Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Tom23 wrote:
Eh, kinda, but I thought the labeling was for the average, like 'drier/milder' than average for each region and such?? Like if the average temp in Jan is like 35 but Euro long range is showing 45 to him for the average, he would post warm for us instead of using the average for Canada?? Makes no sense for him to just use Canadian weather averages and use that as a determinant for 'warm and dry' for somewhere in the SE.

tennessee storm09 wrote:happy newyear to you also meth met. i always wanted to become a meterologist... just dint work out. mybe i still will go for it.

tennessee storm09 wrote:happy new year again my friends... just checking in with everybody, since were in swm mode... this will be the year for the historic major tornado outbreak in mid april... i advise yall to get your storm shelters put in the ground now...also calling for a major blizzard for the entire south, make the 93 super storm look like a flurry... that happens in first week in february. happy newyears, stove, reb, toot, adam,snowdog,jumundie,mr golf, john... to all the weather buddies. o keith. happy newyears.

Tom23 wrote:

tennessee storm09 wrote:happy new year again my friends... just checking in with everybody, since were in swm mode... this will be the year for the historic major tornado outbreak in mid april... i advise yall to get your storm shelters put in the ground now...also calling for a major blizzard for the entire south, make the 93 super storm look like a flurry... that happens in first week in february. happy newyears, stove, reb, toot, adam,snowdog,jumundie,mr golf, john... to all the weather buddies. o keith. happy newyears.

Ahem!!

tennessee storm09 wrote:

Tom23 wrote:

Ahem!!

good morning tom, happy newyear to u my man, you should have stayed up n partied with us las night man.

Skillsweather wrote:Hope that never happens that would make me madder then getting no snow. I get 3inches everyone else gets 7+inches both east west and south... North gets shafted wtf global warming again..

I think its safe to say this run of the GFS is the big winner so far for cold + precip. Its the best look for both in the South. Now its bringing the western/Alaska ridging in view at 240 hour, so we're inching closer. From there, it goes all out and pulls in high lat blocking all 3 different areas in the Northern Hemisphere that consolidates late in the run at the North Polar region. Big time Winner for the US to turn severely cold and stormy....supressed flow, etc. The best news is that it has been adamant on this for nearly a week on the 360 to 384 hour panels and now its worked its way up to 240 hours, so it's not backing down. So there's a model war between the big 2 right now, who knows how it goes yet. If the GFS is right at 5H beginning at day 10, the cold starts pushing south by day 11 into the US and sprawls well south and east, meanwhile Pacific systems crawl along the southern boundary with snow, ice, rain chances for a huge region which can be fine tuned later. Its' a dreamy run and no longer that far out in time for the changes to commence, they begin actually by day 5 when the Alaskan vortex , the Polar Vortex and other features in the northern Hemisphere begin retrograding, and from that point on, things start lining up and the pattern change is underway. So that we end up with the opposite of whats currently going on, as far as height anomalies.

John1122 wrote:I don't know if the heat island got to Knoxville or what happened.

4+ inches snows used to be fairly common there, well, when their snowfall average was 12 inches or so. In the last two climate periods it's fallen by 50% down to 6 inches.

Last year was actually what passed for a normal year for Knoxville for most of it's record keeping history, until the 1990s and especially 2000s just killed it.

It's even more amazing that it didn't really do all that well the past two seasons, especially two years ago when it still only managed around 5 inches total in the 2009-2010 season.