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May Severe Weather

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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-03-30, 8:47 pm

funny how we have been talkling about this stubborn weather patter... like andy n toot n i have been talking about.. accuweather s senior met. jack boston says this pattern will break by mid april... we see, he suppose to be a long range guru of some sort... he is saying the tornadoes will pick up big time. maybe someone can post this over from accuweather. guess we will see...

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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by andyhb on 2012-03-30, 9:31 pm

Accuweather always posts bullish nonsense, although might be a bit different long range wise, but I know Henry Margusity often posts some of the most overblown severe wx forecasts on the planet.

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PDS Tornado Watch 235 Probabilities (AL/MS/GA/TN on April 27th, 2011)
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes High (>95%)
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots High (>95%)
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches High (>95%)
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%)
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April 3-5 possible Severe Storms.

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-04-01, 8:23 am



Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
531 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-021045-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
531 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE LARGE
HAIL AND OR STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND EAST OF NASHVILLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE NORTHERN PLATEAU HAS THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

EVEN THOUGH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND
ISOLATED, SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO CALL IN ANYTHING REACHING REPORTING
CRITERIA.



Last edited by Vanster67 on 2012-04-03, 7:37 am; edited 1 time in total
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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-04-01, 8:30 am

You all are in the bullseye over there, watch out for VERY LARGE HAIL!

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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-04-01, 10:26 am

Lookout NE TN..... this MCS could be quite strong by the time it gets to our neck of the woods

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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by Math/Met on 2012-04-01, 2:41 pm




MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0406
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 PM CDT SUN APR 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...WRN NC...EXTREME NWRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 011831Z - 012000Z

STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF TN INTO
EXTREME WRN NC WHERE LATEST OA FIELDS SUGGEST SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES
ARE IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM. VIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS DEEPENING
BOUNDARY LAYER PER AN EXPANDING CU FIELD SOUTH-WEST OF DECAYING KY
MCS. ALTHOUGH THIS MCS HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL SOON DEVELOP ALONG THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF THE THICKER CLOUD CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS WITHIN
AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST NWLY FLOW/SHEAR...CERTAINLY
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE TSTM WATCH.

..DARROW.. 04/01/2012


ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...


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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by Homemommy on 2012-04-02, 4:42 pm

Oooh. I tink we gettin a funderstorm. All gray and yucky looking.

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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by Homemommy on 2012-04-02, 5:20 pm

Homemommy wrote:Oooh. I tink we gettin a funderstorm. All gray and yucky looking.

Yep. 2 of my neighbors were out mowing their yard and we had a big thunder clap and they went running. lol, that was funny. Lots of loud thunder and it's wind'n hard.

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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-04-02, 5:58 pm

This thing is just sitting on Knox county not really moving much. The cell seems to be back building over to my area. Getting wind and fundering now.
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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-04-02, 6:54 pm

Lol at the avatars...lol

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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by Homemommy on 2012-04-02, 7:24 pm

Toot wrote:Lol at the avatars...lol

Wow. A double lol from Toot. That means it's super funny. Yay!

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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-04-02, 8:30 pm

looks like a decent organzied mcs heading towards sw tennesssee later tonight... if it holds together... as some upper level energy passes by west tn later wed. there is enough shear and directional shear to produce a iso tornado threat... this pattern seems to be breaking as we head into next week.

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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-04-02, 8:30 pm

Homemommy wrote:
Wow. A double lol from Toot. That means it's super funny. Yay!


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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-04-02, 9:21 pm

I'll buy you two rounds of drinks Toot if you make Tommy Lee Jones' head in that pic your avatar. I'll even shop it for you.

popcorn
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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-04-02, 9:23 pm

No problemo...where is the shop?...lol

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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-04-02, 9:26 pm



rock on
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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-04-03, 7:39 am

...TN/MS/AL/GA/SC...
THIS OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR A LARGE AREA
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO
TN/GA/SC. STRONG HEATING WILL LEAD TO AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER A
LARGE AREA...BUT VERY WEAK TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL FAVOR
MULTICELLULAR/PULSE-TYPE STORMS. THE LACK OF A FOCUSED AREA OF
CONCERN PRECLUDES HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND THE NEED FOR A
CATEGORICAL RISK AT THIS TIME.
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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-04-03, 7:46 am

No Problemo Dude!! Very Happy


Last edited by Vanster67 on 2012-04-03, 7:56 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : its a secret...)

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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-04-03, 8:03 am

The latest Tor-Con from Dr. Forbes has west, middle TN at a 2 for today, with west TN at a 4 Tomorrow.
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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-04-03, 8:23 am

Lol a 4 is way higher then I would think. But they are the experts!

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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-04-03, 8:51 am

Experts are sometimes wrong. Sometimes... yikes
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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by BethD on 2012-04-03, 3:51 pm

I just read where Twin Tornadoes hit the Dallas-Ft. Worth area. They said Dallas is in an Tornado Emergency right now. Several homes have been destroyed. I think it just happened so I haven't heard reports of any casualties. Praying that several of my friends in that area are okay. Sad
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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by Homemommy on 2012-04-03, 3:53 pm

BethD wrote:I just read where Twin Tornadoes hit the Dallas-Ft. Worth area. They said Dallas is in an Tornado Emergency right now. Several homes have been destroyed. I think it just happened so I haven't heard reports of any casualties. Praying that several of my friends in that area are okay. Sad

Oh, man. Terrible. I hope your friends are o.k. flower

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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by Toot on 2012-04-03, 4:09 pm

Clear Hook echoes (With possible debree balls) on those beasts that went through the Dallas fort Worth area yikes


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Re: May Severe Weather

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-04-03, 4:50 pm

I did not know that there was such an elevated risk for tornadoes in Texas today. We might need to take another look at this system.

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Re: May Severe Weather

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