Summer 2012 WX Discussion
+16
cliftown04
Connie
buddy17474
windstorm
Math/Met
Coach B
Dyersburg Weather
VFL
Vanster67
Stovepipe
Jed33
Adam2014
tennessee storm09
WxFreak
snowdog
Toot
20 posters
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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion
Pretty major rain here. It has been raining here solid for almost 4 hours, and it looks to continue for awhile. Good stuff!! The lightning from earlier tonight was fantastic!!! Alot of good boomers!! Hope to see some more storms later today. Will it all be to the south of us??
Vanster67- Admin
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Age : 57
Location : Monterey, TN
Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion
Picked up 1.5" last night, thank you very much!!!!!!
VFL- Member
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Age : 49
Location : North Knox County
Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion
im camping...and will have no internet access. everone have a good wknd
Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion
Over the last 2 weeks i have received around 9 to 10 inches of rainfall. My well has been running over the top. The guy next to me as had to pump water out of his swimming pool last few days. But at the airport they say we are still below normal. They may be, but north of the Tennessee River we are not. Most always rains more north of the airport. Last night we received 1.50 inches. Today we have gotten .70 and still raining. My garden looks like a forest. Not complaining just saying what a turn around in the last two weeks. Weather channel yesterday showed the next 10 days in the south little or no rain except maybe a pop up storm. We will see.
windstorm- Member
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Location : Harrison, tn
Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion
next week could get really sweltry as the ridge builds in over the mid miss. valley... west tn will flirt with the century mark once again... but whats after that is really sweet if it holds... cold front looks to push in by next weekend with a shot of rain followed by some of the cooler air in quite a while... fact parts of the volunteer state may see lows mid 50s... this is just right around truncation... we see if thhis holds.
tennessee storm09- Severe Wx Specialist
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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion
We could have some severe weather as well, with higher shear and instability.tennessee storm09 wrote:next week could get really sweltry as the ridge builds in over the mid miss. valley... west tn will flirt with the century mark once again... but whats after that is really sweet if it holds... cold front looks to push in by next weekend with a shot of rain followed by some of the cooler air in quite a while... fact parts of the volunteer state may see lows mid 50s... this is just right around truncation... we see if thhis holds.
Adam2014- Founding Member
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Location : Lawrenceburg,TN
Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion
great point adam... later this week... the ridge looks to be shifting pretty west allowing nw flow...storms will tend to form over top edge of ridge n ride down from the nw direction... i am agreeing with cosgrove... fairly potent mcs which could even be classified as a derecho type system late in the week setting up east.Adam2014 wrote:We could have some severe weather as well, with higher shear and instability.tennessee storm09 wrote:next week could get really sweltry as the ridge builds in over the mid miss. valley... west tn will flirt with the century mark once again... but whats after that is really sweet if it holds... cold front looks to push in by next weekend with a shot of rain followed by some of the cooler air in quite a while... fact parts of the volunteer state may see lows mid 50s... this is just right around truncation... we see if thhis holds.
tennessee storm09- Severe Wx Specialist
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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion
From my FB blog
https://www.facebook.com/WxeastIve tried to hone in on the track of a strong storm complex that will take place tomorrow evening. IMO the areas that are shaded will have a higher risk of of severe weather tomorrow. The main threat with this will be very high wind speeds that will likely damage some structures tomorrow as the strong storm complex begins to bow out and race southeastward. If you live in or close to the highlighted areas you will need to pay close attention to your weather tomorrow afternoon and evening.
Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion
SPC also put NE TN under the gun
Looks like a possible Derecho today as Severe Thunderstorm watches are already active upstream with the complex that will move through southern Appalachian region this evening around 5pm. Everybody in NE TN stay safe this evening..its probably going to get pretty rocky
Looks like a possible Derecho today as Severe Thunderstorm watches are already active upstream with the complex that will move through southern Appalachian region this evening around 5pm. Everybody in NE TN stay safe this evening..its probably going to get pretty rocky
Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion
From JKL
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1216 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012
MCS IN SOUTHERN OHIO HAS TAKEN MORE OF A TURN TO THE SOUTH AND NOW IS
LOOKING LIKE IT MAY TAKE AIM ON MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS BEEN PRODUCING PRETTY WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AS IT HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD
UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012
MCS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD AND A WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS
THIS SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECTED
ARRIVAL TIMES IS FROM AROUND 1 PM IN THE NORTH TO 5 PM IN THE SOUTH
(NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER). STILL RECEIVING LOTS OF REPORTS OF
DAMAGE TO THE NORTH...SO THINGS COULD GET VERY INTERESTING IN OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH AREAS IN OUR
SOUTHWEST ALREADY VERY UNSTABLE WITH 3000J/KG OF SBCAPE.
Math/Met- Meteorologist
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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion
Quick synopsis of the current wx situation. Although the main show looks to only effect NE TN..a new MCS could be in the making along an outflow boundary extending back into eastern and central KY..this complex will have a pretty unstable airmass to work with and would affect a bigger part of middle and eastern TN this evening and tonight. Will be interesting to see it unfold
Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion
I think I am going to jump in the truck and head east just so I can see it rain more than a tenth of an inch at one time.
Dyersburg Weather- Banned
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Location : Dyersburg , TN
Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion
i will be glad when this freaking ridge goes far enough west or breakdown completely so we can get in on the actionToot wrote:Quick synopsis of the current wx situation. Although the main show looks to only effect NE TN..a new MCS could be in the making along an outflow boundary extending back into eastern and central KY..this complex will have a pretty unstable airmass to work with and would affect a bigger part of middle and eastern TN this evening and tonight. Will be interesting to see it unfold
tennessee storm09- Severe Wx Specialist
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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion
Looks like yall will get your wish this weekend as the ridge retrogrades westward.
Man...talk about a hostile pattern for tropical development.
Man...talk about a hostile pattern for tropical development.
Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion
yeah, i have my eyes on that also... models are trying to develop a stronger front just beyond truncation... hopefully we start to see a pattern change were fronts make it through more often, along with more rain.Toot wrote:Looks like yall will get your wish this weekend as the ridge retrogrades westward.
Man...talk about a hostile pattern for tropical development.
tennessee storm09- Severe Wx Specialist
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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion
I just saw on the local news that the Tri-Cities Airport has already broken the monthly rainfall record for July (10.26 inches). Pretty amazing considering how dry everything was just a few weeks ago.
Math/Met- Meteorologist
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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion
Here is some additional information from MRX. TRI had more heavy rain overnight.
Tri-Cities airport currently sits at 12.08 inches of precipitation for the month of July. Not only does this break the old monthly record but this also breaks the all time wettest month on record. The previous record was August 2003 with 11.34 inches.
Math/Met- Meteorologist
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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion
That is pretty amazing M/M considering how dry they were just a few weeks ago.
Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion
Pretty early SVR outbreak expected to ramp up tomorrow
SPC went Moderate today
Here's what I came up with on my blog last sunday
Nice to have the SPC coming on board...Be interesting to see such a rare event for this time of year
SPC went Moderate today
Here's what I came up with on my blog last sunday
https://www.facebook.com/WxeastAn unseasonably strong low pressure system is set to traverse the upper eastern United States later in the week. This system will likely cause organized severe weather in the form of Tornados..Hail and Damaging winds. Areas in the shaded area will need to keep an eye on their local weather this week
Nice to have the SPC coming on board...Be interesting to see such a rare event for this time of year
Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion
Good call there Toot! Lined up pretty good with your thoughts. I would like a rumble or two of thunder here!
Vanster67- Admin
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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion
We're planning to drag the camper to Norris for the weekend. I'd like to setup Friday evening but would rather not do it in pouring rain (once setup I don't care). The WRF doesn't show this being too big of a deal. MRX says 60% chance for the day. What do you guys think?
Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion
I started noticing on the GFS about a week ago that it keeps wanting to beat down the ridge and bring cold fronts every couple days down from canada.
Looks like we'll have a nice fall pattern setting up in late august if this continues. I'll take it.
Looks like we'll have a nice fall pattern setting up in late august if this continues. I'll take it.
jmundie- Winter Specialist
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Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion
Stovepipe wrote:We're planning to drag the camper to Norris for the weekend. I'd like to setup Friday evening but would rather not do it in pouring rain (once setup I don't care). The WRF doesn't show this being too big of a deal. MRX says 60% chance for the day. What do you guys think?
I don't know if this helps any, but this is a quote from SPC for tomorrow's severe wx outlook:
OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC...
RELATIVELY NEBULOUS SURFACE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT ON D1. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY FIELD WILL LIKELY BE FRACTURED...A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET CENTERED FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. THIS BREEDS POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 25-45 KT WLYS AT 500 MB.
THE MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR TSTM INITIATION ON FRI AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE MIDWEST/LOWER OH VALLEY. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE GREATEST IN THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CENTERED ACROSS LOWER MI AND AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE DIFFERS SUBSTANTIALLY WITH THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IN THE REGION WHICH MAY BE RELATED TO OVERTURNING ON D1. SUSPECT WITH STRONG HEATING...NAM-RELATED GUIDANCE MAY PROVE CLOSER TO REALITY. WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR...PRIMARY THREATS SHOULD BE BOTH SEVERE WIND/HAIL.
Sounds like storms will be less organized tomorrow, but with any clusters that do develop severe wx is a possibility. It's almost a crapshoot if any one area will see strong storms. I'm sure some will, but some areas may escape significant rain altogether.
WxFreak- Founding Member
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