Summer 2012 WX Discussion

west tn and midsouth placed under a slight risk on monday for severe weather... this threat may be best threat we had in some time... low track getting further south with each system here latley... the low level jet looks really nice with some decent shear... this could get interesting.

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0 Wunderground won't let me post a picture, but look at the trough on the GFS at hour 177. That is a huge trough and there is some hints of the 540 line already returning to Southern Canada in that model run.

what a nice day it is......70 and bluebird skies
"

I am under a slight risk of severe weather tomorrow, I have been looking at the WRF and there will definitly be some shear in the 0-1 KM range. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Adam2014 wrote:I am under a slight risk of severe weather tomorrow, I have been looking at the WRF and there will definitly be some shear in the 0-1 KM range. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

good point... you throw in very unstable air mass out ahead of front... nam has been hinting at a few super cells even.

Supposed to be down in the 50's in the wee AM hrs..brrr

Next weekends trough looks even stronger and looks to be the strongest/deepest yet.

All signs pointing towards a cold fall.

http://www.weatherbellmodels.com/weather/gfs/2012081218/conus/gfs_z500_uv_vort_conus_55.png

tennessee storm09 wrote:

Adam2014 wrote:I am under a slight risk of severe weather tomorrow, I have been looking at the WRF and there will definitly be some shear in the 0-1 KM range. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

good point... you throw in very unstable air mass out ahead of front... nam has been hinting at a few super cells even.

It will be very interesting for sure, the WRF has been hinting at shear for a couple of days now. It is all going to depend on if we stay clear tomorrow morning.

Oh yeah it got down to 43 on Leconte this morning at twilight...pob hit 30'S in the am tonight

52 here Sunday morning, felt like October all weekend.

Got down to 56 here this morning at daybreak. Now bring on that next trough!!

Yeah, awesome weekend and the models are lookin good. Starting to get pumped for fall and winter!

Every August it seems the "feel" of the air changes. Yeah, it's still summer, and it can still be hot and humid--but you know that change is a comin'. The crickets and katydids start singing (late summer and early fall is mating season for the katydids). Other sounds disappear, such as the call of the Whippoorwills and bull frogs. Early morning fogs become the norm as the nights start getting longer. Trees stop growing, and some species like the hickories start dropping leaves, along with their crop of hickory nuts for the fall season. Every season has it’s “feel,” but the transition seasons of spring and autumn are my favorite times of the year.

Wow...pretty deep upper trough coming into the east U.S. late week into this weekend.

This line means business. Several cells capable of over 1 inch hail.

10:26am

Today's line is devolving into sloppy weak sauce as it moves eastward. Hopefully tomorrow's activity along the front will allow for some boomers.

2:22pm

Stovepipe wrote:Today's line is devolving into sloppy weak sauce as it moves eastward. Hopefully tomorrow's activity along the front will allow for some boomers.

2:22pm

With dew points currently running only in the upper 50's to lower 60's, and temps barely above 80 right now, the line of thunderstorms will probably continue to weaken into showers or light rain as it moves into East Tennessee. Just not enough gasoline in the atmosphere to spark strong storms here today.
I'd say the southern valley has the best chance of a strong storm, as moisture transport is probably a little better into that area.

12z Euro still showing a nice healthy cool front in a few days. Quite amazing for this time of the year.

snowdog wrote:12z Euro still showing a nice healthy cool front in a few days. Quite amazing for this time of the year.

looks like this is fixing to be the pattern perhaps taking shape... front after front... gfs shows this long range also. weather fixing to get a little more interesting down the line it looks

Storms in western TN and northern MS are in an enviroment that will aid in tornadogenesis. Not an outbreak by no means but conditions are there for an isolated TOR or two. Keep an eye out if you live out that way

WxFreak wrote:Wow...pretty deep upper trough coming into the east U.S. late week into this weekend.

That's definitely a site for sore eyes freak

Spose to be in the 50's here again tonight.



LMAO

*Definitely I learned it like this def-i-nite-ly just pronounce it like that when spelling it like that and it will stick with you forever lol.and it never stops when ever you write/type it out (trust me..).
Also I am so glad to see this summer go (and all summers for that matter).
I know its not officially over yet but we are seeing alot of strong signs of a fall pattern taking place very soon so we wont have much more summer to go.

This trough is really going to be big and hang around for a few days. Not looking like a big severe weather outbreak as shear is very undirectional, there will be some heavy rain with some embedded thunderstorms. Then the trough comes in with some pretty stout winds at 20-25 mph from the Northwest. Then after this trough the pattern pretty much goes zonal with a vigorous shortwave to the North.

I, for one, am glad to see this summer on the wane. While East Tennessee escaped the drought's clutches before it became severe/extreme, the mid June to mid July extreme torch didn’t make for enjoyable cook-out weather by any means. And what is summer without back yard barbeques? Last weekend was only my second one since May.

Can't post it right now but look at radar. Sure hope it keeps building and coming. Even Tornado warnings in Illinois.