Eastern US Winter Storm possible(Thanksgiving timeframe)

by **Toot** 2012-11-09, 10:51 pm

Welp folks..its that time of year again and the first truly winter storm is now showing up around Thanksgiving! The local Cold signal Oscillations are tanking negative around this timeframe and the GFS/Euro/CMC ensembles have also keyed in on this possibility!

Most of the individual ensembles have keyed in on a rather robust LPS over the southeastern US! You have heard me mention the winter of 2009/10 as one of the better analogs and this point it looks like the best analog due to the almost identical AO values of last month and October of 2009! It was about the same timeframe in 2009 (end of Nov when the NAO/AO started to tanks..and sure enough the current AO/NAO is also progged to tank towards the last of November!

Here are the graphics to support my post above!

Here is the AO forecast..notice many ensembles are tanking around Turkey day timeframe
Eastern US Winter Storm possible(Thanksgiving timeframe) Ao.sprd2

Eastern US Winter Storm possible(Thanksgiving timeframe) Ao.sprd2

The same tanking on the NAO forecast!
Eastern US Winter Storm possible(Thanksgiving timeframe) Nao.sprd2

Euro ensemble mean..signaling gulf type low with nice blocking in the higher lats!
Eastern US Winter Storm possible(Thanksgiving timeframe) 2a4z6he

Eastern US Winter Storm possible(Thanksgiving timeframe) 2a4z6he

GFS ensemble mean signaling the same..notice the sexy blocking going on in the higher lattitudes
Eastern US Winter Storm possible(Thanksgiving timeframe) 2h4hvr4

Eastern US Winter Storm possible(Thanksgiving timeframe) 2h4hvr4

GFS OP signaling a Miller A pals

Eastern US Winter Storm possible(Thanksgiving timeframe) Nmna60

I realize its in la la land but it certainly is a good possibility due to all the individual guidance members agreeing on this. Thats almost unheard of at that long of a range!

Fun Times looks likely IMO! cold

by **Stovepipe** 2012-11-09, 11:29 pm

Toot wrote:I realize its in la la land but it certainly is a good possibility due to all the individual guidance members agreeing on this. Thats almost unheard of at that long of a range!

Fun Times looks likely IMO!

Eastern US Winter Storm possible(Thanksgiving timeframe) Gif-drink

by **Toot** 2012-11-09, 11:31 pm

Im now very interested in another Nor'easter via a "Miller A" storm track!! This could mean a snowstorm around the thanksgiving timeframe and this is supported by the NAO/AO Oscillations that are forecasted to start tanking into negative territory and the uncanny multi model ensemble agreement on this LPS!

Right now I consider it a good possibility due to the similar atmospheric signals of a very 09/10ish like winter as I have alluded to for months now! At this point I would give it 60/40 chance of actually happening due to outstanding agreement by all of the more trusted guidance products!

by **Toot** 2012-11-09, 11:59 pm

The NAO/AO is signaling the cold air..think Dec 2009 like cold!!

by **Stovepipe** 2012-11-10, 12:03 am

Toot wrote:The NAO/AO is signaling the cold air..think Dec 2009 like cold!!

Hope so, it will be fun to watch!

hurry

by Vanster67 2012-11-10, 4:59 am

Hey all!! Time to start watching and wondering. I believe this winter will be lots better than last. J. Bastardi on Twitter also looking at Thanksgiving time frame for possible good times!! beer

by **Toot** 2012-11-10, 8:17 am

Everything still looking the same with this mornings 0z guidance package!

by Vanster67 2012-11-10, 8:50 am

Thanks for keeping us updated Toot!

by **snowdog** 2012-11-10, 10:10 am

I'm not buying just yet. I don't see enough cold air to work with. Euro wants to show the low cutoff from the northern flow.

by **Toot** 2012-11-10, 10:35 am

Snowdog..you wont see the smaller scale details line up until we get closer as with any system this far out. Right now its just simple synoptic pattern recognition! beer

by **windstorm** 2012-11-10, 12:04 pm

I use to the hear about a snow on, or around Thanksgiving or sometime in Nov of either 1950 or 51 in Chattanooga area does anyone know of such ?? Thanks.. pals

by **Toot** 2012-11-10, 1:31 pm

windstorm wrote:I use to the hear about a snow on, or around Thanksgiving or sometime in Nov of either 1950 or 51 in Chattanooga area does anyone know of such ?? Thanks..

Here is a little thread/study im currently working on about the storm that you are referring to. Im not finished with it yet..but it still has alot of info concerning The Great Appalachian Storm of 1950!

http://www.tnweatherspot.com/t463-the-great-appalachian-storm-of-1950

by **Toot** 2012-11-10, 4:15 pm

As promised here is todays update on the possibility of the turkey day timeframe system!

The data hasnt changed a whole lot with the exception of teh GFS ensemble predictions of the Arctic oscillation! It has trended a hair more deeply into negative territory which is another good sign for a snowstorm somewhere in the eastern US

Here is the link to that graphic

Eastern US Winter Storm possible(Thanksgiving timeframe) Xf3rpx

Eastern US Winter Storm possible(Thanksgiving timeframe) Xf3rpx

Eastern US Winter Storm possible(Thanksgiving timeframe) 64506_328298847277874_1718918668_n

by **Toot** 2012-11-11, 4:49 pm

Wxeastern is expecting a big dog snowstorm around the Thanksgiving timeframe. Mainly due to the AO/NAO starting to tank into negative territory near Turkey day. I expect this to be a Nor'easter type of system because the synoptic pattern will be very favorable with blocking directly north of the eastern US. Its still a good ways out but very strong signals are showing theirselves in support of a significant east coast storm. It will have alot more cold air to work with than the last Nor'easter due to it being closer to a more favorable climo period.

The small scale details are impossible to pin down at this range but I would say this has a 60 percent chance of happening due to the phasing aspects being modeled by certain members of guidance!

This is my rough guess at a stormtrack and a rough idea of where the snow might fall. The different thing with this nor'easter is that it should start much further south than the last one did.That will give it more time to deepen! Keep in mind this is still over a week away and it will change to a certain degree as always with systems this far out!

by **Adam2014** 2012-11-11, 5:41 pm

This storm track has been showing up a lot, (The Nor'easter), but is that because of blocking?

by **Toot** 2012-11-11, 7:18 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:18z gfs is pretty blah to me... nothing to see...

Toot wrote:you wont see the smaller scale details line up until we get closer as with any system this far out. Right now its just simple synoptic pattern recognition!

I hate having to repeat myself twice in one day...sooner or later you will learn how to use guidance models..(Notice I said models not model) at that range. At this range you have to use the larger scale picture ...You cant look for smaller scale details at this range..you juust notice the synoptic scale signals

Eastern US Winter Storm possible(Thanksgiving timeframe) 64506_328298847277874_1718918668_n

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-11-11, 7:45 pm

like i said toot, its the 18z ... dont sweat it... now the 12 z euro, looked quite interesting

by **Jed33** 2012-11-11, 8:05 pm

Toot, those ensembles looked pretty dang good to me! beer

Here's hoping that the storm comes to fruition. Knowing my luck, it probably will just as we leave town to go visit my parents in Birmingham, AL.

by **Toot** 2012-11-11, 9:50 pm

This will be a threat somewhere in the eastern US...just dont know exactly what region just yet!

by **Toot** 2012-11-11, 10:00 pm

Let me be clear that graphic above is what I think would happen if phasing took place at the right spot. I have never gave this system more han a 60% chance of happening!! This is just the discussion of what could or couldnt happen, Nothing more!!!

by **Adam2014** 2012-11-11, 10:10 pm

Toot wrote:Let me be clear that graphic above is what I think would happen if phasing took place at the right spot. I have never gave this system more han a 60% chance of happening!! This is just the discussion of what could or couldnt happen, Nothing more!!!

Models will have a much better idea once this big cold front moves through the U.S, it is hard for the models to break down 2 storms at once.

by **Toot** 2012-11-12, 7:13 am

I continue to stand by my prediction of a possible east coast storm near the Thanksgiving timeframe. I still give it about a 60% chance of happenining! It will alll depend on exactly when/if the system phases with the polar jet!

by **windstorm** 2012-11-12, 8:03 am

Toot wrote:
windstorm wrote:I use to the hear about a snow on, or around Thanksgiving or sometime in Nov of either 1950 or 51 in Chattanooga area does anyone know of such ?? Thanks..

Here is a little thread/study im currently working on about the storm that you are referring to. Im not finished with it yet..but it still has alot of info concerning The Great Appalachian Storm of 1950!

http://www.tnweatherspot.com/t463-the-great-appalachian-storm-of-1950

Thanks Toot for the info. My Dad use to tell me about a snow on or around Thanksgiving. I remember many time of seeing trace amounts around my area but nothing big. And just for the record this was before my time. Thanks Again.. pals

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-11-12, 9:37 am

The cmc is on board for some possible wintery mischief for parts of Eastern Tn... surface temps may pose an issue for some areas,but none the less, like toot has been saying, the storm is looking likely in the East during turkey time frime week

by **Stovepipe** 2012-11-12, 3:06 pm

Not looking good for cold air on the Euro. I'm thinking even if the indices do crash it may take a bit to see any real results. From everything I'm seeing/reading Thanksgiving snow is a major long shot in the east, especially TN.