Re: Eastern US Winter Storm possible(Thanksgiving timeframe)

by **Toot** 2012-11-20, 9:12 am

Not that soundings are worth a fark at this range and keep in mind this is still a week away but this is a sounding for the Knoxvegas area of the same time as the graphic I posted

Eastern US Winter Storm possible(Thanksgiving timeframe) - Page 5 GFS_3_2012112006_F192_36.0000N_83.5000W

Eastern US Winter Storm possible(Thanksgiving timeframe) - Page 5 GFS_3_2012112006_F192_36.0000N_83.5000W

Likely all snow as it wouldnt have enough to melt because the warm layer is right on the ground basically!

by **Adam2014** 2012-11-20, 9:41 am

This storm definitly is interesting. Huge cold front is going to set up.

by **Eric** 2012-11-20, 9:55 am

andyhb wrote:
Eric wrote:Think it's too early to call for "tornadoes"...I'm not sure we're even going to have an event as the synoptics still look a bit disjointed. This might be because the "event" is still on the far side of truncation. After running through some panels, it looks like the temps/dew points crash as the upper air influences/dynamics arrive...at least in terms of TN. Areas further west might be under the gun, for sure. One thing is for sure, and Bruce nailed it...the wind fields are mightily impressive.
Yeah, I'd have to agree with all of this, although a more progressive solution like the Euro is more likely to translate potential eastward as opposed the GFS (note that the Euro does not have a truncation, it remains as the same resolution throughout, so it is probably more realistic with its evolution should it trend that way as opposed to the GFS).

00z GFS through 168 hrs looks pretty flat, so unless it amplifies a whole lot in the next few frames, we aren't going to have agreement over a more potent system tonight.

6z GFS still a mess w/quasi-zonal flow through the end of the period. NAO/AO still progged to go negative, but at the same time, so is the PNA. Sort of a goofy combination, but this is clearly reflected in the H5 flow with a very small ridge out west and a very shallow trough in the east. 0z Euro pops a surface low over Arkansas, but it migrates nearly due east, effectively keeping the warm sector confined to the I-20/I-59 corridors.

by **Toot** 2012-11-20, 10:25 am

Eric wrote:
6z GFS still a mess w/quasi-zonal flow through the end of the period. NAO/AO still progged to go negative, but at the same time, so is the PNA. Sort of a goofy combination, but this is clearly reflected in the H5 flow with a very small ridge out west and a very shallow trough in the east. 0z Euro pops a surface low over Arkansas, but it migrates nearly due east, effectively keeping the warm sector confined to the I-20/I-59 corridors.

Good points Eric...Im not sure what atmospheric/oceanic feature is giving guidance such a problem but you can definately tell they all have the flu! lol beer

by **Jed33** 2012-11-20, 5:41 pm

Man, I haven't had a chance to look at the models other than what I've seen at American, but by the looks of them, both GFS and Euro, they are what you'd want if you want true winter weather. The Euro is just a little slow ejecting a S/W apparently, and we all know how it's bias is to hold back energy. Both send some seriously cold air down though! Here's hoping for more moisture beer

by **Toot** 2012-11-20, 9:46 pm

Somebody is obviously going to get dumped on with this system but trying figure out exactly where the stormcenter tracks at this point is driving me nutty. Climo will argue for the more northern solution but the pattern will argue for more of a gulf type low. I think it will be one of the two and not a middle of the road solution like most of the current GFS ensembles suggest. Either way... it seems there will be a nice NW flow event in the mountains in wake!

by **Toot** 2012-11-20, 11:37 pm

0z GFS goes back to the Lakes cutter/SVR system

Eastern US Winter Storm possible(Thanksgiving timeframe) - Page 5 LOL_Face

by **Toot** 2012-11-20, 11:38 pm

And yes im on late night model watch...hadnt done this since Sandy! drunken

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-11-21, 5:38 am

Toot wrote:0z GFS goes back to the Lakes cutter/SVR system

yeppers toot, you think your friend named the se ridge for that buddy... im interested again

by **Toot** 2012-11-21, 8:23 am

tennessee storm09 wrote:
yeppers toot, you think your friend named the se ridge for that buddy... im interested again

Lol..I think that is your friend..not mine..jus saying! whiskey

Anyways.. either way the models are definately more amped this morning and the chance of seeing snow fly even here in NE TN seems to have went up this morning. lol!

by Vanster67 2012-11-21, 8:45 am

Toot wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:
yeppers toot, you think your friend named the se ridge for that buddy... im interested again

Lol..I think that is your friend..not mine..jus saying! Anyways.. either way the models are definately more amped this morning and the chance of seeing snow fly even here in NE TN seems to have went up this morning.

YAY !!!

by **Jed33** 2012-11-21, 5:53 pm

Wow, at the model madness right now. Hard to know for certain anything about this, but that there will be a storm somewhere.

by **Toot** 2012-11-21, 7:00 pm

Jed33 wrote:Wow, at the model madness right now. Hard to know for certain anything about this, but that there will be a storm somewhere.

Its amazing to me how early the models cued in on a significant storm system in the eastern US but at the same time have been all over the place with the track of the same storm. If the GFS is correct it could definately get fun in quite a few places. However.. the euro brings the colder pattern on in a much more gentle way. At this point.. I would lean towards a slight trend south and east due to blocking being underestimated by guidance once again.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-11-21, 10:25 pm

i just want to take time n wish everyone a happy thanksgiving... and lets keep our fingers crosse as we head into meterology winter , that we can blow up that se ridge for good this season, get a positive pna. and get the right blocking in the right place ( greenland), so we can get more than just these damn transient cold shots, those arent worth 2 cents in my book. peace out...

by **joereb1** 2012-11-21, 11:31 pm

Amen to that tennessee storm!!!!! Let the frozen tundra commence rock on

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone.

by **Toot** 2012-11-22, 11:25 am

Happy Thanksgiving yall Smile

0ZEuro trended south last night and 12zGFS goes North again. Still no closer to anykind of agreement on this system!

by **etnwx** 2012-11-22, 4:45 pm

Happy Thanksgiving everyone. I'll take all the cold weather and snow we can get, and pray for more!

by **Adam2014** 2012-11-22, 9:44 pm

It is interesting.... The Euro is further South with a weak system, while the GFS is further North with a stronger system. They have no agreement. Both models have a shot of cold air, but then on the GFS there is a warm up into the long range.

by **Toot** 2012-11-22, 11:49 pm

Adam2014 wrote:It is interesting.... The Euro is further South with a weak system, while the GFS is further North with a stronger system. They have no agreement. Both models have a shot of cold air, but then on the GFS there is a warm up into the long range.

Definately an interesting one to follow...were now in the timeframe where snow becomes more increasingly possible as the days go on with the wx pattern. Its been a long year with the last nonwinter and damn't im ready for some action cry

by **skillsweather** 2012-11-23, 1:35 am

I definitely dont want to see no warm ups in any long range from this point on.. Long ranges now are in December.. I hope it was just a Gfs fart and the polar split I heard about happens so this winter can make up for last years.

by **Toot** 2012-11-23, 11:36 am

The GFS has caved into the Euro...now we will need this to trend a little stronger for a nice event. I think that has a good chance of happening. We'll see beer

by **jmundie** 2012-11-23, 5:51 pm

If the pacific doesn't cooperate - were gonna miss out on some great Canadian air.

by **skillsweather** 2012-11-23, 6:44 pm

The CPC has us in above Precip from December-March.. After that everything is basically EC (Equal chances) as I guess they dont predict precip much after that range. They also Have us (almost all of America) in above temps basically from February next year for the rest of the year.. (so I guess they suspect something after winter to keep us warm. Sad

Oh well as long as we can get a cold winter then they can give us whatever after that.

Link to the charts. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/

by **Toot** 2012-11-23, 9:56 pm

The 0zNAM is close to popping a big-time winter storm for much of the region. Just keep in mind its the nam at hr 84 but I imagine the next frame or two would be quite interesting!

by **Toot** 2012-11-24, 9:59 am

Oh god PSU Ewall is down uh oh

Anyways..guidance has come into pretty good agreement on this winter storm this morning and it looks like most of the state will get the shaftola on this one! Now a slight trend south could certainly change things but right now it looks like we are a hair to far south but not so for folks in KY/VA/WV!

Eastern US Winter Storm possible(Thanksgiving timeframe) - Page 5 ZQLMZ

Eastern US Winter Storm possible(Thanksgiving timeframe) - Page 5 ZQLMZ

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