Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

It's nice to see that the NAM now has more support for it's snowier solution.

Not sure if the mets will buy what it's selling but it really looks like 1-2 inches for some parts and up to an inch in others from several model suites.

From 12z NAM

SREF precip map.

GFS P-Type map.

And finally, GFS precip.

Looks like a very light snow may happen over NE Tn if models are correct. I could see a dusting to a half inch happening in the NE Tn/Plateau/SW VA regions, with possibly a little more in the mountains.

With very little snow so far this winter one has to wonder if a nice storm is on the horizon just to meet the somewhat normal statistical snowfall. Of course this could definately be a winter with well below normal snowfall but averages would argue otherwise. At this point a nice storm would be so rewarding and it would be much more enjoyable one as opposed to one following several nice snow events this season.

Just making conversation

WVLT Met said 1-1.5 inches for Plateau/SE Ky, NE TN with a dusting to .5 in the valley from this clipper. JKL mentioned that it had potential for NW flow to kick in for a bit, that should aid moisture.

Heading to a cabin near Gatlinburg tomorrow. Getting some clipper action there would be awesome.

The good thing here is the strongly negative PNA looks to be very brief and then the ridge starts building back out west. If the AO/NAO goes negative towards the end of the month we could still pull off a relatively nice month of winter weather. Remember it only takes one storm to make a good winter here in the SE.

93 is the perfect example of that... the winter of 92/93 at this point was very similar to this winter and then BOOM a historic winter storm even though that storm happened in March. Just saying long range guidance really dont mean very much in the grand scheme of things although its nice to have them on your side.

Toot wrote:The good thing here is the strongly negative PNA looks to be very brief and then the ridge starts building back out west. If the AO/NAO goes negative towards the end of the month we could still pull off a relatively nice month of winter weather. Remember it only takes one storm to make a good winter here in the SE.

93 is the perfect example of that... the winter of 92/93 at this point was very similar to this winter and then BOOM a historic winter storm even though that storm happened in March. Just saying long range guidance really dont mean very much in the grand scheme of things although its nice to have them on your side.

Yeah - GFS has definitely been trying to build a strong ridge in the west towards the end of the run.

Also - the insane warmth seems to be backing off a bit. Our temps over the next week in Nashville look to avg out right about normal.

IMO, there are two possible solutions that could keep the next two weeks from becoming a disaster. One, if the blocking ridge out west doesn't cut off as modeled, it will keep the cold from going too far out into the pacific, which means we'll at least have some shots at cold air, depending on how the h5 flow moves.

Second, and I think the GFS has been hinting at this, the trough under alaska moves out to sea and cuts off, which could build at least some moderate ridging over the west coast, and help push a little more cold air into the central plains and midwest. In that situation, I'd imagine freezing rain could become an issue.

And then we have the nogaps solution, where the blocking high moves further east, and presses the pv much further south.

Temp gradient is strong, I imagine that surface temps bleed further south than this, which, depending on your opinion regarding ice, could be a good or bad thing.

Before that PNA gets settled back down to more winterlike values... there will likely be some record warmth in the east towards the last of January. This will falsely send plants and trees into thinking its spring. I suppose old man winter will come back with a vengance in Febuary... killing all the early buds on the trees and such.

My dogwoods are already showing signs of this.

Toot wrote:Before that PNA gets settled back down to more winterlike values... there will likely be some record warmth in the east towards the last of January. This will falsely send plants and trees into thinking its spring. I suppose old man winter will come back with a vengance in Febuary... killing all the early buds on the trees and such.

My dogwoods are already showing signs of this.

So are you admitting that your winter forecast busted in a huge way? Doesn't appear that -nao will ever make an appearance, and the -ao appears to be brief.

jmundie wrote:
So are you admitting that your winter forecast busted in a huge way? Doesn't appear that -nao will ever make an appearance, and the -ao appears to be brief.

Yes...my winter forecast has busted (you seem shocked) I dont forecast the individual months in my winter forecast like others do (IMO that seems to cut down on bust potential) but even by doing that my winter forecast has still busted given the combined Dec and JAN temps and the lack of several features I forcasted that never materialized.

But not so fast Mundie...Im not so sure that the negative NAO wont appear. If you go back and look at winters with a raging positive AO in early winter the majority of them had a late winter Negative AO/NAO. I suspect that the negative AO/NAO will appear some time in Febuary. The question to me is will it be early enough to cash in? The closer you get to march the more you will have spring like features that pop up..and will fight very hard against any winter weather. With that said...I think the middle of Febuary holds the best potential for a nice winter system.

Toot wrote:

jmundie wrote:
So are you admitting that your winter forecast busted in a huge way? Doesn't appear that -nao will ever make an appearance, and the -ao appears to be brief.

Yes...my winter forecast has busted (you seem shocked) I dont forecast the individual months in my winter forecast like others do (IMO that seems to cut down on bust potential) but even by doing that my winter forecast has still busted given the combined Dec and JAN temps and the lack of several features I forcasted that never materialized.

But not so fast Mundie...Im not so sure that the negative NAO wont appear. If you go back and look at winters with a raging positive AO in early winter the majority of them had a late winter Negative AO/NAO. I suspect that the negative AO/NAO will appear some time in Febuary. The question to me is will it be early enough to cash in? The closer you get to march the more you will have spring like features that pop up..and will fight very hard against any winter weather. With that said...I think the middle of Febuary holds the best potential for a nice winter system.

I think this winter has been good in the sense that it's brought a lot of humility to a lot of meta that attempt long range forecasts, especially the bragadocious ones.

Medium term forecasting is hard enough... There are just too many variables to try and make semi accurate long range forecasts.

That being said, I'm still rooting for roger smith.

jmundie wrote:
There are just too many variables to try and make semi accurate long range forecasts.

That being said, I'm still rooting for roger smith.

The farmers almanac will definately argue with you...they have pretty much nailed the last three winter forecasts in a row. I did pretty decent last winter also...I forecasted the negative NAO that would negate the La nina factor which verified. But this year it didnt...I think a long range forecast can work if you dont get too detailed and specific but it has a larger bust potential than nowcasts or short range by nature.

There is just no way to accurately forecast indidvidual months...but I think seasons can be forecasted with small amounts of accuracy. Long range forecasting is much more accurate than it was 25 years ago and I imagine it will continue to get better.

20 degrees above normal is not something I like to see during January but it is what it is. Somebodys gonna pay for this shit

Toot wrote:20 degrees above normal is not something I like to see during January but it is what it is. Somebodys gonna pay for this shit

Well it looks like I can start playing some golf since temperatures will be pushing 70 degrees.

tennessee storm09 wrote:heck, i might as well pull the cover off the pool and get it ready... get a jump on getting a tan and nice swim.

Lol...70 degrees is certainly going to provoke spring fever...what a weird winter this has been so far. Makes one wonder what the hell spring holds. Its either going to be colder than hell or torchy as all get out. I cant see it being normal at this point.

Toot wrote:

tennessee storm09 wrote:heck, i might as well pull the cover off the pool and get it ready... get a jump on getting a tan and nice swim.

Lol...70 degrees is certainly going to provoke spring fever...what a weird winter this has been so far. Makes one wonder what the hell spring holds. Its either going to be colder than hell or torchy as all get out. I cant see it being normal at this point.

i can already tell you what spring is going to be like, its going to be as just as bad severe weather wise as last spring... and if anybody doubts that, they are full of crap... i am already seeing major signs of things... i make a in depth post later in time as we draw closer to the end of february.

I'm feeling the NAO taking a big late plunge and us having a cold late March/Early April. But what the hell do I know. I should probably take some Pepto.

Stovepipe wrote:I'm feeling the NAO taking a big late plunge and us having a cold late March/Early April. But what the hell do I know. I should probably take some Pepto.

That's bad news for Bruce's severe weather

Stovepipe wrote:I'm feeling the NAO taking a big late plunge and us having a cold late March/Early April. But what the hell do I know. I should probably take some Pepto.

as you get into march, heck even late february... its going to be mighty hard to get any blocking to force the nao going negative, especially in a la nina pattern... and it now looks like nina doesnt wane until april at best.

Hey guys, I'm just an East Tennessee snow lover from Central Florida. I really like reading your insights. Anyway, I am moving to Seiverville and my wife and I are flying up there the week of Jan. 23rd. I know it's long range but what are our chances of seeing some flakes flying during that week? I would appreciate some of your thoughts.

Sorry JoeReb...that timeframe looks to be right in the middle of a strong warmup