Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

by **Toot** 2011-12-29, 9:36 am

snowdog wrote:Whoah there big fella, whoah. Lets not get too carried away just yet. I'm as excited as I have been all fall/winter. Finally we have something on the horizon to look forward to. I think the end of the +AO pattern is coming to an end. However, dont get too excited... just yet. There is a tendency for these type of patterns (strong +AO) to re-emerge after a short period of negative. But if, BIG IF, we do get a true pattern change and lock into some blocking, the 2nd half of January and 1st half of Feb. could be something special (for all the reasons you mentioned). Got to temper the enthusiasm right now though. I'm just happy to see some rising heights near the pole in the long term and till then it looks like the PNA will do our dirty work.

Lol...im not that big of a fella....and in all of my years of watching synoptic patterns im about 99.99999% sure that this is the pattern change to a Neg ao/nao.It will be a gradual slide towards negative but they will get there. I'm not being egotistical or anything...but to my knowledge I was the first one to recognize this pattern change at well over a week ago...I became confident enough to make this blogpost on Dec22 but I was talking about this change back around the 18th of this month.

Good Signs Of The Long Awaited Pattern Change

Good Evening and Happy Holidays

The weather lately has been pretty boring unless you like rain (It's certainly not my cup of tea) if you are a regualr reader of this blog you have probably heard me speak of a pattern change to more winter like conditions in several different posts and each time they never seem to stick and that has been due to the lack of blocking signals.

The pattern of late has been one of a "here today and gone tomorrow" type but several well trusted models are in general agreement that this is gonna change abrubtly in the new year. Blocking signals are starting to show up strongly in the NAO and PNA regions....lets not confuse the 500mb signals with the teleconnection signals because they are two different signals and dont always support each other. I expect a strong cold front near New Years that will be transported by what looks to be a clipper type system and if enough cold air is already in place we might get to witness one of those rare snow squall lines that set up along the cold front of some clippers during favorable conditions.

Several forecasters originally called for a cold winter but several of the same long range forecasters have since changed their tune to more of a warmer winter. Not me...im sticking with my guns and I fully expect the pattern change to happen around New Years. The AO has been off the charts positive for nearly two months and that is about as long as that usually happens so our saving grace is that it went positive early in fall and now has nowhere to go but to more neutral or negative values.

Toot

People need to realize that clipper (the one I talked about over a week ago and the one thats being modeld now) is the pattern changing storm. So snowdog im not getting carried away...im just telling you what will most likely ened up happening and Yeah the AO/NAO is fixing to tank like the fell off of a ladder hurry

by **Toot** 2011-12-29, 9:48 am

I expect this to tend quite a bit colder also and I think temps will end up 15-20 degrees colder than normal in east TN and this air will be strictly the cA to cP type

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 12 D4

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 12 D4

by **jmundie** 2011-12-29, 10:00 am

Toot - you're beginning to sound like Bruce last winter with the severe.

If you keep screaming pattern change storm and a tanking ao/nao, I guess you'll eventually be right. You've been calling for it for two months now... We'll see if it finally happens this time.

Personally, I don't think we're gonna see an immediate sustained -nao.... But I do think it will go negative by the second half of the month. How long it holds is anyone's guess though.

by **Adam2014** 2011-12-29, 10:36 am

jmundie wrote:Toot - you're beginning to sound like Bruce last winter with the severe.

If you keep screaming pattern change storm and a tanking ao/nao, I guess you'll eventually be right. You've been calling for it for two months now... We'll see if it finally happens this time.

Personally, I don't think we're gonna see an immediate sustained -nao.... But I do think it will go negative by the second half of the month. How long it holds is anyone's guess though.

Well its good that we are actually seeing something though, I really hope it stays around though.

by **Toot** 2011-12-29, 10:38 am

I admit that I fell for several false signals and busted a few times calling for a pattern change.... but this one is the real mccoy folks...The SE ridge is long gone my buddy..anybody with any meteorlogical knowledge should be able to see this pattern change.

You dont have to believe me now Mundie...but you will in about a week evl

by Guest 2011-12-29, 10:41 am

Yeah, putting a grip on that SE ridge and kicking it out was the key to the cold that is coming in. Now that it is gone, the cold air intrusions have a much, much better chance of not only making it down this far, but also staying locked in for a longer period of time.

by **snowdog** 2011-12-29, 10:54 am

Someone needs to tell the Euro Ens about the death of the SE Ridge. Actually the SE Ridge hasn't been a big deal this fall/winter.

**This post was edited to take out an old image. sauce

**

by **Toot** 2011-12-29, 10:59 am

snowdog wrote:Someone needs to tell the Euro Ens about the death of the SE Ridge.

The GFS ens mean already has smartass

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 12 F240

by **snowdog** 2011-12-29, 11:01 am

jmundie wrote:Personally, I don't think we're gonna see an immediate sustained -nao.... But I do think it will go negative by the second half of the month. How long it holds is anyone's guess though.

That is reasonable Mundie. I think Toot is swinging for the fences here. I'd say there is a greater chance of the +AO regime coming back than there is sustained blocking for an extended period of time (greater than 10 days). This is what past trends would suggest.

by **snowdog** 2011-12-29, 11:02 am

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:
snowdog wrote:Someone needs to tell the Euro Ens about the death of the SE Ridge.

The GFS ens mean already has

The same GFS you have been trashing? (for good reason)

by **Toot** 2011-12-29, 11:07 am

snowdog wrote:Someone needs to tell the Euro Ens about the death of the SE Ridge. Actually the SE Ridge hasn't been a big deal this fall/winter.

Actually that is wrong the 0z euro ens mean at 240 shows no SE ridge...im not sure where you got that image

0zEns mean at 240
Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 12 14w839e

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 12 14w839e

by **Toot** 2011-12-29, 11:09 am

snowdog wrote:
That is reasonable Mundie. I think Toot is swinging for the fences here.

Lol....Just calling it like I see it boys no swinging for any fences here...this is a pattern change whether yall want to admit it or not

by **jmundie** 2011-12-29, 11:39 am

We haven't had a traditional southeast ridge at all this year. Its been more of a northeast/new england ridge.

West of Nashville has been slightly below normal for december.

What I'm worried about is that this trough axis is going to be far too east based to sustain big cold for our area. But even if itsslightly further west, unless we get a wound up super clipper on Wednesday, the cold will be wasted.... and then the big ridge from the west will shift our direction, and a warm up will ensue.

The better hope is in the extended, with the modeled closed high pressure over alaska. But it appears we're gonna need a deep trough moving in from the west central US in order to get a snow this year. Without blocking, the PNA ridge has to be a bit off the coast and move east, and a storm will have to come out of the western gulf, Jan 1985 style.

by **snowdog** 2011-12-29, 11:42 am

[quote="Cyclonicjunkie"]

snowdog wrote:Actually that is wrong the 0z euro ens mean at 240 shows no SE ridge...im not sure where you got that image

My bad Toot. Damn Huffman and his page. I have to refresh each time I go there or I get old images popping up. Double face palm for that. Such a rookie mistake. facepalm

by **Toot** 2011-12-29, 11:49 am

snowdog wrote:
My bad Toot. Damn Huffman and his page. I have to refresh each time I go there or I get old images popping up. Double face palm for that. Such a rookie mistake.

No big deal I make mistakes also his page is confusing and has always had various problems...but I was kind of stunned when you posted that mean with SE ridge....I was like "OMG that damn SE ridge WTF"...and then I said wait a minute there is no way that can be right with the PNA...and sure enough it wasnt....That SE ridge is history....now the west can deal with that ridging while we stay in more troughs...hence the pattern change

by **Adam2014** 2011-12-29, 11:54 am

jmundie wrote:We haven't had a traditional southeast ridge at all this year. Its been more of a northeast/new england ridge.

West of Nashville has been slightly below normal for december.

What I'm worried about is that this trough axis is going to be far too east based to sustain big cold for our area. But even if itsslightly further west, unless we get a wound up super clipper on Wednesday, the cold will be wasted.... and then the big ridge from the west will shift our direction, and a warm up will ensue.

The better hope is in the extended, with the modeled closed high pressure over alaska. But it appears we're gonna need a deep trough moving in from the west central US in order to get a snow this year. Without blocking, the PNA ridge has to be a bit off the coast and move east, and a storm will have to come out of the western gulf, Jan 1985 style.

See that is what I am afriad of. We need to be in on the trough but it needs to be further west so storms can ride up the trough.

by **Toot** 2011-12-29, 11:58 am

Adam2014 wrote:See that is what I am afriad of. We need to be in on the trough but it needs to be further west so storms can ride up the trough.

That will happen as the NAO/AO gets closer to neutral and negative like its forecasted to do...this is just the first stage of many troughs to come

by **Adam2014** 2011-12-29, 11:59 am

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:
Adam2014 wrote:See that is what I am afriad of. We need to be in on the trough but it needs to be further west so storms can ride up the trough.

That will happen as the NAO/AO gets closer to neutral and negative like its forecasted to do...this is just the first stage of many troghs to come

Well I trust you lol.

by Guest 2011-12-29, 12:16 pm

Snowdog, that page is always messed up. Good place though if one takes time to look at the stuff thoroughly and compare it to other data sites, but other than that its a crapshoot. So don't feel bad.

Btw snowdog, just a hint... and this goes to everyone else as far as thats concerned.... look at the date on the bottom left of the image that you posted. See how the date says 12/10/11, whereas Toot's image says '1/08/12' (in backward format, but still)?? That is an excellent starting point for people to look at, making sure that the image that they're viewing and analyzing is up to date and current. Thats a mistake, sad to say, that I used to make when I first started looking at the models and the images, but quickly learned to check afterwards.

Just a word of advice from... 'blackice'.. LOL

by **John1122** 2011-12-29, 2:49 pm

Simplest way to deal with that page is to always hit refresh as soon as you click on them.

by **jmundie** 2011-12-29, 3:05 pm

John1122 wrote:Simplest way to deal with that page is to always hit refresh as soon as you click on them.

Yep - I realized this morning when I was looking at the graphs of the teleconnections from 0Z model suite that it started on 12/24

Oops

by **John1122** 2011-12-29, 6:53 pm

Just read that this looks like it might be one of the only cold shots from now til late January.

Not sure that I believe that, but I am having serious doubts about there being any kind of extended flip to a cold pattern.

This is just very similar to the winter of, I think, 2007-2008 to me. Mostly warm, very positive AO/NAO and when it would briefly flip we'd get moisture chasing cold snow showers/flurries at best and temps back 3-5 degrees above normal within a couple days.

When it did manage to get cold that season for a couple weeks it was generally bone dry. As of now from looking at the CPC maps for 6-10 and 8-14 they are pretty ugly.

Not just for the fact that they show us as normal to above, they show the entire lower 48 that way except for the extreme eastern portions.

As long as you are seeing the upper midwest being well above normal and snow free, we will struggle to get particularly cold because that's pretty much our source for cold air.

Hopefully I'm wrong, but it's very hard to break patterns that have been entrenched as long as the current +NAO/+AO has been in place.

by **tennessee storm09** 2011-12-29, 7:09 pm

jmundie wrote:Toot - you're beginning to sound like Bruce last winter with the severe.

If you keep screaming pattern change storm and a tanking ao/nao, I guess you'll eventually be right. You've been calling for it for two months now... We'll see if it finally happens this time.

Personally, I don't think we're gonna see an immediate sustained -nao.... But I do think it will go negative by the second half of the month. How long it holds is anyone's guess though.

i hear you mundie, yeah i am starting to think it will be later in january before we can see any true negative nao. i am beginning to think our window of opportunity may be narrow to get something big this winter.. like late january to first 10 days of february... then with any la nina there is always that ultimate late suprise in late winter.

by **Stovepipe** 2011-12-29, 7:43 pm

Just want to inject that I like the mix of optimism and pessimism of late with the upcoming weather shenanigans, it's nice to have a variety of interpretations of the data. Who knows how this January is going to unfold, but I like that we have a nice venue for letting all opinions fly and no fear of admins squelching dialog.

Carry on my friends!

by **snowdog** 2011-12-29, 7:56 pm

I'm not worried about the lack of snow in the upper midwest. It hasn't been there all winter/fall and even with a +AO/NAO we have had decent cold snaps and overall haven't strayed too far from average temps wise. There is some serious cold bottled up in the northern latitudes and if we can get a sustained block it will make it's way southward.

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