerconner wrote:when is most of the snow expected to fall? deciding if I want to stay up late or not Sleep


After midnight while you're asleep Razz


Last edited by Toot on 2012-03-04, 8:41 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Math/Met on 2012-03-04, 8:34 pm

Stovepipe wrote:Yeah I can't sign off on this one until I see a patented Math/Met Snowgram post. Can we haz bufkitz MM?

hurry

Here you go.

TRI GFS


TRI NAM


TYS GFS



Since we try to keep a positive outlook on this site, I won’t bother with the NAM output for Knoxville.

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-03-04, 8:53 pm

Thanks Math/Met, bracing for a stout dusting here!
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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by oakridgeweather on 2012-03-04, 9:34 pm

WTH! Temp is now 45 in Oak Ridge..and now it's 44 at my home in Powell...Why is the temp is rising?!!? Why is it 40 degrees out in alcoa/maryville?! this doesn't make any sense?!?!

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Reb on 2012-03-04, 9:36 pm

39 on my back porch in maryville rock on

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by oakridgeweather on 2012-03-04, 9:38 pm

Reb wrote:39 on my back porch in maryville rock on
That is CRAZY! LOL I just don't understand why there is such a BIG range..Still sitting here at 45 in OR and 44 in powell..

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Toot on 2012-03-04, 9:44 pm

37 here in Morristown with clouds thin enough to see the moon and stars rock on

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Math/Met on 2012-03-04, 9:46 pm

36 here.

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Toot on 2012-03-04, 10:35 pm

Latest shorter range models have shifted the heavier precip further north and the HR is pretty far north...so this will be one of those the further north you are the better you will do.

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by oakridgeweather on 2012-03-04, 10:48 pm

The temp. has risen AGAIN in OR, up to 46 now...

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Toot on 2012-03-04, 10:50 pm

oakridgeweather wrote:The temp. has risen AGAIN in OR, up to 46 now...

south to southwest winds is causing your warming.

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by AndyP on 2012-03-04, 10:53 pm

Trying to wait up to see if that green blob produces any good snow rates here in Erwin. I hope we get a little snow out of these.... Sleep
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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by oakridgeweather on 2012-03-04, 10:53 pm

Toot wrote:
oakridgeweather wrote:The temp. has risen AGAIN in OR, up to 46 now...

south to southwest winds is causing your warming.
Now back down to 45..Winds are coming out of the SW at 5 MPH here.

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-03-04, 10:55 pm

Balmy 41 down in west knox. Really doubt much happens in this neck of the woods. May have to dust off my windshield in the morning though.
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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

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