Fall wx discussion 2014/2015

IMBY we have had 5.86 inches of rain so far this October. With only a small chance of rain for this up coming week. Low so far this month, here has been 36 degrees with some light frost. November coming up could be another month of above normal temps.

Could this be the first killing frost/freeze next week for many of us? Or is the GFS up too it's same old tricks. Still a week out be we will see.http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/7d/gfs_850_7d.gif

Looks cold to me. Where's the snow?

Looks like the GFS and some other models are backing off of the cold air that it was showing day or two ago. It still going too cool down but as of right now the cold air don't look as strong as did a few days ago. We all have seen this many times before. Hey, yesterday IMBY I had a high of 88. Airport 85/86. What ever cooling we get will be much better than mid 80's I have been seeing ...

Snowfall (possibly heavy) expected across the highest elevations of the southern Appalachians this weekend))

An early season upper trough/low looks to plunge pretty far south for this time of year and close off over the Carolinas Saturday! With strong cold air advection and plenty of moisture snow will likely fall at elevations above 3000ft! Surface temps will likley dip well into the 20's in places such as Mt. Leconte, TN.. Mt. Mitchell, NC.. High Knob, VA etc etc.

These are the areas im expecting the snow to fall in accompanied by strong and gusty wind conditions. This all begins late Friday night..more on this later..

I was wondering when someone was going to post about the snow.

It's still 3-4 days out, so a lot can change by then. However, it's nice to see snow around our area this early in the year.

This colder air may bring some snow in the Higher peaks of the Smoky Mts.

Looks like the cold/cooler weather will make it way down here with Snow expect in the higher elevations .. Total snowfall not known at this time. Northern valley locations good see snfl/snow showers as of right now. A low pressure off the NC Coast should pump colder air into these areas also. This is always subject to change... Good day everyone...

When looking at NOAA Winter Outlook and you see EC on the map, I think they should change it too DK as in Don't Know. Have a good day.

October is usually our driest month of the year, But not always. This month I have had 6.21 inches of rain. May have a little more before the end of the month.

6.65" so far here. Had 0.64" overnight. Looking forward to Toot's winter forecast.

I will be building a fire when I get home this evening. I love it. I think it's going to be a great fantasy snow season.

The unusual and very strong (for this time of year) shortwave/upper level low is set to drop extremely far south into the Carolinas this weekend. It will bring some of the coldest air seen in this region as far as past Halloweens go. Along with the cold air there will be some wintry precip that will fall.

I believe that this will be MOSTLY (There could be some flakes in the lower elevations if you get under the right dynamics but no accumulations) at elevations above 2000 feet! Light accumulations will be possible between 2 and 3000ft and when you get up above 3000ft...significant accumulations are likely!

MRX forecast..15 to 20 on Leconte and Roan Mtn!!

Am ready for the colder air. It been way too warm. I rather get the warm weather out of the way now, than too have it in January. Thanks toot for the map. I started too post it but back off of doing it. I guess i better go out and cover my outside water pipes just in case.

Its going to be interesting to see how this plays out...one shift at MRX seems to think everyone is gonna get dumped on while the other shift says just the mtns. Bowling ball ULLS are known for dumping huge amounts

I agree with you Toot this looks to be very interesting.

Is the models still showing impressive levels like they was last night?

Yeah..the models are pretty blunt with accumulations..even in the valley. I dont know what to think?? Ive never seen a system like this in October..its new ground to me

I bet areas that don't get much sunlight will do good even in the lower elevations. What type of storm would this be classified? If this is a common pattern this winter my area will get some good snow accumulations this year.

My area looks like it will get the heaviest snow fall around 6:00 am. I couldn't have asked for a better time. I might get some accumulations.

Whatever happens I hope 441 is open. We are heading over from Chatty in the morning. Original plans were to get a lot of Xmas shopping done in Pigeon Forge and eat a good dinner at Calhouns. New plans are to hit the snow on 441 and take some cool pics and videos before heading back down to Pigeon Forge. Either way there will be beer flowing and hopefully some flakes flying. If we get some good snow I will post some pics/videos if anyone cares to see them.

Snowing big flakes in Del Rio, TN

Finally started laying here. It's only about 1200 ft elevation around here.