Hurricane Isaac

by **Toot** 2012-08-21, 8:30 am

Good Morning!!

A tropical cyclone has formed this morning in the central Atlantic. Its a rather large system so it will take a while to become organized. There is an anomalously strong subtropical high pressure system to the systems north which should keep any recurve out to sea possibility rather low.

Guidance does indicate a possible weakness near the east coast and if the system were to gain organization quickly then an east coast landfall would not be out of the question in my opinion. Right now it looks like Florida is the most likely state that could be in the crosshairs of this system.

The intensity and track forecast are both rather tricky. Ive outlined the areas in red that this system could still possibly affect. There is many obstacles that will more than likely keep this from becoming a strong hurricane...but it doesnt take a strong Hurricane to cause damage. If you reside in or close to the red shaded area I suggest you keep your eye on this system!

Hurricane Isaac 309174_297567337017692_1695276938_n

Hurricane Isaac 309174_297567337017692_1695276938_n

This is a possible threat to the SE US..so I thought it was threadworthy

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-08-21, 8:42 am

the euro has her going towards the gulf side of florida... gfs has her going near the georgia coast line... savannah perhaps.

by **Toot** 2012-08-21, 5:37 pm

The NHC deemed Isaac this evening..Pressure @ 1006Mb Winds @ 40MPH

They also adjusted their track northward after having it south of the islands and into the gulf this morning
Hurricane Isaac 205537W5_NL_sm

Still disorganized..that will probably change tonight
Hurricane Isaac Rb-l

by **Toot** 2012-08-21, 5:57 pm

12Z Euro has major Hurricane in the gulf Hurricane Isaac F240

Nogaps and CMC are east strong hurricanes on the east coast..
Hurricane Isaac Cmc_mslp_uv10m_east_25

Im going with the weasker gfs at this point that sends it into FL

by **skillsweather** 2012-08-21, 6:48 pm

What way do hurricanes turn when they get stronger? Like tornadoes tend to turn right when they get stronger.

I would bet that is what will make the path for this hurricane. If it can gain alot of strength then it will move more west but if it cant then it will get sucked into or blocked by a nearby whatever (trough, low,high or whatever lol). But idk just what I am guessing. Am I anywhere near close? Smile

by **Toot** 2012-08-21, 7:02 pm

Here is my latest thoughts and cone of uncertainty!

Tropical storm Isaac has been deemed by the National Hurricane center this evening. His pressure is currently listed at 1006Mb with his winds at 40MPH.

Still no agreement on his track.. as the Euro has a major hurricane in the gulf of Mexico..the Canadian model has major Hurricane in the Carolinas and the GFS right between those two as it takes a weaker cyclone into Florida.

One thing that has changed in guidance is the intensity!! Most of guidance has trended much stronger with this storm and people on the gulf and east coasts need to be paying close attention to this system... as there is alot of uncertainty amongst guidance as far as track goes.

Isaac has moved into warmer waters and away from alot of the dry air and shear that hampered development for quite a while. As far as intensity goes.. I expect Isaac to become a hurricane late tomorrow night into the AM. After that.. its really up to the precise stormtrack as to how strong he becomes. If he misses the higher elevated islands.. then a strong Hurricane becomes that much more likely.

Here is my latest idea of where Isaac is possibly headed! Notice how HUGE this cyclone is..I put a big red circle around all the cloud tops that he is currently banding

Hurricane Isaac 295270_297737357000690_1952148783_n

Hurricane Isaac 295270_297737357000690_1952148783_n

https://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

by **Toot** 2012-08-21, 7:06 pm

skillsweather wrote: If it can gain alot of strength then it will move more west

Normally in the atlantic..the stronger the more poleward (North) the cyclone goes. The weaker the more west it will make it

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-08-22, 5:36 am

oz euro last nite sneaky

by **Toot** 2012-08-22, 8:32 am

Good Morning

Tropical storm Isaac has definately consolidated this morning as his circulation seems to have become tighter as he has taken on a more classic look.

I have not been able to narrow my cone of uncertainty down at all. Guidance believe or not.. is still not agreeing on much. GFS/CMC/ECM all have a completely different scenario. Even though the GFS has trended stronger this morning. The ECM still represents the worse case scenario with a "Katrinaisk" type storm and track.

Everybody on any coastline in the southeastern US should be on guard as this is looking more and more like a legitimate threat.

This mornings 0z ECM is no joke if its correct

Hurricane Isaac 378248_297902176984208_1651965587_n

Hurricane Isaac 378248_297902176984208_1651965587_n

by Vanster67 2012-08-22, 8:42 am

Toot wrote:Good Morning

Tropical storm Isaac has definately consolidated this morning as his circulation seems to have become tighter as he has taken on a more classic look.

I have not been able to narrow my cone of uncertainty down at all. Guidance believe or not.. is still not agreeing on much. GFS/CMC/ECM all have a completely different scenario. Even though the GFS has trended stronger this morning. The ECM still represents the worse case scenario with a "Katrinaisk" type storm and track.

Everybody on any coastline in the southeastern US should be on guard as this is looking more and more like a legitimate threat.

This mornings 0z ECM is no joke if its correct

Boy, that just looks SCARY anywhere it would go. Stay away from my Family in Florida~!!!! uh oh

by **Toot** 2012-08-22, 8:53 am

This is the cone from the NHC yesterday (Its still about the same)

Hurricane Isaac 115530W5_NL_sm

This is the cone from exactly one year ago to the day for Hurricane Irene...lol look familiar? beer

Of course Irene played tricks on the NHC...lol

This is what verified

by **snowdog** 2012-08-22, 8:57 am

Bastardi still hanging with his call of running up the east coast of Florida.

by **Toot** 2012-08-22, 9:22 am

I always liked intellicast's satellite for Tropical Cyclones in the Atlantic. Very detailed in regards to hot towers and outflow/inflow

Hurricane Isaac Hicbsat_None_anim

This is gonna be a fun one to track. If the Euro is correct...I hope the people in New Orleans learned a lesson. yikes

Im reminded of the FEMA evactuation plan "Run Bitch Run"..lmao!!

by **windstorm** 2012-08-22, 1:00 pm

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/06/gfs_namer_228_1000_500_thick.gif GFS at 228 hours out show it backing across Tennessee. If this happen and it's a long way out may be a good rain for some of the SE. But any thing can happen. We will see. There are so many IF's AND's and But's right now.

by **Toot** 2012-08-22, 6:17 pm

Good evening!!

Tropical storm Isaac continues to churn in the Carribean this evening with pressures of 1004Mb and winds of 45 MPH. He is a very large system...in fact he is large enough to have two competing circulations. This is the only reason why he is still rather weak at the moment.

One of the circulations will likely become dominant sometime tonight into the morning. Satellite presentation will become more organized and his pressure will then begin to drop. Wind speeds will start race upward as he moves WNW. Guidance has become a little clearer today with the track of this system...therefore I have began to narrow the cone of uncertainty down on my forecast.

Intensity forecast is still a crap shoot due to all the islands that he could possibly interact with. But guidance has also become much stronger with that again today. His look on satellite is steadily improving...so it probably wont be long until we get a clearer picture of how impressive/large this cyclone will be when he starts wrapping convection around one center instead of two!

Here is the updated cone with a a track line and a general intensity forecast.

Hurricane Isaac 293115_298061426968283_95111006_n

Hurricane Isaac 293115_298061426968283_95111006_n

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-08-22, 7:20 pm

i happen to contact the NHC today and talked to a forecaster at noon... he said it may be at least 2 days for we have a good handle on tracking... he said to me anyone from lake charles to savanah georgia need to pay attention... alot of ifs

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-08-22, 11:18 pm

latest gfs ensembles have 2 frames now going over west tn, another over central arkansas... trend seems to be ever so more west still it seems

by **Toot** 2012-08-23, 8:59 am

Good Morning

Even though satellite presentation continues to improve the storm still lacks deep organization. The size of this storm is slowing the intensification rate down compared to what I first thought but sooner or later Isaac will go boom. Im still going with yesterdays track and forecast cone.

In other news this morning...The 0z Euro trended slightly east. I imagine it will keep trending east until it lines up more with the GFS and its ensembles.

0z EURO model
Hurricane Isaac 305065_298236243617468_2087052634_n

Hurricane Isaac 305065_298236243617468_2087052634_n

Consensus

by **jmundie** 2012-08-23, 12:49 pm

12z gfs went west.

by **skillsweather** 2012-08-23, 2:56 pm

Euro move it so far west that Memphis might not even get hit on the east side of the storm. lol

by **Toot** 2012-08-23, 3:07 pm

Lol Skillz.. Im not one to doubt a dependable model such as the euro but I think the 12z euro is too far west with the landfall folks!

Hurricane Isaac 223875_298361086938317_650998740_n

Hurricane Isaac 223875_298361086938317_650998740_n

by **Toot** 2012-08-23, 5:06 pm

Forecast update

As you can see I have finally ruled out an east coast landfall as Isaac has drifted far enough west to no longer be a wind threat to anyone on the east coast. We have also shifted our track west and have kept it at Tropical storm status longer due to unexpected dry air infiltration.

Isaac is still very disorganized due to this dry air and two competing centers. He is drifting mostly west but this mostly westward motion will halt when he decides to intensify.. and he will sooner or later!! Then..more of a NW trajectory will take over. This updated track puts Isaac over warmer water much longer than the previous track did!

Therefore Isaac has a high probability of becoming a strong- major hurricane at some point on his visit to the gulf!

Hurricane Isaac 578765_298391723601920_221105959_n

Hurricane Isaac 578765_298391723601920_221105959_n

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-08-23, 6:53 pm

18 z gfs verifies, memphis n parts of western tenn may even get some severe weather... as center oc circulation rides through littlerock... you can kiss a florida landfall goodbye... ridge is to strong... gfs is just now picking this up... euro may be on to something

by **Toot** 2012-08-23, 7:07 pm

I wouldnt rule out a Florida landfall nor would I rule out a Louisiana Landfall. This is a very complex situation as to which part of the gulf this landfalls in.

Hurricane Isaac Storm_09

by **Dyersburg Weather** 2012-08-23, 9:44 pm

Toot wrote:I wouldnt rule out a Florida landfall nor would I rule out a Louisiana Landfall. This is a very complex situation as to which part of the gulf this landfalls in.

Most of those tracks would work for me. We need a good 6 to 8 inch tropical rain. rock on