Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-08-01, 9:37 pm

storm little earlier near cleveland tn, bradley co. actually went tornado warning... had nice gate to gate for a minute or two.

by **Toot** 2012-08-02, 8:34 am

Man..Ive never heard it thunder so much. It started thundering here around 3-4pm yesterday and it continued off and on til about dark.

by **WxFreak** 2012-08-02, 9:28 am

Toot wrote:Man..Ive never heard it thunder so much. It starting thundering here around 3-4pm yesterday and it continued off and on til about dark.

I noticed it too. I didn't get much rain for these storms, but the thunder was non-stop. It rolled and rolled without much pause for hours. It was almost a bit spooky how continuous it was. At the very least, it was unusual.

After observing the large anvil structures to these storms, I would have to say we were hearing the thunder from the lightning in the upper part of the cloud for most of the time. Even after the storms weakened, the lightning kept going in the anvil formations for hours.

by **Toot** 2012-08-02, 8:23 pm

Looks like a Land cane..lol heading for portions of the state overnight

Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 19 Anim_serc

by **Toot** 2012-08-02, 11:43 pm

This is going to feel good as it sweeps across the state. First clean cold front ive seen on the models in a long time. These will just get stronger and cleaner as we get closer to fall

Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 19 2ai556q

Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 19 2ai556q

by **Adam2014** 2012-08-03, 9:23 am

Yeah I am loving the look of this cold front coming up for sure.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-08-03, 3:09 pm

A decent little line of storms has broken out in middle TN heading for the plateau. We'll see if she holds together and thumps the valley.

3:08pm

Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 19 2z4kepv

Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 19 2z4kepv

by **jmundie** 2012-08-03, 3:36 pm

All models now on board for a great shot of cool dry air early in the week - up to normal daytime highs for a few days, then ridge annihilation.

Bring on winter

by **Stovepipe** 2012-08-03, 3:48 pm

Far east TN getting some good stuff:

3:46pm

Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 19 If4k0k

by **snowdog** 2012-08-03, 4:05 pm

Yeah I won't lie...the 12z euro excited me in ways it shouldn't. A big F.U. to summer 2012. I just hope it is correct. The Euro has been trying to do this in the long range for the last few days.

by **BethD** 2012-08-03, 8:08 pm

It's been a while since I have posted. Grandbaby keeping me busy. But I just have to say "I AM SO READY FOR COOLER WEATHER" !!! Lol. This heat is so getting on my nerves. And to top it off, we will have a nice looking batch of rain heading our way and "poof" it splits right before it gets to us. Part of it will go west and part east. Grrrr.
I gave up on my little garden last month,,and barely keeping my flowers alive. Okay,,,sorry for the rant. I just got excited thinking we might have some cooler temps! I will try to post more,,but my weather is just damn boring and hot right now,,lol. Have a great Friday night! gaah

by **VFL** 2012-08-05, 3:20 pm

Where has everyone been the last couple of days? Nice line of storms coming across the state today with some heavy rain. Is the long range still looking good for some fall like temps by the end of the month?

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-08-05, 4:38 pm

VFL wrote:Where has everyone been the last couple of days? Nice line of storms coming across the state today with some heavy rain. Is the long range still looking good for some fall like temps by the end of the month?

yeah, good question, were is everyone? but yea vfl, nice trough setting up in mid range in the east... gfs indicates anyways... should be cooler with good chances of rain

by **WxFreak** 2012-08-05, 7:14 pm

Been out of town for a few days. Came home to some frog stranglin' rains! Looks like a complete change in our weather pattern this week from hot, to cooler and stormy in east Tennessee. And look at this from JKL for next weekend:

THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL CONJURE UP A SFC LOW OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND AS THIS DEEPENS IT WILL LIKELY GENERATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ALONG A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL THEN SWEEP THROUGH AND OUT OF KENTUCKY BY EVENING JUST LIKE A TRADITIONAL FALL SYSTEM. NICE COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A LINGERING SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND A RENEWED THREAT OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT UPPER LOW.

Already hearing the word "FALL" in NWS discussions. Gotta love it!

by **Dyersburg Weather** 2012-08-05, 9:37 pm

Same on song and dance in this corner of the state. Right at 2 inches of rain over the last 3 months and Hell like temps are taking a toll on things. mad

by **Stovepipe** 2012-08-05, 10:12 pm

I watched that line move across the state today looking forward to a nice hard rain, maybe some thunder. I watched as it seem to hold together going over the plateau. Had my windows open and everything ready to really enjoy it. Sky got dark, the wind gusted slightly, heard one crack of thunder then nothing. On the back end I got a light shower that lasted only a few minutes. Disappointing as I know people all around me got a nice downpour. Oh well, first world problems. Looking forward to the pattern change.

by **WxFreak** 2012-08-06, 6:35 am

Stovepipe wrote:I watched that line move across the state today looking forward to a nice hard rain, maybe some thunder. I watched as it seem to hold together going over the plateau. Had my windows open and everything ready to really enjoy it. Sky got dark, the wind gusted slightly, heard one crack of thunder then nothing. On the back end I got a light shower that lasted only a few minutes. Disappointing as I know people all around me got a nice downpour. Oh well, first world problems. Looking forward to the pattern change.

Yes, I noticed the original line gusted out and dissipated while new storms were regenerated just to the east of Knoxville. I rec'd a little over an inch of rain, but some areas got well over 3-5 inches in tropical downpours. I drove through one of them, and I don't think it could rain any harder, even in a hurricane.

I think your neighborhood will likely see more storms today, as they are already reforming just to your west again. Most of east TN is now under a flood watch for today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
426 AM EDT MON AUG 6 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MAIN CONCERN IS THE PROBLEMS
CREATED BY SOME TORRENTIAL RAINFALL SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS OUR NRN PLATEAU COUNTIES...AND ALSO GENERALLY NE TN COUNTIES ALONG OR SE OF I-81 AND I-40. FLOODING CONTINUES IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN END OF WASHINGTON COUNTY TN AT THIS TIME. BOTH JKL AND MRX RAINFALL ESTIMATES RANGED GENERALLY FROM 3 TO NEARLY 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS. ACTUAL RAIN GAGE REPORTS INCLUDED 5.57 INCHES JUST NW OF THE TOWN OF UNICOI AND MY RAIN GAGE IN WHITE PINE (JEFFERSON COUNTY) MEASURED NEARLY 3 INCHES LATE SUNDAY EVENING FROM A DOWNPOUR OVER LESS THAN 2 HOURS.

SCATTERED CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND K INDICES FROM ACTUAL 06/00Z AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS. ALTHOUGH BEST CONVERGENCE AND LIFT FOR LATER TODAY LOOKS TO BE OROGRAPHIC (RATHER THAN FRONTOGENETIC FORCING)...FELT POPS NEEDED TO BE NUDGED UP TO LIKELY OVER MOST AREAS. WIND FIELDS RATHER WEAK SO I ANTICIPATE A SLOW STORM MOVEMENT EASTWARD...WHICH SUPPORTS A GOOD CHANCE OF MORE NUISANCE TO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. FFG VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE VERY LOW IN ANY AREAS WHERE HEAVY RAINS FELL YESTERDAY. ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR GENERALLY ALL AREAS BUT SE TN AND SW NC...AFTER COORDINATION WITH OUR NWS NEIGHBORS.

by **jmundie** 2012-08-06, 12:28 pm

GFS bringing the serious chill this weekend.

Might have to build a fire in the fire pit. Temps are gonna struggle to get out of the 60s for many on friday and saturday per the GFS.

But I'll take mid 70s.

by **Adam2014** 2012-08-06, 12:42 pm

jmundie wrote:GFS bringing the serious chill this weekend.

Might have to build a fire in the fire pit. Temps are gonna struggle to get out of the 60s for many on friday and saturday per the GFS.

But I'll take mid 70s.

I just looked, that would absolutley have to break records if that were to happen. The low pressure system just kinda sits there and keeps us cool forever!

by **Adam2014** 2012-08-06, 12:47 pm

GFS and Euro are in great agreement with this huge trough. There has to be some severe weather with it though.

by **WxFreak** 2012-08-06, 1:13 pm

Rain & storms have been pretty anemic today. Don't think our flood watch is really needed at this point unless some serious heavy storms get going soon.

by **Toot** 2012-08-06, 7:17 pm

A fall like pattern change has emerged on most guidance products starting with an unseasonably deep trough of low pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere. This trough of low pressure will spawn a surface low towards the end of the workweek that will be reminiscent of a weak nor'easter type of system.

Temps may get down into the 40's in parts of the Appalachian mountains this coming weekend...with 50's common in the lower elevations from the TN valley northward.

Meanwhile tropical storm Ernesto is close to being a hurricane in the Carribean but is no longer any threat to the united states. So..just like that the summer type weather pattern is in jeopardy and its only August 6th.

Jacket weather may be just around the corner!!

Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 19 406350_292651587509267_1586996413_n

Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 19 406350_292651587509267_1586996413_n

by **Stovepipe** 2012-08-06, 9:27 pm

Toot wrote:A fall like pattern change ...

Jacket weather may be just around the corner!!

Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 19 11avhno

by **VFL** 2012-08-06, 10:17 pm

Toot wrote:A fall like pattern change has emerged on most guidance products starting with an unseasonably deep trough of low pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere. This trough of low pressure will spawn a surface low towards the end of the workweek that will be reminiscent of a weak nor'easter type of system.

Temps may get down into the 40's in parts of the Appalachian mountains this coming weekend...with 50's common in the lower elevations from the TN valley northward.

Meanwhile tropical storm Ernesto is close to being a hurricane in the Carribean but is no longer any threat to the united states. So..just like that the summer type weather pattern is in jeopardy and its only August 6th.

Jacket weather may be just around the corner!!

I just went from 6 to midnight.

by Vanster67 2012-08-07, 7:17 am

Stovepipe wrote:
Toot wrote:A fall like pattern change ...

Jacket weather may be just around the corner!!

Yesssssss!!!!!!!!!! wash

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