Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

by **Toot** 2012-06-30, 1:36 pm

It should begin to get more typical starting tomorrow with rain and thunderstorms in the area...possibly later tonight in northeastern areas of TN as a possible MCS clips that area.

I believe Sunday or Monday will be the last day of highs in the triple digits around here for a while but the 90's are still pretty warm..lol

Looks like a pretty moist NW Flow gets going early in the period and then that gets get replaced by an onshore easterly flow as we get closer to the mid range.

We might get a couple of those strong MCS's in the NW flow and should be plenty of pop up storms in the onshore flow.

by **Toot** 2012-06-30, 1:44 pm

Robert (AKA FoothillsWX) Just posted this on FB..Pretty interesting

Synoptically, I'm not liking the looks of late Wednesday afternoon and night in the East. Anywhere from eastern Ohio Valley, Apps and the East Coast, for what the GFS is doing to a strong trough (splitting it). At the least, strong divergence and all the heat energy will offer up another chance at a MAJOR MCC (or worse) as far as organized cluster of storms. Same areas that have been hit, and again today, and again next couple of days, may do it again in a big way on Wednesday.

Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 8 545535_467861223243938_2099317885_n

by **WxFreak** 2012-06-30, 2:32 pm

It wouldn't surprise me to see several rounds of these, and at least the eastern part of Tennessee will be in line to be clipped by any MCS that forms once this upper level HP retrogrades westward.

This heat is like high octane fuel, and any disturbance that rolls southeast is like throwing a match right into it.

by **snowdog** 2012-06-30, 3:43 pm

Bastardi spreading a little hope on his twitter page...hope he is right. sneaky

Weatherbell post last night shows which nino summers and why are hot. Maturation of nino in summer means hottest may be now for plains/east

Unlike 10,11, worst of summer heat this year may be BEFORE the 4th, not after

by **windstorm** 2012-06-30, 4:19 pm

At 4:00 P.M. today it is 105 in Chattanooga. 106 yesterday. Don"t see why it want hit 106 or more today.

by **Toot** 2012-06-30, 4:42 pm

So close... yet so far away..lol

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1321
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 302027Z - 302300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD FORM WITHIN A HOT/DEEPLY-MIXED AIR MASS FROM PARTS OF ERN KY TO WRN VA. ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE...POTENTIAL FOR CLUSTERING AMIDST MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER W/NWLYS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND EVENTS THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...GROWING CU WAS NOTED FROM ERN KY TO WRN VA IN RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITHIN A HOT AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 102. ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE LARGELY MIXED INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S...MODIFIED 18Z IAD RAOB AND PREVIOUS GENERATION RUC VERSION OF SFCOA WOULD SUPPORT MODERATE BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2500 J/KG.

DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR WAS STRONG IN THE 18Z IAD RAOB IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK IMPULSE PROGRESSING ACROSS ERN PA INTO NJ. ALTHOUGH FLOW WEAKENS SOMEWHAT WITH SLY EXTENT...IT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. GIVEN THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CONGLOMERATION OF COLD POOLS SHOULD FAVOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS. PRIMARY RISK WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS.

Maybe some of us can get in on this..well have to watch beer

Anyways most of East TN under a slight risk tomorrow popcorn

Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 8 Day2otlk_1730

by **windstorm** 2012-06-30, 5:20 pm

I hope so. It now 106 at 5:00 p.m. Two days in a row. Thursday it was 103. I put a bucket under my AC outside to collect water for my garden. Maybe as the high sides west it will allow a NW flow and get some rain. I was reading Nashville long range forecast and they seem to think the high will side back to the west but by next weekend may move east once more with 100 plus degree temps. But this is a good week out so we can hope it will not happen again. Enough of these 100 plus degree days .. Bring on fall... torch

by **Toot** 2012-06-30, 5:57 pm

windstorm wrote:I hope so. It now 106 at 5:00 p.m. Two days in a row. Thursday it was 103. I put a bucket under my AC outside to collect water for my garden. Maybe as the high sides west it will allow a NW flow and get some rain. I was reading Nashville long range forecast and they seem to think the high will side back to the west but by next weekend may move east once more with 100 plus degree temps. But this is a good week out so we can hope it will not happen again. Enough of these 100 plus degree days .. Bring on fall...

I support this post...63 days until September..lol pals

by **windstorm** 2012-06-30, 8:46 pm

All time record high in Chattanooga i think. 107 today.

by **windstorm** 2012-06-30, 8:53 pm

if this don't belong on here please remove. thanks http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MRX&product=PNS&issuedby=MRX

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-06-30, 11:26 pm

larry cosgrove just offered some hope in the near future... saying elnino is coming... after july the 6th or so... pattern shifts to a nw flow allowing more mcs activity and also allowing more cold fronts to make it through our area... even said some of the cold fronts could pack a punch... makes a lot of sense... i really still think the second half of summer will be wetter n cooler than average... wash

by **Toot** 2012-06-30, 11:38 pm

One thing's for sure...its not gonna get any hotter than what we just witnessed the rest of summer Razz

by **WxFreak** 2012-07-01, 7:51 am

Looks like today will be the last 100+ day, with highs predicted to be 100-105F over the area. Of course, personally, I can't feel the difference between 100 and the 99F predicted for Monday, but I digress.

by **windstorm** 2012-07-01, 9:29 am

Chattanooga today from NWS says 102 - 106. Monday 98 - 101. Monday should be the last 100 degree day for at least a while. And am hoping for the rest of the year. But upper 90's is not a cold spell or time to put your coat on. Still hot. But with 90 plus degree weather it will help my AC out a little instead of running 12 hours a day. And then there is another very very small plus. Each day that goes by the sun raises just a little bit later each day. Not much help but it's a start. Am not saying that it can't get 100 plus in July, August, September. Just saying. Thanks... torch

by **WxFreak** 2012-07-01, 9:36 am

Morning update from JKL:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
856 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

ISSUED AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT MCS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY SAGGING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. SO RAISED POPS TO LIKELY OVER THIS AREA GIVEN THE STILL SPOTTY NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. ALSO ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH AS THE SUDDEN HIT THIS AREA TOOK FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PUT A DENT IN THE OPPRESSIVE TEMPERATURES TODAY. BEEFED UP POPS THIS AFTERNOON AT LEAST CHANCE AS WELL. THE CONCERN HERE IS THAT CURRENT SURFACE MAP HAS A GENERAL SOUTHWARD JOG OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND WITH IT STILL BEING EARLY IN THE MORNING AND ANOTHER MCS OVER WESTERN IL...IT COULD BE AN ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY.

Any convection that forms in Southeast KY will likely sag southeast as the afternoon and evening progresses. At least this gives northeast TN a better shot at seeing some precipitation today.

by **WxFreak** 2012-07-01, 10:21 am

Weakening gust front heading south into TN from the small MCS that's currently heading into VA. Maybe it will help pop a few storms for us somewhere today. Prob wishful thinkin', but gotta have hope. Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 8 1711635108

Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 8 1711635108

by **Toot** 2012-07-01, 11:56 am

Models show a large increase in gulf moisture around the west side of the anticyclone. Most models are probably a little too wet.. but some of us should get in on the rain/T-storms this afternoon and evening. Looks like there's gonna be a damn bomb go off in the Carolina coastal plain...surface based cape is off the freakin charts yikes

by **Toot** 2012-07-01, 2:28 pm

Here we go..The makings of what COULD be another Derecho is forming upstream. This MCS's track looks a little further west and south of the last one. This could put NE TN under the gun...but as always with meso stuff...just have to see how it plays out

Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 8 Anim_nerc

Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 8 Anim_nerc

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-07-01, 2:45 pm

Toot wrote:Models show a large increase in gulf moisture around the west side of the anticyclone. Most models are probably a little too wet.. but some of us should get in on the rain/T-storms this afternoon and evening. Looks like there's gonna be a damn bomb go off in the Carolina coastal plain...surface based cape is off the freakin charts

that is a understatement to say the least ,,,cape well over 8,000 in parts of south carolina.

by **Toot** 2012-07-01, 5:17 pm

Friends...there is an MCC/MCS thats coming together near the Kentucky and Indiana border

Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 8 2nkiaty

This one could definately cause some trouble for us. Its forecasted by 18z HRRR reflectivity to become an intense bow echo.

This is max reflectivity an this might be a little overdone but I think you can get the picture of what might be a damaging wind event unfolding

Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 8 28hesnb

Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 8 28hesnb

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-07-01, 5:22 pm

Toot wrote:Friends...there is an MCC/MCS thats coming together near the Kentucky and Indiana border

This one could definately cause some trouble for us. Its forecasted by 18z HRRR reflectivity to become an intense bow echo.

This is max reflectivity an this might be a little overdone but I think you can get the picture of what might be a damaging wind event unfolding

i have a feeling that complex will play out around sunset... hope you folks in east tn can cash in on this... but i think she dies out... not enough ump to drive this thing... we see if latest short range is on to something

by **WxFreak** 2012-07-01, 6:37 pm

FINALLY!!! RAIN in the Valley!

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
633 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
ANDERSON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
KNOX COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
ROANE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 715 PM EDT

* AT 631 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OLIVER SPRINGS...OR 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF OAK RIDGE...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
OAK RIDGE...OLIVER SPRINGS AND KARNS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

by **WxFreak** 2012-07-01, 6:45 pm

These storms are pretty small, and probably of the pulse type that won't last long...but hey, it's a start. First bit of action in our area in a LONG time.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-07-01, 7:08 pm

hopefully the upper ridge of high pressure wll retreat enough back west far enough to allow us to get into a nw flow of some sort... that would allow us to get into some mcs type systems... models want to try doing that mid week... but by the end of the week ridge wants to redevelop and here we go again... torch

by **Toot** 2012-07-01, 7:16 pm

Here is the first watch with the complex ive been talking about. Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 8 Ww0448_radar_big

The HR is adamant on this one visiting alot of east TN and right now if you look closely at the right radar you will see a gust front/outflow boundary that will drive this into eastern TN

SVR threat should continue downstream from this. The more north you are the better the likelyhood you see this.

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