Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

by **Toot** 2012-01-11, 6:24 pm

I agree the models are not looking that great in the longterm but they dont match climo or the indices very well...thats why im not buying some aspects of them.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-11, 9:10 pm

Robert:

Just had a chance to see the 12z runs and they don't look good anytime soon for the Southeast to get cold. The problem is the location and orientation of the closed block north and west of Alaska. That would favor the cold to dump east and south of there which is mostly all of Canada and the northern US, with a trough in the Pacific Northwest and western Canada, mean ridging in the southern Plains to Southeast, and a storm track along the southern boundary of the cold gradient. Earlier I thought the storm track would shift more south but so far there's no mechanism to push the cold further south generally than the northern third of the country except on occasion. It's possible that the models will miss an amplifying wave somewhere but that can be anywhere , but still that would tend to move out pretty quickly without a neg. NAO. That's what's hurting, and what we had last year a strong block in Greenland. Had the block formed right over Alaska, it could be a different story, with westerlies generally further south, shifting the cold further south, and any amplifying system then would put us in better chances atleast. So if we do get lucky the next couple of weeks, thats probably what would happen, a sudden amped up, possibly closed system, but we can't see that coming and probably wouldn't until 5 days out or less. Also, this pattern would favor a slighter increased chance of CAD, mostly in NC if any, but with highs sliding out to see so quickly it would have to be perfect timing, again, won't be seen much beyond 72 hours.
Usually big blocking patterns in Winter can shake things up enough to temporarily change the pattern, but so far it's not looking like much of a change in the Southeast from our previous couple of months of mostly above normal temps. We will have to wait a while to see if any effects can occur here. The flow next week looks very zonal, which is not to be trusted but unfortunately when it buckles its' usually not in our favor. Things may change in the second half to third of our Winter.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-11, 11:40 pm

0z GFS says "lol i was just messin with y'all, here's another arctic blast for next week"

cold

by **jmundie** 2012-01-12, 9:35 am

Not until this system moves into the higher latitudes will we have any idea how this new pattern is shaping up.

by **ballpark** 2012-01-12, 1:05 pm

Stovepipe wrote:0z GFS says "lol i was just messin with y'all, here's another arctic blast for next week"

Stove it looks like the 12 gfs has flopped to the cold side. lt looks like a winter storm for Jan 17-18th. What our your thoughts on this?

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-12, 1:13 pm

ballpark wrote:
Stovepipe wrote:0z GFS says "lol i was just messin with y'all, here's another arctic blast for next week"

Stove it looks like the 12 gfs has flopped to the cold side. lt looks like a winter storm for Jan 17-18th. What our your thoughts on this?

Looks like a miss to me, but at least the cold comes in nice and stout afterwards. The GFS is just trolling us at this point.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-01-12, 8:09 pm

man its to bad we cant get any sustain cold to lock in, cause the gfs in mid to long range is full of sw energy... that would be so sweet if only...

by **Toot** 2012-01-12, 8:11 pm

The bad news here is that models seem to be backing away from that negative AO and are developing a negative PNA pattern. There was a change in the pattern but im starting to think that it wasnt a colder one for us.

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 22 Donald%20Sutherland-ALO-045051

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 22 Donald%20Sutherland-ALO-045051

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 22 Bow

by Guest 2012-01-12, 8:14 pm

This Winter will sadly go down as the year without a Winter. So much potential, but so much waste.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-12, 8:15 pm

by **Toot** 2012-01-12, 8:17 pm

Tom23 wrote:This Winter will sadly go down as the year without a Winter. So much potential, but so much waste.

Tom thats not to say we wont get an epic snow...there is still alot of winter left...to write it off at this point is just plain foolish. Its not been a good winter but its not over by a longshot.

by Guest 2012-01-12, 8:20 pm

We made fun of ole Don, but in the end he's gonna be correct. Glad he doesn't post or read here because he would then make fun of us. FML

by **Toot** 2012-01-12, 8:24 pm

Tom23 wrote:We made fun of ole Don, but in the end he's gonna be correct. Glad he doesn't post or read here because he would then make fun of us. FML

I wouldnt worry about it...its all in good fun. Some people take it wayyyyyyyy to serious. hurry

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-01-12, 8:33 pm

Toot wrote:
Tom23 wrote:This Winter will sadly go down as the year without a Winter. So much potential, but so much waste.

Tom thats not to say we wont get an epic snow...there is still alot of winter left...to write it off at this point is just plain foolish. Its not been a good winter but its not over by a longshot.

very true, in a nina pattern, there is alot of time that late ultimate suprise... it wouldnt suprise me one bit to see us warm and get a big severe outbreak ... that could jar the pattern a bit then we may get into some later winter fun still... like the winter of 07 08, which this winter seems to me a fit for a good analog.. we had that tornado outbreak in early february... then just couple or so weeks later, we got that big ull coming through... memphis actually reported blizzard conditions for nearly 2 hours... think they eneded up with 8 inches, i got 6 here in jackson... you never know.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-12, 8:36 pm

Tom23 wrote:We made fun of ole Don, but in the end he's gonna be correct. Glad he doesn't post or read here because he would then make fun of us. FML

First World Problems.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-01-12, 8:38 pm

but my friends, i have already been reading and studying the pattern for next winter, i am going to get the jump on toot. lol, i am seeing a weak to moderate el nino next winter yall... we just may have give this winter up for a big blockbuster winter in 12-13.

by **Toot** 2012-01-12, 8:43 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:but my friends, i have already been reading and studying the pattern for next winter, i am going to get the jump on toot. lol, i am seeing a weak to moderate el nino next winter yall... we just may have give this winter up for a big blockbuster winter in 12-13.

lol

by **snowdog** 2012-01-12, 8:55 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:but my friends, i have already been reading and studying the pattern for next winter, i am going to get the jump on toot. lol, i am seeing a weak to moderate el nino next winter yall... we just may have give this winter up for a big blockbuster winter in 12-13.

If you are close to being right I will send you a 6 pack. Depending on your age will determine beverage type.

by **Toot** 2012-01-12, 8:57 pm

snowdog wrote:
If you are close to being right I will send you a 6 pack. Depending on your age will determine beverage type.

lol... He's old enough for the hard stuff sauce

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-01-12, 11:21 pm

snowdog wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:but my friends, i have already been reading and studying the pattern for next winter, i am going to get the jump on toot. lol, i am seeing a weak to moderate el nino next winter yall... we just may have give this winter up for a big blockbuster winter in 12-13.

If you are close to being right I will send you a 6 pack. Depending on your age will determine beverage type.

thanks snowdog, thats nice of you man... but if i am right, i will buy you a six pack of your choice buddy cause i will be so happy... i really thank we have a good chance of next winter being elnino.

by **John1122** 2012-01-12, 11:45 pm

We will see if it happens, but the 0z GFS builds a 1048 high right over Greenland during this run.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-13, 1:32 pm

by **Reb** 2012-01-13, 2:15 pm

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-13, 2:33 pm

Looks like the weekend clipper may over perform!

by **snowdog** 2012-01-13, 2:38 pm

It would be interesting to know where this winter ranks vs past ones with the AO/NAO. This has to be the worst winter ever on record if you were to compare those indices. This full blown +AO that has gone on for so long is almost unheard of.

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