Summer 2012 WX Discussion

jmundie wrote:

Looks like we'll have a nice fall pattern setting up in late august if this continues. I'll take it.

I cant wait Mundie...cold fronts will only get stronger from here on out

Concerning tomorrows SVR weather..the NAM/WRF doesnt look like much here in east TN. By the time anything starts to pop we lose daytime heating. Mesocale features are not picked up that great by models...so I wouldnt exactly trust them. As it gets closer to dark storms could fire...well see..but it would be spotty at best.. like Freak said.

Toot wrote:

jmundie wrote:

Looks like we'll have a nice fall pattern setting up in late august if this continues. I'll take it.

I cant wait Mundie...cold fronts will only get stronger from here on out

I hope we start seeing some signs of El Nino affecting the weather pattern soon--as in needed rain for the Plains and Southeast. It's been a horrible year for farmers in over half of the U.S. I dread my grocery bill this winter.

As it gets closer to fall and the jet starts to migrate southward the wx becomes more active and I begin to do more forecasts.. because its more interesting to me.

Looking at some fresh 18z data..the southern sections of the eastern half of the state and into northern areas of GA and AL will have a pretty decent chance at some severe tomorrow. There also looks to be a possibility of a rather weak MCS in central sections of the state tonight.

Here is my thoughts for tomorrow..shear will be lacking so the tornado threat is very low. Main impacts will be strong winds and medium size hail. Enjoy..lol

meso out for me now... microburst and wind damage... bring it. im ready for something

tennessee storm09 wrote:meso out for me now... microburst and wind damage... bring it. im ready for something

Its about time yall get in..lol


Anyways..after this weekend heights begin to fall in the eastern half of the nation with cooler temps showing up by monday night. Ahhh the first hint of the coming fall weather...Cant wait!!

Toot wrote:

tennessee storm09 wrote:meso out for me now... microburst and wind damage... bring it. im ready for something

Its about time yall get in..lol


Anyways..after this weekend heights begin to fall in the eastern half of the nation with cooler temps showing up by monday night. Ahhh the first hint of the coming fall weather...Cant wait!!

yep, i had my eye on that bout week or so now... i really like the chances for fall coming early this year

Line segment near NW TN starting to bow out...Batten down the hatches!!

Toot wrote:Line segment near NW TN starting to bow out...Batten down the hatches!!

line seems to be holding togeter nicely toot.

tennessee storm09 wrote:

Toot wrote:

tennessee storm09 wrote:meso out for me now... microburst and wind damage... bring it. im ready for something

Its about time yall get in..lol


Anyways..after this weekend heights begin to fall in the eastern half of the nation with cooler temps showing up by monday night. Ahhh the first hint of the coming fall weather...Cant wait!!

yep, i had my eye on that bout week or so now... i really like the chances for fall coming early this year

Looks like storms are losing their punch as the loss of daytime heating is occuring. Im interested in seeing SPC's update on tomorrows outlook in the morning. Its been a long hot day at work and I have to hit it again at the crack of dawn.

Toot wrote:Looks like storms are losing their punch as the loss of daytime heating is occuring. Im interested in seeing SPC's update on tomorrows outlook in the morning. Its been a long hot day at work and I have to hit it again at the crack of dawn.

also down on the south flank of the storms... gust front has developed in front of the main storms, that will tendto tame them down a bit... o well, just give me rain i be happy

No storms for me, this is

In regards to this afternoons potential storms, the NAM shows a thin line forming and moving through while the HRRR and the WRF show some small unorganized convection peppering the area briefly before moving out. While I'd normally love to see some storms, this pleases me as I'd rather not have to deal with anything crazy while setting up the camper this evening. Crossing fingers the Norris area avoids the high winds.





Edit: MRX

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD ORGANIZE THESE STORMS INTO A LINE OF STORMS
THAT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MOSTLY NON-SEVERE...BUT SOME STORMS MIGHT HAVE SOME DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OVER 60 MPH. IF THE STORMS FORM INTO AN ORGANIZED LINE...THEN
SEVERE WIND GUSTS WOULD BE MORE COMMON. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.

The airmass has been very tropical like today. Had a non severe thunderstorm here..with GOBS of rain..lol

Then the humidity sky rockets after its over.



Anyways...the nam is really flexing that 594 DM desert making beast of a subtropical ridge in the central U.S on sunday.



I'll be glad to see that bad boy leave for good.

Tornado Warning on the storm West of Paducah, Kentucky. That cold front has really packed a punch in some of those areas for the past couple of days. I really don't expect much in the way of storms as it enters our area.

For the most part we have had a cooler then normal summer despite that freak heat wave we had. I really wish we could get this monster high pressure system out and get some real storm system moving in.

Adam2014 wrote: That cold front has really packed a punch in some of those areas for the past couple of days.

Yep it certainly has. Its sort of odd to have heights lowering this time of year bringing a cooler airmass into the region. The jet stream seems to be slipping away little by little from the polar regions early this summer.

It wouldnt surprise me to see a stronger cold front in mid to late august with the brunt of the SVR weather in the SE and Mid Atlantic regions instead of the OH Valley/NE.

From my FB blog

The stubborn subtropical ridge is very hesitant to leave anytime soon. Places out in the central U.S are roasting and will continue to for a while.

The heat ridge will set up another ring of fire situation as guidance suggests a strong and dangerous MCS/MCC/BOW ECHO is set to develop monday afternoon in the midwest.. and charge down through the midsouth into the southeastern U.S.

Folks in these areas will need to monitor their weather with a close eye as we start the new work week.




https://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

looks as though 0z models hav backed off some with the idea of a strong mcs... one does form, it seems mid. tennessee has the best chance... then heat looks to build back in with ridge... this pattern is getting old.... i am so ready for fall... just for cooler temps for one, and more organnized severe system chances.

The unfortunate part of mesoscale..There is not much way to judge how strong an MCS is aside from the way it looks on mesoscale models. The NAM has been VERY consistent with this feature. I wouldnt let my guard down out towards your way Bruce

6z


700mb Vertical Velocity (Forcing)



I will say that the 4km NAM is not as bullish as the 12km NAM is with this feature. This is a favorable pattern for someone out in middle and west TN to get a very strong complex ...if it dont happen tomorrow its still likely going to happen this week sometime. Just too much energy in close proximity to that heat ridge...and a complex will take advatage of that sooner or later. Very active pattern we have here

Tuesday an even more intense looking bow echo takes aim on most of the state and on into the SE

looking like a mcs trying to develop up stream in central missouri... if that get its act together... that could effect most of west tn later this evening.

tennessee storm09 wrote:looking like a mcs trying to develop up stream in central missouri... if that get its act together... that could effect most of west tn later this evening.

Thats the one the NAM has been keying in on for you guys..but it looks like its gonna be morning before it gets to western TN.. so says the nam.

4km NAM finally picked up on what the 12km had for the last two days West TN MCS/BOW ECHO