Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

joereb1 wrote:Hey guys, I'm just an East Tennessee snow lover from Central Florida. I really like reading your insights. Anyway, I am moving to Seiverville and my wife and I are flying up there the week of Jan. 23rd. I know it's long range but what are our chances of seeing some flakes flying during that week? I would appreciate some of your thoughts.

well i am from west tn... but to me models are indciating a storm around that time frame... but at this time it should be mainly rain... but my east tennesse friends can answer that question a little better, particular the higher elevations, they know that part of the state better than i do

That would figure with my luck. lol. It's all about timing. I've been going up to the Gatlinburg area since I was a kid. Hit or miss. Well, maybe as the models have been right and then wrong. I might get lucky. Thanks.

Continue the Cobbly Knob talk here

https://tootsweatherspot.forumotion.com/t144-cabins-in-the-smokies

You my friend rock. That is all.

The only hope is the 0z Euro Op

GO, GO, EURO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

jmundie wrote:The only hope is the 0z Euro Op

that is a severe outbreak on steroids at 216... plenty of cold air crashing down... out ahead of this system should be plenty of warm juicy gulf air... something is fixing to pop there van. updates as we draw closer

tennessee storm09 wrote:that is a severe outbreak on steroids at 216... plenty of cold air crashing down... out ahead of this system should be plenty of warm juicy gulf air... something is fixing to pop there van. updates as we draw closer

I was wondering about that Bruce.

I'm kinda thinking were gonna have to get this warm up to dislodge the positive nao. It will likely bring severe followed by a snowstorm if this euro run is on to something.

In a pattern where its hard to find any good news in the model graphics there is some good news in the local teleconnection indices. If these forecasts are correct all we will need is a little better cooperation out of the PNA. This is actually one of the better NAO/AO forecasts that I have seen this winter....I just hope this is not another false signal.

0z GFS ensemble NAO forecast


0z GFS Ensemble AO forecast


Current values



Now im not the best indice guy in the world but those dont really match up with 500mb model graphics that I see. Something is starting to smell fishy here... although it could be just where the Pacific is overwhelming the 500mb longwave pattern across the conus...not completely sure

Also the GFS ensembles are picking up on a cutoff low where the Euro has the lakes cutter system...If the ensembles are correct we may have something wintry to track as thet cutoff will have to be watched for a cold core...but if the euro is correct it would be more of a lakes cutter with severe

12z with the cutoff highlighted

I'm starting to think winter might be a wash

Lol...Just when everybody starts giving up...the 18zgfs ensembles say ahhh I was just playing and develops a really nice NAO block towards the end of the month.

Maybe that's what I need to do is give up and we will get a big snow

Maybe I might be at the right place at the right time finally. In Gatlinburg from Jan. 23 to 27. I have not seen snow since I was up there 4 years ago.

jmundie wrote:
I was wondering about that Bruce.

I'm kinda thinking were gonna have to get this warm up to dislodge the positive nao. It will likely bring severe followed by a snowstorm if this euro run is on to something.

yep i agree with you mundie 100 percent.... i really think the warm pattern will be followed by wintery mischief... i seen alot of times i have followed weather were we get a nice warmup, that leads us to a severe system only to be followed by a drastic channge to a winter storm setup... particular since we are still in the heart of winter... this may be a winter without long sustained cold, but something is telling me we are going to get a shot at one big winter event going into february... weather it be a big snow or even a ice storm... time will tell

The weather is boring right now. We got spoiled last winter.

I just wanted it to snow

Toot wrote:I just wanted it to snow

that girl is a victim of what is called model hugging the gfs model... her fantasy storm let her down again.

? wons eht si erehw. ?Retniw siht tisiv ot nwod gnimoc ton rehteaw dloc eht si

Vanster67 wrote:? wons eht si erehw. ?Retniw siht tisiv ot nwod gnimoc ton rehteaw dloc eht si

Is that Romanian?

well I could say yes.... But if you look at it, all the words are spelled backwards for some fun. What does it say?? You can tell I'm waiting on the snow!!

Vanster67 wrote:well I could say yes.... But if you look at it, all the words are spelled backwards for some fun. What does it say?? You can tell I'm waiting on the snow!!

Haha...you got me Vann

Alan Huffman


"After a Preview of Spring for End of January, Colder Pattern Likely for February"

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/medium-range-images-picture#slide=42199331

Apparently the euro weeklies also forecasting neg nao for the first half of February, with colder than normal temps in the southeast.

jmundie wrote:Apparently the euro weeklies also forecasting neg nao for the first half of February, with colder than normal temps in the southeast.

The big storm near the 25th appears to be one of the culprits for this change!